Fudge Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Especially recently, there seems to be a lot of people 'reinvesting' Saturday's profit on Sunday games you'd never normally touch with a bargepole. This is a bad idea. Don't do it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted February 10, 2010 Share Posted February 10, 2010 Question: See if I’m trying to price football games before looking at fixed odds coupons in order to establish where my opinions differ from the bookies, should I do it to a 100% book or build in an overround? I’m thinking the former as I can cut down the overround by shopping around for the best price on each team. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 10, 2010 Share Posted February 10, 2010 Price it to 100%, it's much easier that way. I tend to find the best method is to price the favourite first, then the draw. The draw should be the easiest of the three outcomes to price. Once you've got your favourite and draw odds, if you're pricing to 100%, the outsider odds follow automatically. You will find using this method that on occasion you might end up with the outsider at a silly price. This is especially true if there is a very short priced favourite. For example, from memory Man Utd v Portsmouth was something like 1.17 Man Utd and 9.6 the draw. From this it would automatically follow that Portsmouth should be 24.31 if you're pricing to 100%. However, you might've said that perhaps the draw odds should be 7.2 . A perfectly natural assumption since the draw at nearly 9/1 for a Premier League match might seem a little high. If you have the prices at 1.17 and 7.2, Portsmouth would then be about 155/1. If you priced either Man Utd or the draw any shorter, then you'd have over a 100% book just for the first two outcomes. My point is that it gets easier to do with experience, and sometimes you have to play around with the prices a little bit. When one team is a big favourite, everything is more sensitive using that method I described. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted February 10, 2010 Author Share Posted February 10, 2010 Price it to 100%, it's much easier that way. ...... Good to hear from you, it's been a while. Can you give me your opinion on the Championship, I have Newcastle in a treble that returns about £3k that is looking okay, but West Brom are looking half decent at the moment. Been studying the run ins and it might get a bit too close to call for my liking. Also got Lakers to win the Western Conference Final, can talk more about that one in May! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted February 10, 2010 Share Posted February 10, 2010 Good to hear from you, it's been a while. Can you give me your opinion on the Championship, I have Newcastle in a treble that returns about £3k that is looking okay, but West Brom are looking half decent at the moment. Been studying the run ins and it might get a bit too close to call for my liking. Also got Lakers to win the Western Conference Final, can talk more about that one in May! It has been a while. My visits to this forum have been rather infrequent since last summer, plus not been using MSN much at all either for one reason or another. I'll probably be around quite a lot more the next few months. My gut feeling is that Newcastle will come out on top, but of course you may want to cover yourself. I'm a risk taker in those sort of situations so I would probably take my chances. Although if you remember correctly, a little bit later than this time last year, I was getting Betfair to put Championship season match bets up and sticking thousands up laying Ipswich v Watford @ 1.6 or so! Luckily there were no takers. This time they've already got them up, with pretty much nothing matched on any of them as you'd expect. At least it would probably be much easier to get them to add West Brom v Newcastle if need be than it was to get them put up at all last season. My long-term bets are probably going to make me more than last season - most of the larger bets I've got focus on Portsmouth to do badly. As I posted here before the season, there were some great bets around, I'd have had literally almost everything I owned on them to finish in the bottom half @ 2/7. I'm just hoping Portsmouth go into administration rather than liquidation as I think the bookmakers would cause trouble when it comes to paying out on relegation/bottom half/bottom six/season match bets involving them if they ceased to exist in their current form and all their results were wiped from the records. Lakers are the usual Lakers this season, they might win the NBA Championship easily or lose to a team they really shouldn't. My focus has almost entirely been on the totals betting this season, I've almost stopped caring who actually wins!! Lakers are certainly best of the West, but as usual this is the better conference with a few dangerous teams about come playoff time. I think the Lakers have been too short most of the season and I'd not be a backer at current prices. That said, fluke results in the playoffs are a lot harder to come by than in the NFL or MLB. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted February 10, 2010 Share Posted February 10, 2010 One of the great gambling myths or advice is to not back your own team. I think this is absolute balls, as we as individuals will know more about our own teams than any bookmaker. I find that bookmakers mis price Ross County continually. This season alone they have had us @ 5/4 at minus two goals against Inverurie Locos. We were 2/1 at minus one goal to beat Stirling Albion. Almost 3/1 to beat Dundee at Dens. If you feel that your club is great value please back them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick_BCFC Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 I was in the local bookies last night just putting a small bet on the Everton game. I had a conversation with the guy who owns the shop and it went a bit like this..... Alright mate, what's the price on both teams scoring tonight in the Everton game? Put on another team who's already played tonight with it and i'll give you 5/4 Eh? Put on Liverpool to win as well as your both teams to score. Why? The result is already in? Yeah, its called beating the book. But don't be doing that when i'm not in the office Erm, yeah alright, catch you later Was he pissed out his head? Why did he make me do that? