euro 2024 seed stage group

[Donathan]

Pot 1:

Netherlands: On the swing up after a few years of being very poor. Would rather avoid.

 

Croatia: Their golden generation still seems to know how to get results. Avoid.

 

Italy: Honking since winning the Euros but got a lot of key players coming off the treatment table in the next few months. Avoid.

 

Spain: Avoid. Enough said.

 

Denmark: I know we beat them last year but they’re still an improving side and would probably have more key players back from injury next time. I’d still rather avoid them. 
 

Belgium: I know they’re about to regress but would still rather avoid.

Portugal: They tend to make a bit of a pig’s ear of qualifying plus we’ve not played them competitively in a long time so I’d take them. 
 

Hungary/Switzerland/Poland: Yes please.

 

 

Pot 3:

 

Ukraine: Avoid at all costs. Not only is playing them again incredibly boring, but they’ll have Zinchenko back.

 

Iceland: Would take them. Long past their best of 2016.

 

Norway: Avoid at all costs. Our defence has pocketed some excellent forwards but Haaland might be a step too far.

 

Slovenia: Improving team. Would rather avoid.

 

Republic of Ireland: Honking but have a knack for raising their game in local derbies against us. I’d rather avoid them, but still massively preferable to Ukraine or Norway.

Sweden: Not too clued up on their squad at the moment but they did honking in league B this time. Have they regressed or are they still an avoid?

Montenegro/Albania/Armenia/Romania: Would happily take any of those

 

Pot 4:

 

Georgia/Faroes/Kazakhstan/North Macedonia: These places invoke nightmares. Hard avoid.

 

Greece/Turkey: Both improving. Avoid.

 

Luxembourg/Azerbaijan/Kosovo/Bulgaria: Yes please

 

Pot 5: 

 
I’d rather avoid Slovakia because I can’t shake the impression that they’re a decent team who just had a mare of a UNL campaign and have crashed down the pots. I’d rather avoid Lithuania for the same reason as Georgia/Faroes/Kazakhstan/North Macedonia. Any of the others would be fine.

 

Pot 6:

My main hope is that we just get a pot 6 team full stop (only 30% chance). Partly because it’s more games to pad out caps and goal stats for the players, a chance of dishing out some humpings etc, but also it means you cannot play Netherlands/Croatia/Italy/Spain as they’re guaranteed to be in five team groups. Happy days. 

Out of the pot 6 teams I’d rather get Andorra for variety, but would be happy enough to play Liechtenstein or San Marino again. 

[Donathan]

Norway and Ukraine are probably the two most important teams to avoid in the entire draw. In a group where two teams qualify, it’s the pot 3 and 4 opponents that are the most important. I’d honestly accept Spain if it meant we get Armenia rather than Poland and Norway. 

[Estragon]

Are Spain back on the roids again?

[craigkillie]

In the (fairly unlikely) event that all the pot 1 and 2 teams qualify directly then the playoff games will be, I believe
 
Georgia v Kazakhstan
Greece v Turkey
 
Ukraine v Slovenia
Iceland v Norway
 
Estonia v Albania
Latvia v Republic of Ireland 

It was a random draw for all the League A and B play-off vacancies last time, assume it would be the same again.

[Donathan]

12 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

It was a random draw for all the League A and B play-off vacancies last time, assume it would be the same again.

Yes with the caveat that the two league D winners would have to go into league A playoffs. There’s a rule that if four or more teams from one league are playoff eligible, then a path containing four of them must be formed. 

[jaggyness]

Want... Hungary, Scotland, Irelandor Iceland, Faroes, Gibraltar, San Marino
Nightmareish... Italy, Scotland, Norway, Turkey, Slovakia, 

Turkey just lost to the faroes, I know they won their group but I don't think they're a team to fear.

[2426255]

Happy to see no triple headers. I think it's just a bit excessive. a camp needs to allow the team to train and work on ideas. Triple Headers don't leave much room for that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying

[Hendricks]

4 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

Happy to see no triple headers. I think it's just a bit excessive. a camp needs to allow the team to train and work on ideas. Triple Headers don't leave much room for that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying

If you draw a 5 team group (and there will be 7 of them and only 3 of 6 countries) there are only 8 match days required as well.

[Donathan]

No triple headers for now.

 

 

The way the world has been in recent years, it’s impossible to say whether there will be a sudden need for one. 

[BFTD]

15 hours ago, qos_75 said:

What pot are Bulgaria in?

Fourth. Bulgaria have been proper diddies for a few years now; wouldn't mind drawing them just to see how bad they are. I don't know if their results have ever been this poor before.

IIRC, they once held a record for most World Cup games without a win (17), but they were still qualifying, I suppose. Plus, they got to the semis after finally breaking their duck.

[2426255]

No home nations, and teams we haven't played in a while please. That's always my preference.

