We are delighted to continue a tie up with Scottish Football Tips who will be providing us with a regular series of free football tips. These guys have a great track record of success in tipping and are well worth a follow on twitter too (@FitbaTips).
It’s three winning NAPS in a row for Pie & Bovril readers and that ties in with our own success over on the Scottish Football Tips website.
You get more there than we have the time or space to write on here but it’s very pleasing that this page has started so well. We are going for NAP number four this week but I have had to change my preferred option due to a decreasing price.
Due to the vagaries of football betting the earlier you get on a price the better, more often than not. I usually start looking on a Tuesday, consider on a Wednesday, back on a Thursday and write this article on a Friday.
On Wednesday I backed there to be under three goals in the Morton v Queens match at 2.35(27/20) with Coral. That price is unfortunately long gone and the best available now is 2.0(evens) with Paddy Power and Skybet.
That was my NAP and to be fair it probably still should be given the stats. Instead though I am looking at the Petrofac Training Cup semi-final from Hampden where Queens Park will hope home advantage gives them an edge over Peterhead. Plenty will see a price of 2.1(11/10) with bet365 on the away side as great value and that’s hard to argue with.
But it being a semi-final I prefer to play with a different market. Latter stages of cup tournaments always (for always read usually) see a decrease in goal production. It’s obvious why.
What also happens is that goals that are produced generally come in the latter stages of the matches, particularly if one of the sides is trailing. That leaves them taking greater risks to score in turn leaving them more exposed. Simple stuff, really.
On this occasion we have two sides who have the stats to back up goals usually being scored in the latter stages of matches. Twelve of the nineteen goals in Peterhead’s away games have been scored in the 2nd half. Meanwhile twenty-one of Queens Park’s thirty-two league goals (scored and conceded) have been in the 2nd half.
Those stats allied to the nature of the game make me think that the second half is very likely to be the highest scoring. Skybet offer evens on that outcome and that is good enough for me.
For the IWAC I am going to Dunfermline who I think are priced up quite high at 2.2(6/5) with McBookie to win. Sure they have drawn two blanks recently but I fancy them to knock back into gear here. Airdrieonians have won just two of their last seven games and The Pars have averaged more than three goals in their away games so far.
I fancy a handicap here too, particularly at a price of 4.3(33/10) with 888Sport. My hopes for this were boosted thanks to The Pars in the forums who noted that they have done very well on astro-turf this season with 0-4 and 0-5 wins away from home.
NAP
Queens Park v Peterhead Highest Scoring Half - 2nd @ 2.0 with Skybet
IWAC
Dunfermline -1 @ 4.33 with 888Sport
Good luck as ever this weekend.