P&b Gambling University

[endieinreekie]

Just wanted a wee bit of advice about opening an online account for betting on the fitba. I mostly bet small amounts for fun/interest, but would like to make a wee bit of money as well. What I am looking for is a website that is easy to use, easy to set up an account and semi-decent odds. Would be grateful for any recommendations.

[fanny paddery]

Just wanted a wee bit of advice about opening an online account for betting on the fitba. I mostly bet small amounts for fun/interest, but would like to make a wee bit of money as well. What I am looking for is a website that is easy to use, easy to set up an account and semi-decent odds. Would be grateful for any recommendations.

Betfair all the way, best odds and really easy layout to use. Also easy to set up an account and easy to deposit oor withdraw.

Edited April 16, 2010 by fanny paddery

[fanny paddery]

Just wanted a wee bit of advice about opening an online account for betting on the fitba. I mostly bet small amounts for fun/interest, but would like to make a wee bit of money as well. What I am looking for is a website that is easy to use, easy to set up an account and semi-decent odds. Would be grateful for any recommendations.

check ur pm

[blue4578]

I'd back short odds that said PM contained your referral code.

[mid-table]

I'd back short odds that said PM contained your referral code.

I thought exactly the same. :lol:

Mid you, I can't be too harsh as fanny paddery used my referral code when he set up on betfair.

[fanny paddery]

I'd back short odds that said PM contained your referral code.

even if you are looking to bet small stakes go with betfair. They operate a 100% book so the odds you get is a true reflection of the probability. The option to lay teams, ie back against them, so if the outcome is a draw or they lose you win is also very appealing. Betafir also do loads of in play matches if thats your thing and the site is really easy to navigate, you can find anything with their search bar.

The only thing I would warn you is they take 5% of any winnings as comission to pay for running the site, but considering their odds can be10-15% better than any other site this is a small price to pay. They also have a minimum bet of £2 but other bookies are following suit on this and there are ways to get around it.

then it had my refer and earn code, so there

[Green&White Zebra]

Betfair for me as well.

Normally I prefer betting on horses to football. I just think that racing is an easier medium to predict and certainly offers far better value. I guess the hardest aspect to football betting is keeping all emotions out of it, which even when no involving your own team, is actually quite hard. We tend to like or dislike teams based on how they play.

After a mediocre World Cup, I am tempted to get back into the footie, however, although I am sure it will be focussed on the EPL.

I am sure this has been discussed at length previously, but to really enjoy sports betting you have to be quite conservative. Set a budget, whether it's a grand or a tenner and stick to it, no matter what. That means you don't try to double up gains or, never ever try to chase losses. If you're betting a ton, for example, then treat it as recreational disposable income and be ready to write it off.

And I guess the other golden rule is don't listen to anyone's opinion but your own. Because when you get something wrong, then you only answer to yourself and you never know, you may learn !

[Milners]

Quite funny how many people recommend betfair.

Betfair imho has one of the worst prices for most scottish football games unless the other team is well fancied and you can get a bit of value that way but I dislike betfair especially the way they treat successful punters with their Premium Charge. I would rather people moved to Betdaq than Betfair although a fair bet less money on it apart from Asian handicap betting.

The best bookie i would recommend is bet365.

Edited August 19, 2010 by Milners

[blue4578]

Except 99.99% of people here won't ever have to contemplate the Premium Charge. You have to be well over £5000 up over the lifetime of your account for starters. I agree that Scottish Football League betting is poor on Betfair. This is largely why a couple of years ago I stopped betting on Scottish football - bookmakers won't take my bets and usually the money on Betfair is leaning the same way as I am (plus the amounts available are small) so you can't get bets matched there at prices equal to those being offered by bookmakers.

Bet365 will not lay you a bet if you remotely look like you know what you're doing. A couple of years ago, with a Bet365 account that was a net £8000 or so down, I placed a £5000 bet on a Serie A level ball Asian Handicap (effectively draw no bet for those not familiar with Asians). The limit was about £10,000 I think, the match was drawn so I didn't win or lose, stake was refunded. Got an email shortly afterwards basically saying that "Bet365 is aimed at recreational punters, so we've taken a trading decision to close your account". If you're aiming at recreational punters, why have the £10,000 limit in the first place??

