euro 2024 seed stage group

[DAFC.]

58 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Would now be a good time to get Croatia or Belgium? Seems to me that the golden generations of both countries are the wrong side of 30. 

No. 

Can't believe Turkey are in Pot 4 btw. I suppose that's what a poor run in the UNL will do to you. 

[Elixir]

Apologies if this has already been asked/answered elsewhere, but is there anything on offer for any of the countries that finish third in the main qualifying groups, i.e. a potential play-off? Similar to the qualifying for Euro 2020.

[craigkillie]

No, finishing 3rd doesn't get you anything - the format is exactly the same as Euro 2020 where the top 2 in each group qualify automatically and the other places are via the Nations League play-offs. The only difference is that since Germany qualify automatically as hosts, there's no League D play-offs.

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

No, finishing 3rd doesn't get you anything - the format is exactly the same as Euro 2020 where the top 2 in each group qualify automatically and the other places are via the Nations League play-offs. The only difference is that since Germany qualify automatically as hosts, there's no League D play-offs.

Worth noting though that league D group winners are still very likely to be in the playoffs. In the highly likely event that some of the group winners from A-C make it through the main qualifying, the two group winners from league D get first priority for playoff spots. 

[Donathan]

Draw or win on Tuesday and we win the group and are in pot 2 regardless of other results.

 

If we lose, we'll be on 6 points assuming Ireland avoid defeat (GD 0 at best), or 9 if Armenia beat Ireland (GD +7 at best)

 

Group B

Albania must beat Iceland to finish 2nd. Iceland 2nd if they avoid defeat. Iceland would need to win to get to 6 points, but would beat us on GD.

 

Group C

MON beat FIN, ROM beat BOS: Montenegro 2nd with 7 points

MON beat FIN, BOS beat ROM: Montenegro 2nd with 4 points

MON beat FIN, BOS/ROM draw: Montenegro 2nd with 7 points

FIN beat MON, ROM beat BOS: Finland 2nd with 7 points

FIN beat MON, BOS beat ROM: Finland 2nd with 7 points

FIN beat MON, BOS/ROM draw: Finland 2nd with 7 points

MON/FIN draw, ROM beat BOS: Montenegro 2nd with 7 points

MON/FIN draw, BOS beat ROM: Montenegro 2nd with 4 points

Both draws: Montenegro 2nd with 4 points

 

Group D

NOR beat SRB, SVN beat SWE: Serbia 2nd with 4 points

NOR beat SRB, SWE beat SVN: Serbia 2nd with 6 points (Better GD than us)

NOR beat SRB, SWE/SVN draw: Serbia 2nd with 4 points

SRB beat NOR, SVN beat SWE: Norway 2nd with 4 points

SRB beat NOR, SWE beat SVN: Norway 2nd with 9 points (Worse GD than us)

SRB beat NOR, SWE/SVN draw: Norway 2nd with 4 points

NOR/SRB draw, SVN beat SWE: Serbia 2nd with 5 points

NOR/SRB draw, SWE beat SVN: Serbia 2nd with 7 points

NOR/SRB draw, SWE/SVN draw: Serbia 2nd with 5 points

 

 

 

 

tl;dr, to get pot 2 we need either:

 

1) We avoid defeat against Ukraine

 

OR 

 

2) Armenia beat Ireland

 

OR 

 

3) Albania avoid defeat against Iceland AND Slovenia avoid defeat against Sweden AND Montenegro avoid defeat against Finland AND Romania fail to better Finland's result

[Donathan]

We need to be rooting for Montenegro and Bosnia tonight

 

 

Either need Montenegro win and Bosnia win or Montenegro draw and Bosnia win/draw 

[Donathan]

17 hours ago, Donathan said:

Worth noting though that league D group winners are still very likely to be in the playoffs. In the highly likely event that some of the group winners from A-C make it through the main qualifying, the two group winners from league D get first priority for playoff spots. 

Just wanted to correct myself here as I was reading more about the format and what I said before wasn’t quite accurate.

 

They fill the three paths up from league C to league A, starting with the group winners that failed to automatically qualify.

 

If a group winner did qualify automatically, then they are replaced by the next best team in that league who failed to qualify. 
 

Only if < 4 teams in the entire league failed to qualify, only then do the league D group winners come in.

