THE RUN IN

[Diamonds are Forever]

2 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

The fixtures look pretty similar tbh. The main difference is we have 3 more points just now. A bird in the hand and all that. 

I do think it's Alloa's and Airdrie's to lose and we're effectively sudden death in every game we play the now but as I've said, it's great being in a position that we have something to play for with 5 games to go given how shite we've been all season. 

 

I'm not sure, I'd rather have Peterhead at home and Clyde away in the last game (when they will probably be sticking out a youth team) in my remaining fixtures than a 3 point gap having played an extra game. I accept it's marginal though.

I think Queens are now a better side than Montrose though which obviously needs factored in. I wasn't making a case for them being likely to do it, was just saying that's it's not as big a lost cause as the Montrose fan made out. I don't think either ourselves or Alloa are nailed on and if any of Queens, Edinburgh or Montrose pick up a few wins they'll be very close.

[Skyline Drifter]

Week 32
Airdrie v Montrose
Alloa v QoS
Falkirk v Dunfermline
Kelty v Clyde
Peterhead v Edinburgh

An interesting week again in the run in. The meeting of the top two will take most of the focus but with results this weekend meaning Dunfermline can't clinch the title yet, for me (I am biased to be fair) the most interesting game is Alloa v QoS.

Airdrie v Montrose - The home side are on a great run with 4 consecutive wins at the right part of the season and the playoffs are in their own hands. 60 points will certainly do, 55 or 56 may well be enough so this is a big game for them. They have the top two to follow and then QoS so they'd like to get points on the board first I'm sure, despite the likelihood that Falkirk and Dunfermline will be playing for nothing by the time they meet them. For Montrose this is pretty much last chance saloon. In reality they'll need to win at least 5 of their last 6 to make the playoffs and defeat here will certainly put Airdrie out of reach.

Alloa v QoS - Big game in playoff terms. Alloa's defeat this week combined with QoS stretching their run to 4 wins and a draw in their last five means the gap is down to 6 points. Alloa's GD is better but not overwhelmingly so. A QoS win, especially if it's by 2 or 3 goals will make things very tight in there. On the other hand an Alloa win probably kills off QoS and Montrose and leaves Edinburgh with the only outside chance of changing the playoff set up. You'd imagine Alloa would be reasonably happy with a draw.

Falkirk v Dunfermline - Title not on the line but Falkirk haven't scored , never mind won, in four games. Victory for the Pars would put them 14 clear and let them clinch the league in midweek at Peterhead (or if Falkirk fail to beat Montrose).

Kelty v Clyde - It's been a decent week ultimately for Clyde who ground out a point against Falkirk and saw Peterhead fail to do the same despite an improved performance at QoS. Peterhead's game in hand now looks like it might see the title on the line for Dunfermline so taking anything from it is a reach. Clyde are 4 ahead and if they can hold on to that gap then even defeat in the upcoming head to head won't hurt them too badly. They have a very comfortable GD advantage too so Peterhead are going to need to haul 5 points back. For Kelty the game's no more than a bynote. They will almost certainly finish in 8th whatever happens.

Peterhead v Edinburgh - Games are running out for the Blue Toon. 4 points and substantial GD behind Clyde, nothing less than a win will do when they meet at Balmoor in 3 weeks. That won't even be enough though if they don't find another couple of points somewhere. Home to Edinburgh has to be one they target. For the visitors, despite collecting only 1 point from two home games, the playoffs remain in reach, 4 points behind Alloa and the bottom three all to play in their last 5 games.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Skyline Drifter

[parathletic]

6 hours ago, Aufc said:

As others have mentioned, airdrie played St Mirren off the park earlier this season, Dundee fans said we were one of the best teams at dens park this season and we have scudded most teams in the league this season (the 4-3 defeat to Dunfermline was bizarre and due to a sending off). If we get to the play offs then we have a good chance to get through them. We also have the ability to completely crumble. We seem to be on a good run at the moment so will be an interesting run in

 

I will get slagged for this but I reckon if both teams are on form then we are as good as Dunfermline. However, they have been most consistent and picked up points even when playing shite so deserve to win the league

I agree Airdrie are the best team we've faced all season

[parsboi]

7 hours ago, Aufc said:

As others have mentioned, airdrie played St Mirren off the park earlier this season, Dundee fans said we were one of the best teams at dens park this season and we have scudded most teams in the league this season (the 4-3 defeat to Dunfermline was bizarre and due to a sending off). If we get to the play offs then we have a good chance to get through them. We also have the ability to completely crumble. We seem to be on a good run at the moment so will be an interesting run in

 

I will get slagged for this but I reckon if both teams are on form then we are as good as Dunfermline. However, they have been most consistent and picked up points even when playing shite so deserve to win the league

Not gonna slag you at all.  I think to be fair on each teams “day” there isn’t that much between us all (except the bottom two despite us contriving to drop a bag of points against them).  The one thing that would absolutely have us head and shoulders above anyone would be a 20 goal striker.  Other than that it’s our miserly defence that has really been the edge.  
 

Airdrie are the team most likely to win the playoffs from what I can see as they have the explosive ability to win games. Falkirk seem distracted by their cup run and might run out of gas at the wrong time.   But as we found out to our cost last season, the team finishing 4th are never to be written off.

 

Obviously I want little drama in our own procession but plenty to come in the playoffs!

[Aufc]

13 minutes ago, parsboi said:

Not gonna slag you at all.  I think to be fair on each teams “day” there isn’t that much between us all (except the bottom two despite us contriving to drop a bag of points against them).  The one thing that would absolutely have us head and shoulders above anyone would be a 20 goal striker.  Other than that it’s our miserly defence that has really been the edge.  
 

Airdrie are the team most likely to win the playoffs from what I can see as they have the explosive ability to win games. Falkirk seem distracted by their cup run and might run out of gas at the wrong time.   But as we found out to our cost last season, the team finishing 4th are never to be written off.

 

Obviously I want little drama in our own procession but plenty to come in the playoffs!

Yeah Dunfermline have been solid and picked up points when playing shite whereas airdrie seem to get absolutely pumped when playing shite. If Dunfermline had Callum Gallagher then suspect they would have won it at even more of a canter
 

I think our big problem, aside from inconsistency has been our lack of depth. We missed Josh rae for a decent part of the season and Cammy B seemed to get sent off every week. We also had various little injuries.

 

still confident we will lose the play offs

Edited April 2, 2023 by Aufc

[Otis Blue]

19 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Week 32
Airdrie v Montrose
Alloa v QoS
Falkirk v Dunfermline
Kelty v Clyde
Peterhead v Edinburgh

Alloa v QoS - Big game in playoff terms. Alloa's defeat this week combined with QoS stretching their run to 4 wins and a draw in their last five means the gap is down to 6 points. Alloa's GD is better but not overwhelmingly so. A QoS win, especially if it's by 2 or 3 goals will make things very tight in there. On the other hand an Alloa win probably kills off QoS and Montrose and leaves Edinburgh with the only outside chance of changing the playoff set up. You'd imagine Alloa would be reasonably happy with a draw.

As SD points out, a defeat at Alloa virtually ends the season for Queens.  That would move Alloa to 54 points with 4 left to play.  Queens would stay back on 45 points with 4 left to play.  So the most Queens could then get would be 57 points if they won all 4 (unlikely).  So Alloa basically would just need one win from their last 4 (likely) to pretty well close out the final playoff spot.  All points to a "cup final" of sorts at The Recs for Queens on Saturday ... bring it on!

[Skyline Drifter]

2 hours ago, Otis Blue said:

As SD points out, a defeat at Alloa virtually ends the season for Queens.  That would move Alloa to 54 points with 4 left to play.  Queens would stay back on 45 points with 4 left to play.  So the most Queens could then get would be 57 points if they won all 4 (unlikely).  So Alloa basically would just need one win from their last 4 (likely) to pretty well close out the final playoff spot.  All points to a "cup final" of sorts at The Recs for Queens on Saturday ... bring it on!

Not sure that's quite true. Are you forgetting about Edinburgh sat in between? On 47 points with 5 to play, including all of the bottom three, I don't think Alloa can assume 57 points will be enough yet.

[Mr November]

14 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Not sure that's quite true. Are you forgetting about Edinburgh sat in between? On 47 points with 5 to play, including all of the bottom three, I don't think Alloa can assume 57 points will be enough yet.

Not just the bottom three, they also have Airdrie who they’ve beaten 14-3 over three games this season!