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 I was in the local bookies last night just putting a small bet on the Everton game. I had a conversation with the guy who owns the shop and it went a bit like this..... Alright mate, what's the price on both teams scoring tonight in the Everton game? Put on another team who's already played tonight with it and i'll give you 5/4 Eh? Put on Liverpool to win as well as your both teams to score. Why? The result is already in? Yeah, its called beating the book. But don't be doing that when i'm not in the office Erm, yeah alright, catch you later Was he pissed out his head? Why did he make me do that? I have absolutely no idea, I cannot see any benefit or detriment of doing that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endieinreekie Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Please excuse my ignorance as I am a relative novice in the art of betting, but what is the difference between say a 4 fold bet and a 4 team accumulator? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Please excuse my ignorance as I am a relative novice in the art of betting, but what is the difference between say a 4 fold bet and a 4 team accumulator? They're the same thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endieinreekie Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 They're the same thing. Cheers. I thought that it may have made some difference with the odds. If they are the same then why is there an accumulator option on the coupon? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 Cheers. I thought that it may have made some difference with the odds. If they are the same then why is there an accumulator option on the coupon? I've not seen an in shop coupon in years, but is that down the bottom where it says something like 'single' 'double' 'treble' 'four fold' 'accumulator' and you have to tick one of them. If so, I think up to a four fold they call it a four fold, and after that they call it an accumlator (the 'proper' name would still be '5 fold accumlator', '6 fold accumlator' etc) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endieinreekie Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 I've not seen an in shop coupon in years, but is that down the bottom where it says something like 'single' 'double' 'treble' 'four fold' 'accumulator' and you have to tick one of them. If so, I think up to a four fold they call it a four fold, and after that they call it an accumlator (the 'proper' name would still be '5 fold accumlator', '6 fold accumlator' etc) Yup that's right, although I think it goes up to (at least) nine fold. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 I just checked to make sure I was right and I think I am. Normally, four fold is the highest it goes being called *number* fold, but if on your coupon it goes up to 9 fold, accumlator would mean 10 or more selections. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endieinreekie Posted February 26, 2010 Share Posted February 26, 2010 I just checked to make sure I was right and I think I am. Normally, four fold is the highest it goes being called *number* fold, but if on your coupon it goes up to 9 fold, accumlator would mean 10 or more selections. Cool, cheers mate, was just curious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fueradejuego Posted March 6, 2010 Share Posted March 6, 2010 Especially recently, there seems to be a lot of people 'reinvesting' Saturday's profit on Sunday games you'd never normally touch with a bargepole. This is a bad idea. Don't do it. That's an excellant point and one I normally adhere to. If there is nothing that interests me, I don't bet for the sake of it. I have started betting in play more often particularly if I am watching the game live. Get a win and make a profit then bank it. Don't waste it betting on games in some far flung league for "interest". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted March 23, 2010 Share Posted March 23, 2010 Yes it's a fair point, you have to look at every game in exactly the same way whether it's one of many on a Saturday, or the only game on a Monday night, which also happens to be televised. Although for many people, they bet to give them an interest in televised sport, so they bet anyway. I lay prices on virtually every game anyway, but don't always get matched on the solitary games - I don't change my methods just to make sure I have a bet matched. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambies_Apprentice Posted April 5, 2010 Share Posted April 5, 2010 Away teams are big odds for a reason. Of the 8 games or so I bet on today all the home teams came through, while over the last few days I've backed 6 away teams and only 2 have came in. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted April 5, 2010 Author Share Posted April 5, 2010 Away teams are big odds for a reason. Of the 8 games or so I bet on today all the home teams came through, while over the last few days I've backed 6 away teams and only 2 have came in. You cannot take that in isolation and expand it to a generality. If it were that case then away teams would hardly ever win. So far this season; EPL; H 51% D 25% A 24% Champ; H 45% D 29% A 25% L1; H 45% D 28% A 26% L2; H 43% D 26% A 31% SPL; H 43% D 28% A 29% S1; H 47% D 26% A 27% S2; H 41% D 25% A 34% S3: H 41% D 21% A 36% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted April 10, 2010 Share Posted April 10, 2010 As you can see from mid-table's stats, generally the lower the level the less home advantage counts. I made a living for years backing largely away teams in the Scottish Second and Third divisions because home advantage doesn't count for much but the bookmakers priced the games as if it did. Home advantage is the same as any factor in betting, the more successful you are at quantifying it, the better you'll do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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