The fact of the matter is that most bookmakers these days don't want to lay a bet. Five years ago most would let you win a fair sum before limiting you or shutting the account. All it takes is one small win at most bookmakers and that's it. Unless you look like a complete moron, they mostly don't want to know, and Bet365 are one of the worst for this. They can make plenty of money from their poker/bingo/casino/FOBT's (if they have a highstreet presence), so why take a risk and lay a bet? Even if you look like a complete moron, if you're a complete moron betting more than £200 a go, they'll probably still limit you.

[Lichtielegend]

Where I work, we tend to do our stake factoring by limiting the punters who basically find arbs.

Even if they win thousands, if they do so by big bets at poor value, we actually ramp the stake factor up and allow them to make bigger bets to get our money back.

My tip would be;

Bookies derive the over/under goal quote from the supremacy quote between the teams. So, if there is a clear favourite, the over price will be low and if the odds are even, they'll be high and you can find good value from this.

[blue4578]

Where I work, we tend to do our stake factoring by limiting the punters who basically find arbs.

Even if they win thousands, if they do so by big bets at poor value, we actually ramp the stake factor up and allow them to make bigger bets to get our money back.

Anyone with any sense takes the best price when betting, which could look like arbing. It goes back to bookmakers only wanting total morons for customers. No sensible, winning punter is going to back large sums regularly below best price. It's hard enough to win without doing that.

Between 2002-2005, I was doing doubles and trebles on football, largely English and Scottish lower leagues. I had no problem getting £500-£1000 stakes on, sometimes to win £5000+, at most bookmakers. These days most of the same bookmakers (of the ones that haven't disappeared) wouldn't take £50 on the same bets, even if I'm using another identity.

My tip would be;

Bookies derive the over/under goal quote from the supremacy quote between the teams. So, if there is a clear favourite, the over price will be low and if the odds are even, they'll be high and you can find good value from this.

You can't calculate expected total goals by just looking at the spread betting supremacy quote between two teams. Using that reasoning, two evenly matched teams will always have low expected totals goals in a match between them, which is obviously not true.

If you're familiar with the Poisson distribution, you can use it to convert spread betting supremacies/totals into fixed odds quite easily, but that's something different altogether.

It's not much of a tip anyway, as you're not explaining how to find this value? It just seems like you're suggesting people back Over 2.5/3.5 or whatever when there are two evenly matched teams.

[Adam_Wee]

I've got a question. On Betfair, it is easy to turn a profit if, for instance, you back Man Utd to win at home to Newcastle at 1.30 pre KO. Then, when they score, the price drops to around 1.10, you can lay them off and make profit. My question is, could you lay a team pre KO, and when the odds rise (if there has been no goals), could you then back the team you have bet to win to make profit?

[mid-table]

I've got a question. On Betfair, it is easy to turn a profit if, for instance, you back Man Utd to win at home to Newcastle at 1.30 pre KO. Then, when they score, the price drops to around 1.10, you can lay them off and make profit. My question is, could you lay a team pre KO, and when the odds rise (if there has been no goals), could you then back the team you have bet to win to make profit?

Yes, it's the same mathematical principle.

[Adam_Wee]

Yes, it's the same mathematical principle.

Cheers. Would it not be worth looking at if, for instance, Man Utd and Liverpool were playing each other? Neither have a great goalscoring record in the first 15 minutes and if it was an important tie, they would surely start off a bit cagey?

[mid-table]

Cheers. Would it not be worth looking at if, for instance, Man Utd and Liverpool were playing each other? Neither have a great goalscoring record in the first 15 minutes and if it was an important tie, they would surely start off a bit cagey?