[LeodhasXD]

24 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Not sure that's quite true. Are you forgetting about Edinburgh sat in between? On 47 points with 5 to play, including all of the bottom three, I don't think Alloa can assume 57 points will be enough yet.

If it goes to form though FC Edinburgh have taken about a point a game for the last few months... So it would be enough.

Edited April 3, 2023 by LeodhasXD

[Skyline Drifter]

Just now, LeodhasXD said:

If it goes to form though FC Edinburgh have taken about a point a game for the last few months... So it would be enough.

It may well be enough (I've seen absolutely nothing from Edinburgh to suggest they should be a top half team, but then we've beaten them 5 times, 4 of them comfortably). The point is though at this stage Alloa cannot assume 57 points including beating us will do. It might need 60+

[Monkey Tennis]

3 hours ago, Otis Blue said:

As SD points out, a defeat at Alloa virtually ends the season for Queens.  

I think even a draw pretty much does that, to be honest.

[Otis Blue]

2 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Not sure that's quite true. Are you forgetting about Edinburgh sat in between? On 47 points with 5 to play, including all of the bottom three, I don't think Alloa can assume 57 points will be enough yet.

Unfortunately my post was focussed entirely upon Queens and Alloa, given our match this coming weekend.  So I was deliberately ignoring the other sides in this particular playoff pie (Airdrie, FC Embra FC and Montrose) and was assessing the probability of Queens being able or not to overhaul Alloa (still a very long shot).  I'm lazy though, I should have made that clear ... I must do better ... 3/10.

[Otis Blue]

2 hours ago, Mr November said:

Not just the bottom three, they also have Airdrie who they’ve beaten 14-3 over three games this season!

That's just a batshit crazy statistic there, given what Queens have done to Embra this season I just can't understand how they've bossed Airdrie like that.  The mad world of Scottish fitba, eh?

[DoonhamerDon]

I've tried to predict the fixtures for the last 5 games to see what is required for QOS to sneak that last play-off place. I've gone with a sort of minimum required approach, assuming teams generally lose to Falkirk, Dunfermline but win matches against lower teams and then it comes down to head to heads. 

Airdrie 58
QOS 57
Edinburgh 56
Alloa 55

Airdrie beat Montrose and Edinburgh, lose to Falkirk, Dunf and QOS   

Alloa beat Kelty, draw with Montrose, lose to Falkirk, Dunf and QOS  

Edinburgh beat bottom 3, lose to Airdrie and Falkirk  

QOS beat Alloa, Airdrie, Montrose and Kelty, lose to Dunfermline  

 

I think we definitely need 12 points from 15 and one of them really has to be Alloa. Would leave us finishing the season with 25 points from last 30 available - incredible form if it came off!

It's still really unlikely and its too reliant on Falkirk winning games again for my liking (they will likely drop points to Alloa, Airdrie or both and if they do then we are probably out of it) but not impossible. Would deliver an incredibly tight run in though.

Airdrie and Alloa in the driving seat though as said - I think both probably only need 6 pts from last 5 games to do it and possibly less if either of those wins are against QOS

As echoed by most QOS fans, just very pleasantly surprised to still be talking play-off possibilities with 5 games to go. Pre-Marv fully expected us to be in Kelty's position. 

 

 

[Skyline Drifter]

5 minutes ago, DoonhamerDon said:

I've tried to predict the fixtures for the last 5 games to see what is required for QOS to sneak that last play-off place. I've gone with a sort of minimum required approach, assuming teams generally lose to Falkirk, Dunfermline but win matches against lower teams and then it comes down to head to heads. 

Airdrie 58
QOS 57
Edinburgh 56
Alloa 55

Airdrie beat Montrose and Edinburgh, lose to Falkirk, Dunf and QOS   

Alloa beat Kelty, draw with Montrose, lose to Falkirk, Dunf and QOS  

Edinburgh beat bottom 3, lose to Airdrie and Falkirk  

QOS beat Alloa, Airdrie, Montrose and Kelty, lose to Dunfermline  

 

I think we definitely need 12 points from 15 and one of them really has to be Alloa. Would leave us finishing the season with 25 points from last 30 available - incredible form if it came off!

