UEFA Nations League and Euro/World Cup qualifying changes

[Pie Of The Month]

More games being added to the Nations League. Top 2 in each League A  group (the league Scotland are in and England are definitely not in) will go into quarter finals for the Nations League finals and 3rd place in Leagues A and B will go into a promotion/relegation playoff with 2nd place in League B and C for promotion/relegation.

6 team qualifying groups for the Euros and World Cup have been scrapped and replaced with 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams.

 

https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/news/027d-1727b3b1e199-61019185e2c8-1000--new-formats-for-uefa-men-s-national-team-competitions-app/

 

 

Edited January 25 by Pie Of The Month

[latapythelegend]

Quite like that actually

[Donathan]

I think:

 

Teams in pots 2-4 who are involved in the March promotion/relegation playoffs (i.e., league B 2nd place in pot 2, league B 3rd place in pot 3, and league C 2nd place in pot 4) would need to be drawn into 4 team groups, teams in pot 1 who are involved in the March relegation playoffs (i.e., league A 3rd place), would need to be drawn into 5 team groups. 
 

The top 8 teams would be playing QFs in March with the possibility of a SF/F in June. The latter would necessitate going into a 4 team group, so there would need to be an “either/or” pair with the winning team from one of the QFs going into the 4 team group and the loser going into the 5.

[Donathan]

Example based on the recent UNL:

 

League A QFs:

Croatia v Portugal

Spain v Denmark

Italy v Belgium

Netherlands v Hungary

 

Relegated to league B:

Austria, Czech Republic, England, Wales

 

Promoted to league A:

Scotland, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia

 

League A/B playoffs:

France v Ukraine

Switzerland v Iceland 

Germany v Finland

Poland v Norway

 

Relegated to league C

Armenia, Russia, Romania, Sweden

 

Promoted to league B

Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan

 

League B/C promotion playoffs:

Slovenia v Bulgaria

Ireland v Kosovo

Albania v Azerbaijan 

Montenegro v Luxembourg

 

[craigkillie]

I think the changes are fine, but it's not clear how it's going to work for the World Cup qualifying. They've said that the 12 group winners will automatically qualify, while runners-up will either qualify directly or go into the play-offs, and it also implies that there is no longer a Nations League route for the WC.

However, given that Europe has 16 spots for the World Cup, that would leave 12 teams playing off for 4 places. Does that mean that the 4 best runners-up might get a bye to a final, and the other 8 runners-up will play in a semi?

[Ray Patterson]

18 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I think the changes are fine, but it's not clear how it's going to work for the World Cup qualifying. They've said that the 12 group winners will automatically qualify, while runners-up will either qualify directly or go into the play-offs, and it also implies that there is no longer a Nations League route for the WC.

However, given that Europe has 16 spots for the World Cup, that would leave 12 teams playing off for 4 places. Does that mean that the 4 best runners-up might get a bye to a final, and the other 8 runners-up will play in a semi?

It's a "We'll make it up as we go along" knowing UEFA

Reading Bert's forums a few think it will be 4 UNL + 12 RU for the World Cup Playoffs, but there's confusion over fitting 12 matches into the schedule for WC/Euro Qualifying with this new Quarter Final stage of the Nations League 

[Donathan]

6 hours ago, craigkillie said:

I think the changes are fine, but it's not clear how it's going to work for the World Cup qualifying. They've said that the 12 group winners will automatically qualify, while runners-up will either qualify directly or go into the play-offs, and it also implies that there is no longer a Nations League route for the WC.

However, given that Europe has 16 spots for the World Cup, that would leave 12 teams playing off for 4 places. Does that mean that the 4 best runners-up might get a bye to a final, and the other 8 runners-up will play in a semi?

It’ll probably be:

 

WC:

- 12 winners qualify automatically

- 12 runners up + 4 best remaining UNL teams form 4 playoff paths 

 

Euros:

- 12 winners qualify automatically

- X automatic host slots

- (9-X) best runners up qualify automatically. 

- 3 UNL playoff paths formed using the current system

[craigkillie]

The UEFA article says "The group-winners of the European Qualifiers will qualify directly for the UEFA EURO or the FIFA World Cup, whereas the second-placed teams will either qualify directly or participate in play-off matches (together with UEFA Nations League teams for qualification to the UEFA EURO)."

The bolded part suggests to me that there won't be Nations League teams involved in the World Cup play-offs.

Edited January 26 by craigkillie

[forameus]

I don't hate the changes, but I'm not convinced the Nations League really needed touching.  For once they'd brought in something that was actually good for international football (despite what some fans of League A teams, or specific League B teams might say) but every year they've fucked about with it.  It will add more meaning to every game, although I'm not convinced there's much of a need for that in a 4-team group playing just 6 games.  

Big question like others have said is what it really means in full for the main qualifiers.  My question would be how seeding works for the draws given there's now at most 5 teams in groups, so presumably the 6 pot system is dead.  With so many teams needing to be in a specific sized group, do we then have two seeding "paths".  f**k knows.

[Dunning1874]

We'll see in time how the seeding works in practice with some teams needing to be placed in four team groups, but my initial thought is it's likely to be good thing for us. More groups meaning more teams in each pot makes it easier for us to stay in Pot 2, there's a slightly better chance of getting a beatable Pot 1 side, and Pot 3 will in turn be weaker through the top two pots being larger.