Firstly, the odds won't move much in the first 15 minutes if there are no goals. Secondly, to use your own example against you, in 2 of the last 4 Man Utd v Liverpool games there have been 3 goals in the first 15 minutes (Torres (5) 21/3/10, Rooney (12) 21/3/10, Tevez (3) 13/9/08).

Edited August 21, 2010 by mid-table

[Adam_Wee]

Firstly, the odds won't move much in the first 15 minutes if there are no goals. Secondly, to use your own example against you, in 2 of the last 4 Man Utd v Liverpool games there have been 3 goals in the first 15 minutes (Torres (5) 21/3/10, Rooney (12) 21/3/10, Tevez (3) 13/9/08).

Well, I was only using that as an example, and wasn't thinking of previous meetings, more previous games. I've seen odds drift a few points if there hasn't been a goal in the first 15 minutes, not a lot granted, but if your stakes are decent, there *could* be money to be made?

[Adam_Wee]

Unlikely, if the game is 0-0 after 15 minutes it is very unlikely there will be enough movement to merit trading at that time. Between 30 and 45 minutes you will find a small amount of movement in the "win" options, if the team are evenly matched they will both drift by a small amount, if there is a clear favourite then it's unlikely the favourite will move much but the outsider may drift a bit. The "draw" option will generally come down from around 3.50 to around 2.50, however there is no benefit in that as you'd be as well backing 0-0 on the HT market and trading on that.

This is all based on the presumption it is a "normal" match.

Brilliant, thanks a lot.

[blue4578]

Well, I was only using that as an example, and wasn't thinking of previous meetings, more previous games. I've seen odds drift a few points if there hasn't been a goal in the first 15 minutes, not a lot granted, but if your stakes are decent, there *could* be money to be made?

What would you do if the team you'd layed scored then? For example Chelsea were 1.29 starting price today, drifting to 1.45 just before they scored. Not a massive drift, but when the goal went in they were 1.09. The problem with football matches is that the number of significant incidents (red cards, goals) is small, sometime zero even. That's why trading can be difficult. Sports like tennis and basketball, with the scores constantly moving gradually, gives you a lot more chances to escape with a small loss if need be, except at the very end of a match. There are an unlimited number of strategies you can use on Betfair that might work, but something like you're suggesting would probably need you to have an understanding of how the markets work, which can only really be obtained by analysing historical data carefully and producing a mathematical model largely based on this.

If you're laying both teams as you also mentioned, that's obviously just backing the draw. In both cases, you'd probably be much better off backing Under whatever number of goals you liked and trading out of that if nothing happens. Those markets can often move fairly quickly, particularly if there is little goal mouth action. Again though, you're at the mercy of goals, which can mean the only trade out option is at a significant loss. This is particularly true if a strong favourite goes behind early and you've backed Under 2.5 .

[mid-table]

Well, I was only using that as an example, and wasn't thinking of previous meetings, more previous games. I've seen odds drift a few points if there hasn't been a goal in the first 15 minutes, not a lot granted, but if your stakes are decent, there *could* be money to be made?

Unlikely, if the game is 0-0 after 15 minutes it is very unlikely there will be enough movement to merit trading at that time. Between 30 and 45 minutes you will find a small amount of movement in the "win" options, if the team are evenly matched they will both drift by a small amount, if there is a clear favourite then it's unlikely the favourite will move much but the outsider may drift a bit. The "draw" option will generally come down from around 3.50 to around 2.50, however there is no benefit in that as you'd be as well backing 0-0 on the HT market and trading on that.

This is all based on the presumption it is a "normal" match.

[Lazer]

I'm not a normal contributor to this forum but I do read it a lot, and I'm slightly confused!

Midtable, and Blue 4578:

When you use the term "trading" what exactly do you mean?

Is it just backing a result then laying the result as the odds change, i.e you backed Chelsea at 1.29 before kick of, then when the goals went In you laid them at the now shorter price?

I ask, because i've been looking in day trading on the financial markets, and I'm perhaps getting confused with the terminologies used on here and when trading indices or commodities?

Edited August 23, 2010 by Lazer