Jump to content

Birth rates / Fertility


Recommended Posts

Falling birth rates and the implications for society have been in the news the last few weeks. 

Writing in the Sunday Times academic Paul Morland argued that reduced birth rates will cause huge issues for society in the future, including soaring care and health costs and labour shortages. Most controversially he suggested “negative tax credits” for those who don’t have children, ie a tax on the childless.

here is Morlands article - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/should-we-tax-the-childless-j7h9c297r

There was a response to this from Aaron Bastani, who wrote an article summarised in this thread

Essentially arguing rather than blasting people without kids with taxes governments should invest and try to open up the housing market to improve the birth rate. To be fair to Morland, he does suggests similar in his piece.

What do P&Bers think about birth rates?

Should P&Bers who selfishly refuse to squeeze out a few kids have their assets stripped?

have any P&Bers had enough children to qualify for a Ceacescu-style patriotic medal of procreation?

 

Edited by ICTChris
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Falling birth rates and the implications for society have been in the news the last few weeks. 
Writing in the Sunday Times academic Paul Morland argued that reduced birth rates will cause huge issues for society in the future, including soaring care and health costs and labour shortages. Most controversially he suggested “negative tax credits” for those who don’t have children, ie a tax on the childless.
here is Morlands article - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/should-we-tax-the-childless-j7h9c297r
There was a response to this from Aaron Bastani, who wrote an article summarised in this thread
Essentially arguing rather than blasting people without kids with taxes governments should invest and try to open up the housing market to improve the birth rate. To be fair to Morland, he does suggests similar in his piece.
What do P&Bers think about birth rates?
Should P&Bers who selfishly refuse to squeeze out a few kids have their assets stripped?
have any P&Bers had enough children to qualify for a Ceacescu-style patriotic medal of procreation?
 

I don’t have kids, because right now we can’t afford to have one. Maybe when things calm down and we’re mortgaged it’ll be a conversation worth having, but until then I’ll just keep getting off at Haymarket.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some suggestions. 

Across the world the birth rate still exceeds the replacement rate. People are just having babies in the wrong countries. We could bring in more young people fron those countries. 

A lot of people are put off having children by how annoying they are. Make children less annoying and people will have more. 

Finally, baby factories:

15747679._SX540_.jpg.b5795c9256726101d7091681aa04126b.jpg

 

All better ideas than that clickbait brainfart. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mizfit said:

I don’t have kids, because right now we can’t afford to have one.

This is the story for millions.

It's going to be a massive self-inflicted problem because of how conflicted Mail and Express readers are, and the cowardice of politicians who'll play to their prejudices to get elected, but won't spell out the realities.

  • We need more children to do the jobs that I don't want to
    • I'm not paying for the paupers and their uncontrollable breeding!
  • Affordable housing will be needed to provide shelter for any increase in population
    • Not in my back yard! We don't want these types of people living near us. It would affect the value of our second home!
  • Immigration is the obvious, simple answer to negative population growth. Bring in people who actually want to live here and contribute for some reason
    • Dirty criminal foreigners flooding my village? I'll fight against it to my dying breath!

The robot workers are a ways off yet. Until then, we're screwed, as these attitudes aren't going away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Left Back said:

What about the infertile, or gay men?  Discriminatory surely.

Simple solution, just prove how gay you are and you are exempted from the negative baby tax. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mathematics said:

What about us that know that any offspring will trigger the riding of the four horsemen?

Surely you would spawn at least one of the horsemen.. Or at least clancy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scotland's rates are remarkably low. Lowest total fertility rate of any of the 4 nations of the United Kingdom and Edinburgh City council area has a TFR of less than 1 child per woman.

Britain's housing crisis is a massive problem.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Can you make donation to someone that has 6 kids to fulfil your quota?  Like carbon offsetting.

Jacob Rees Mogg has plenty cash, I wouldn't worry about it

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm all for helping society and saving nubile females from any form of childless tax they may try to levy against them.

Would a suggestion to the wife of having free reign to have my vasectomy reversed and spread my wild seed for the greater good go down well, do you think? It's a burden I'm willing to bear (as long as I am excused any liability whatsoever for any resultant offspring).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Declining birth rates have been a phenomena for over a century. 

statista.com/statistics/1037268/crude-birth-rate-uk-1800-2020/

It is seen in every society that has urbanised. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-UN?tab=chart&time=1950..latest

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

Pronatal policies have rarely if ever worked, countries with the best proviosion for mothers in the world such as Finland and Norway have very low birth rates. Its a much bigger issue in Japan and China. Couple of years ago I tried to start a discussion on how much the 2020s was going to be shaped by demographics, climate and energy but sort of gave up as no one really cares. But China may see its population drop by half towards the end of the century. ROK, Taiwan and other advanced east Asian nations are in similar boats. 

Russia is another that is on the way out. 

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Russia/Fertility_rate/

They had a mini boom in the 2010s as the 80s boom "echoed" that is there were more women of child birthing age. They are now headed towards their mid 40s and the big collapse of the 1990s is now hitting peak birthing age. Again very long term issues at play. 

East Europe, including the prosperous EU countries is again, worse than the UK. 

There are a lot of factors at work. Educated women tend to not want to get pregnant so literacy among women is the strongest indicator of a coming major drop in fertility. Urban living is expensive but you get a lot out of investing heavily in 2 or 3 children and their education rather than across 6-10 when you have mid level incomes (globally your sort of $15k a year type range). 

In more to most developed nations, carrying a child is hard work and painful.. Its expensive and time consuming, it takes away from your career and your leisure time. 

Every political group on the right and left will tell you "the things I want in society will fix this" so less feminism, gays, social spending on the right, more feminism, gays, trans and social spending on the left. On the whole if its not some one who spends a life studying the problem, they are probably full of shit what ever their solutions. 

In the broadest of strokes, this is just a long term thing we have known about for decades (hence the "pensions crisis as there will be too few workers compared with pensioners), to the UK specific, well for the most part we do not stand out from more conservative or more socially liberal countries. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#/media/File:Total_Fertility_Rate_Map_by_Country.svg

It mostly that well of women do not really want to have children the world over. 

Edited by dorlomin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...