 

It stinks of a fudge to protect the big nations because you’d expect the four league C winners to fail to qualify, and at least four teams from league B as well (not necessarily the winners), so they’ll form two playoff paths. But it’s pretty likely that 14/15 of the teams from league A will qualify outright, so very likely that we’ll end up with a playoff path made up of something like France, Latvia, Estonia and Montenegro. 

[Donathan]

Slovakia have crashed down into pot 5 with the European giants like Belarus, Malta and Gibraltar.

 

What’s happened to them? We had them in WCQ 2018 and in the last nations league and they were pretty much equally matched to us at the time. 

[2426255]

@Donathanyou should get paid for the amount of work you put in

[Quentin Taranbino]

So if we lose to Ukraine, there will be no pot 2 for us, unless Armenia beat Ireland. 

Simple 

[central staggie]

On 22/09/2022 at 15:43, ahemps said:

I know they must be in Pot 4 for a reason but wouldn't fancy Turkey either, big margin between Turkey and say the Faroes as a pot 4 team.

Aye the Faroes are decent, I'll give you that.

[Donathan]

In terms of the first place table:

 

Israel 8 (+2 GD, 8 GS)

Bosnia 8 (+2 GD, 6 GS)

Scotland 6 (+1 GD, 5 GS, 1 game in hand)

Norway 4 (0 GD, 2 GS, 1 game in hand)

We must beat Ukraine, or draw + Armenia beat Ireland, in order to get a home playoff.

 

If we draw and Ireland also avoid defeat, we will have 7 points, and will be away to most like Bosnia.

 

We are probably hoping for Slovenia to stay above Sweden. If Sweden beat them and avoid relegation, then the winner of the Serbia/Norway group will gain a bunch of points in the table (5 for Norway, 2 for Serbia) which could put them on higher totals. 12 if Norway win, 10 if it’s a draw, 9 if Serbia win. That would mean we’d be going to Oslo or Belgrade rather than Israel/Bosnia. 

 

[craigkillie]

It's pointless to speculate on who we'll be playing when some of those nations (including us) would be expected to qualify automatically. Even when we were in League C our expected play-off against Finland ended up being Israel instead. For the last Euros (albeit with 12 teams in League A rather than 16), only one of the four League B winners didn't qualify automatically.

[forameus]

Yeah, it was barely even worth projecting whether we'd get pot 2 from this group before this run of games, let alone who we might draw in a playoff we hopefully never need.  If we secure pot 2, it'd be a massive disappointment if we gave a single shit about the playoff in 2024.

[Donathan]

Final ranking

 

1. Israel

2. Bosnia-Herzegovina

3. Serbia

4. Scotland

5. Finland 

6. Ukraine

7. Iceland

8. Norway

9. Slovenia

10. Republic of Ireland

11. Albania

12. Montenegro

13. Romania

14. Sweden

15. Armenia

16. Russian Football Union (Disqualified)

 

If all 4 fail to qualify directly then the SF will be Israel v Scotland and Bosnia-Herz v Serbia, but in any case the top remaining seed that doesn’t qualify will play the 4th seed that doesn’t qualify and 2nd will host 3rd. The final venue will be drawn randomly. 

[Donathan]

Are Bosnia and Serbia even allowed to play each other? There’s a bunch of clashes that UEFA usually keep apart for fear of starting geopolitical conflict 

[charger29]

Are Bosnia and Serbia even allowed to play each other? There’s a bunch of clashes that UEFA usually keep apart for fear of starting geopolitical conflict 

Just checked that a few minutes ago and it seems like they are.

[Theaccman]

10 minutes ago, charger29 said:

 

Just checked that a few minutes ago and it seems like they are.

 

Not that I dont trust you but there's no way Bosnia and Serbia are allowed to play each other.

Pretty sure this would have been one of the founding member banned fixtures.

 

[Donathan]

2 minutes ago, Theaccman said:

Not that I dont trust you but there's no way Bosnia and Serbia are allowed to play each other.

Pretty sure this would have been one of the founding member banned fixtures.

 

I just found this that actually doesn’t have them as a prohibited clash. Must have been some diplomatic thawing in recent years. Neither of them are allowed to play Kosovo though. 

 

https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0279-1627b29793e1-ffbe5a3c77a1-1000/08.01.00_euro_2024_qualifying_draw_procedure_en_20220920115210.pdf

[charger29]

Not that I dont trust you but there's no way Bosnia and Serbia are allowed to play each other.
Pretty sure this would have been one of the founding member banned fixtures.
 

The womens teams played against each other in a friendly earlier this year.