For the 2024 draw the pots were as follows:

1 - Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland

2 - France, Austria, Czech Republic, England, Wales, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, Scotland, Finland

3 - Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Romania, Sweden, Armenia

Expanding the pots to 12 teams you'd have had France & Austria to Pot 1 Ukraine, Iceland, Norway and Slovenia to Pot 2, then the additions to Pot 3 would be Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg and Azerbaijan. There could still be some very tricky draws, and obviously there's the significant caveat that you're losing automatic Euros qualification for runners-up, but the chances of getting an easier draw would increase considerably with the best sides in Pot 3 moving up.

Edited January 26 by Dunning1874

[Pie Of The Month]

52 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

We'll see in time how the seeding works in practice with some teams needing to be placed in four team groups, but my initial thought is it's likely to be good thing for us. More groups meaning more teams in each pot makes it easier for us to stay in Pot 2, there's a slightly better chance of getting a beatable Pot 1 side, and Pot 3 will in turn be weaker through the top two pots being larger.

For the 2024 draw the pots were as follows:

1 - Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland

2 - France, Austria, Czech Republic, England, Wales, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, Scotland, Finland

3 - Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Romania, Sweden, Armenia

Expanding the pots to 12 teams you'd have had France & Austria to Pot 1 Ukraine, Iceland, Norway and Slovenia to Pot 2, then the additions to Pot 3 would be Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg and Azerbaijan. There could still be some very tricky draws, and obviously there's the significant caveat that you're losing automatic Euros qualification for runners-up, but the chances of getting an easier draw would increase considerably with the best sides in Pot 3 moving up.

 

Just thought I'd continue this down the pots out of interest.

Euro qualifier pots (done on UNL ranking)

Pot 1- Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland, France, Austria
Pot 2 -Czech Republic, England, Wales, Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Scotland, Finland, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia
Pot 3 -Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Romania, Sweden, Armenia, Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan
Pot 4 -Kosovo, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, North Macedonia, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Belarus, Lithuania, Gibraltar, Estonia, Latvia
Pot 5 - Moldova, Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein

Germany ranked 10th would be pot 1 if not hosting, Russia are ranked 32nd so would be pot 3 if reinstated

World Cup qualifier pots (done on FIFA rankings although there was talk of switching to UNL ranking)

Pot 1 - France, Belgium, England, Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Poland
Pot 2 - Sweden, Ukraine, Wales, Serbia, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Scotland, Norway, Turkey, Ireland, Greece
Pot 3 - Romania, Slovakia, Finland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Slovenia, Iceland, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Israel
Pot 4 - Georgia, Luxembourg, Armenia, Belarus, Kosovo, Estonia, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Lithuania
Pot 5 - Andorra, Malta, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, San Marino

Russia ranked 18th so would be pot 2 if reinstated.

 

Other than it taking away the 2nd automatic qualifying spot for the Euros I think this could work out well for countries like Scotland.

 

 

[Donathan]

I don’t think it’s great for our chances of making the Euros, tbh. At the moment our best bet is to get into pot 2 and finish 2nd in our group. That’s what we are hoping will happen for euro 2024 but drawing the best team in pot 3 makes life difficult, but we’ve still got the playoffs as a fallback option. Under the new system we are likely relying on a playoff nearly every time unless we are lucky enough to draw an Austria or a Hungary as our pot 1 side and manage to go ahead and top the group.

 

Ultimately the aim is the same thing, finish in the top (24 - X) teams in qualifying, with X being the number of hosts qualifying automatically. But my view is that the new system adds to the “randomness” of the qualifying which in turn makes it more likely that genuine top 24 sides (which we are, IMO) will miss out.

 

Assuming only one automatic qualifier it will likely be:

 

- 1 host

- 12 qualifying group winners

- 6 best runners up 

- 20 teams in 5 playoff paths (Including 6 remaining runners up + UNL league group winners + next best UNL teams if there are spots to fill)

 

For each extra automatic host, reduce the number of runner up who qualify by 2 and add an additional playoff path. So if you had 4 hosts, only them plus the 12 winners qualify automatically but you’d have 8 playoff paths with 32 teams. 
 

[Paco]

I really don’t like the huge increase of teams competing across groups. Now the case in the UNL, WC/Euros qualifiers and the Euros tournament itself. Some talk the 2026 World Cup might even end up there too to complete the clean sweep. 

If six runners-up qualify automatically and six don’t, there’ll be at least one or two every time who get a lucky draw from Pots 3 & 4 which takes them to a finals. I think luck of the draw is fine within your own group, there’s really no other way of doing it, but a Pot 2 team could based on current standings face Sweden and Slovakia, or Luxembourg and Gibraltar. Getting to a finals because you pumped Gibraltar twice seems a weird way of doing it. It’s a double win from the draw. 

[NickMcG]

On 26/01/2023 at 11:27, forameus said:

I don't hate the changes, but I'm not convinced the Nations League really needed touching.  For once they'd brought in something that was actually good for international football (despite what some fans of League A teams, or specific League B teams might say)

I agree but I can also see why big teams like England don't take it particularly seriously as they're almost assured of qualification anyway. I really see it as a means to an end (play off spot and pot 2 this time) rather than worth winning itself.