It's still really unlikely and its too reliant on Falkirk winning games again for my liking (they will likely drop points to Alloa, Airdrie or both and if they do then we are probably out of it) but not impossible. Would deliver an incredibly tight run in though.

Airdrie and Alloa in the driving seat though as said - I think both probably only need 6 pts from last 5 games to do it and possibly less if either of those wins are against QOS

As echoed by most QOS fans, just very pleasantly surprised to still be talking play-off possibilities with 5 games to go. Pre-Marv fully expected us to be in Kelty's position.

I think at this stage it's pointless predicting other results. In theory Dunfermline and Falkirk should win their games but it's likely both will be playing for nothing within the next fortnight and who know what motivation they have then against clubs who absolutely need results. I don't think the fixtures are generally that helpful for us. There's a greater likelihood that Airdrie and Alloa face Falkirk and Dunfermline when their regular season is over for instance.

It would certainly be advantageous for us if Dunfermline could clinch the title next Tuesday at Peterhead. They can do this either by beating Falkirk on Saturday and then matching their result on Tuesday, or by drawing at Falkirk and winning at Peterhead whilst Falkirk don't beat Montrose. Otherwise they'll be trying to clinch the title against us at East End Park. Hopefully if they win it at Peterhead they'll be partying for the rest of next week and not training!

I agree though we'll need at least 12 more points including a win over Alloa on Saturday. Anything less and at least 2 of the other 3 will outpoint us.

We've probably left our run of form too late. Ultimately if we fail it will be because we dropped at least 9 points to Kelty and because we dropped at least 7 to Alloa. I don't know which is worse. We should probably have got something from the home game v Kelty but we've been dreadful in those three games. On the other hand, whilst dropping points to Alloa is on the face of it not as bad, they came in games we largely dominated. Inability to beat Alloa despite playing well in those games sums us up. If we had picked up 7 points from Alloa in head to heads this season, as we should have, then we'd be 6 points better off (obviously) AND they'd be 6 points worse off. We'd be the team sitting 4th and looking over our shoulder at Edinburgh. We didn't though and full credit to Alloa for hanging in those games and taking their chances when they came. it's why they are where they are.

[Slipmat]

10 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Ultimately if we fail it will be because we dropped at least 9 points to Kelty and because we dropped at least 7 to Alloa. 

A draw and a heavy defeat against Clyde have certainly proved to be costly too.

[Skyline Drifter]

42 minutes ago, Slipmat said:

A draw and a heavy defeat against Clyde have certainly proved to be costly too.

True, but you're always going to drop daft points somewhere. Even the top two have dropped points to Clyde but we also beat them twice. The Alloa games are particularly galling though both because they are our direct rivals for the last playoff spot and because we actually played well in the games. I'd say our performance in the first 1-1 draw with Alloa is comfortably our best of the season. We still didn't win! In fact our worst showing against Alloa, in the SPFL Trust Trophy is the only one we did win! 

And not getting any points at all from the team in 8th is dreadful too. 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Skyline Drifter

[Kelheart]

19 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

True, but you're always going to drop daft points somewhere. Even the top two have dropped points to Clyde but we also beat them twice. The Alloa games are particularly galling though both because they are our direct rivals for the last playoff spot and because we actually played well in the games. I'd say our performance in the first 1-1 draw with Alloa is comfortably our best of the season. We still didn't win! In fact our worst showing against Alloa, in the SPFL Trust Trophy is the only one we did win! 

And not getting any points at all from the team in 8th is dreadful too. 

 

Didn't deserve any points against us tbf 

[Skyline Drifter]

50 minutes ago, Kelheart said:

Didn't deserve any points against us tbf 

I didnt say we did. 

Although to be honest we probably should have won the Palmerston game, or drawn it at worst. You only turned up for it the last 20 mjns once Cardle appeared off the bench. We've been absolutely rubbish against you all three games though.

[DAFC.]

On 02/04/2023 at 14:48, Aufc said:

If Dunfermline had Callum Gallagher

Doesn’t matter who we’ve got up front, majority of teams are coming to EEP and putting 11 men behind the ball and we can’t squeeze a fart, never mind a ball, in to decent positions for strikers to take advantage. Saying that, we created one amazing chance at the weekend there that Wighton 9/10 times would score. But if you were to give me Gallagher for the Championship next season instead of O’Hara, Todorov, and McCann, I’d definitely take him.