• Something like this: Portugal, SCOTLAND, Sweden, Bulgaria, Latvia. (Andorra)
• And less like this: Italy, SCOTLAND, Republic of Ireland, Faroe Islands, Northern Ireland. (Liechtenstein)

Alternatively the easiest 3rd and 4th seeds is fine too.

Edited September 28, 2022 by 2426255

[ropy]

Do you look for a no nonsense first seed.  One that will romp through all their games and not fail to beat the 3rd seeds away from home.

[Iain]

2 hours ago, 2426255 said:

No home nations, and teams we haven't played in a while please. That's always my preference.

• Something like this: Portugal, SCOTLAND, Sweden, Bulgaria, Latvia. (Andorra)
• And less like this: Italy, SCOTLAND, Republic of Ireland, Faroe Islands, Northern Ireland. (Liechtenstein)

Alternatively the easiest 3rd and 4th seeds is fine too.

Italy will be in a five team group.

[Donathan]

1 minute ago, ropy said:

Do you look for a no nonsense first seed.  One that will romp through all their games and not fail to beat the 3rd seeds away from home.

I’d rather have either one of the no nonsense ones like you mention for that reason or one of the worst ones so that we could try and win the group, but preferably not in between. 
 

The nightmare scenario is the other teams in the race to second get something off the top seed and we don’t. I have nightmares thinking of 2016 where we had Germany (the 2nd highest ranked team overall at the time and world champions) and the thinking was they’d scoosh the group leaving us to fight with Republic of Ireland and Poland for the 2nd spot or worst case scenario, 3rd still got you playoffs because this was before the Nations League. Germany proceeded to lose away to Poland and only take a single point off Ireland but they beat us home and away, meaning we failed to finish in the top 3 despite matching Poland and ROI in the head to head matches.

 

Contrast that to the recent World Cup qualifiers where we became that annoying team that pinches something off the top seed.

 

IMO you really want a winnable group in WC qualifiers because finishing second only gives you a one-in-four chance through the playoffs, so if this was a World Cup qualifying campaign I’d be wanting a Hungary or a Switzerland or a Poland. 
 

With it being the Euros though and two qualification spots on offer, there’s more merit to the idea that it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing to draw one of the better pot 1 sides. 
 

One thing we absolutely cannot do is treat the group how Austria treated the World Cup qualifying. They looked pretty half arsed in the knowledge they were effectively guaranteed a playoff. We can’t allow that to happen to us. Playoff should be seen as a backup only. 

[BFTD]

32 minutes ago, Donathan said:

One thing we absolutely cannot do is treat the group how Austria treated the World Cup qualifying. They looked pretty half arsed in the knowledge they were effectively guaranteed a playoff. We can’t allow that to happen to us. Playoff should be seen as a backup only. 

I dunno, they looked pretty on it at Hampden. We did well to escape with a draw.

I think it's maybe just more that they're generally inconsistent and not good enough to get away with it.

[Donathan]

50 minutes ago, BFTD said:

I dunno, they looked pretty on it at Hampden. We did well to escape with a draw.

I think it's maybe just more that they're generally inconsistent and not good enough to get away with it.

I think once they realised Denmark were going to stroll it, they chucked it. 

[craigkillie]

They looked half arsed because they were a shite team with a bad manager.

[HibeeJibee]

9 hours ago, Hendricks said:

If you draw a 5 team group (and there will be 7 of them and only 3 of 6 countries) there are only 8 match days required as well.

[VincentGuerin]

I think this will be a bit of a strange qualifying campaign, due to the rollover effect of the World Cup and the schedule top-end players have had.

So, I don't think there's the normal reason to fear the games against the Pot 1 side.

Looking at the schedule, the opening games will come at the tail end of the league/Champions League season and the next spell of games in the June after the season finishes. Top end players and teams are going to be on their fucking arses by that point, and it would be a great time to play them.

I don't think a team like Spain would be a bad draw. They're a side that often plays to the level of their opponent, and I'd fancy a March or June game against them at Hampden.

[Pie Of The Month]

26 minutes ago, VincentGuerin said:

I think this will be a bit of a strange qualifying campaign, due to the rollover effect of the World Cup and the schedule top-end players have had.

So, I don't think there's the normal reason to fear the games against the Pot 1 side.

Looking at the schedule, the opening games will come at the tail end of the league/Champions League season and the next spell of games in the June after the season finishes. Top end players and teams are going to be on their fucking arses by that point, and it would be a great time to play them.

I don't think a team like Spain would be a bad draw. They're a side that often plays to the level of their opponent, and I'd fancy a March or June game against them at Hampden.

If you are wanting Spain then it would need to be a March game as Spain, Croatia, Italy and Netherlands will all be in 5 team groups so they get June off to play the Nations League finals. I'd prefer to avoid all 4 for that reason, they'll be having a jolly in the summer whilst us and the pot 3 side we draw are on our arses after a long season and we may end up with another Ireland away situation.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Pie Of The Month