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euro 2024 seed stage group


Craigieboy86

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6 minutes ago, andyg83 said:

For me we want to avoid
Spain, Belgium
Ukraine, Ireland, Norway, Sweden
Turkey, Greece
Slovakia

If we avoid all of them we have a hell of a chance I reckon.
 

Largely agree, except that I’m not too bothered about Spain and Belgium. I’d rather avoid Ireland because they tend to raise their game against us, but really we shouldn’t be finishing below them. 

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This is the first time in ages that we've got ourselves into a position where you could look at a possible mediocre draw and think, "aye, we really ought to finish second here".

No doubt we'll end up with the nightmare scenario above, but even then Turkey and Slovakia are not form teams and have had some abominable results of late. No doubt they'd get their shit together for our benefit, but there's a reason they'd so lowly ranked. Also, Italy have been all over the place in the past five or six years, so they might be back to dropping points again by March.

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17 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Simulator for me:

 

Hungary

Scotland

Norway

Georgia

Cyprus 

We'd also have one of the pot six teams if we're in Hungary's group.

@the snudge's dream group looks frankly mental, and would be our easiest (respect to the other nations, etc) draw since Euro 2004.

Setting us aside, there could be a group looking like this:

Hungary
Israel
Iceland
Faeroe Islands
Gibraltar
San Marino

Hungary don't qualify from that, there's no hope for them.

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1 hour ago, BFTD said:

We'd also have one of the pot six teams if we're in Hungary's group.

@the snudge's dream group looks frankly mental, and would be our easiest (respect to the other nations, etc) draw since Euro 2004.

Setting us aside, there could be a group looking like this:

Hungary
Israel
Iceland
Faeroe Islands
Gibraltar
San Marino

Hungary don't qualify from that, there's no hope for them.

Not necessarily. The four UNL finalists are automatically in 5-team groups, but three more pot 1 teams also must be. Only three of the ten groups have 6 teams. 

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56 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Not necessarily. The four UNL finalists are automatically in 5-team groups, but three more pot 1 teams also must be. Only three of the ten groups have 6 teams. 

Good point.

Noticed this website that simulates draws, and gives best/worst case scenarios. Here's our nightmare group based on ELO ratings and FIFA World Rankings. Interesting that Slovakia's the only constant:

image.png.8a0e96c15b56bc8f59d815c71d20fff9.png  image.png.029f3db6d668c6a675dc838afb69c52f.png

...and the best case scenario (ELO/FIFA):

image.png.24d7858268dbe3b23b5652949c9da53e.png  image.png.3e2b292ab5c7b5fcea1ca6285a81c6a1.png

A lot more straightforward. Makes sense that Hungary wouldn't be the best ELO option, considering some of the results they've had lately.

Edit: get your bets in for England to be drawn with Armenia, the Faeroes, Gibraltar, and San Marino  :rolleyes:

Edited by BFTD
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On that simulator I linked to above, the Market Value option is interesting. Apparently our squad's worth more than the Swiss and Hungary, and England's squad is by far and away the most valuable in the world. Presumably that says more about domestic values than actual cross-European worth.

Supposedly a million Euros will buy you the San Marinese national squad. Not sure what you'd do with them, though.

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On 14/09/2022 at 21:20, Craigieboy86 said:

POT 1                      

Netherlands

Denmark

Spain

Hungary

Portugal

Belgium

Croatia

Italy

Austria

Czech Republic

 

POT 2

Poland

Switzerland

France

England

Wales

Norway

Bosnia and Herzegovenia

Ukraine

Israel

Serbia

 

POT 3

Montenegro

SCOTLAND

Iceland

Republic of Ireland

Finland

Sweden

Albania

Romania

Armenia

Slovenia

 

POT 4

Russia (if not excluded)

Turkey

Greece

Georgia

Kazakhstan

North Macedonia

Luxembourg

Kosovo

Slovakia

Azerbaijan

 

POT 5

Faroe Islands

Northern Ireland

Bulgaria

Belarus

Cyprus

Gibraltar

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Malta

 

POT 6

Moldova

Andorra

San Marino

Liechtenstein

 

Austria

Isreal

Luxembourg 

Gibraltar 

San Marino

Scotland is what I want

Spain

France

Russia

Northern Ireland 

Moldova

Is probably what we're gonna get

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8 hours ago, andyg83 said:

I am getting tired explaining to folk how the seeds and the nations league works.

ffs is not that complicated:-)

It’s funny online, the penny is starting to drop, down South, that maybe poor performance in the Nations League made a difference after all.

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Am just hoping for a five-team group this time around.
Ordinarily I like us in as large a group as possible to minimise friendlies, but with our pattern of underperforming in June, a five-team group might mean we avoid a game or two then that really matters.

I agree, though the downside is that if we're in a 5 team group with an Nations League finalist, we're guaranteed to have 2 games in June since they won't have any.
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