The Queen of the South thread

[Manwithnoball]

31 minutes ago, 19QOS19 said:

I've maintained in all his time with us that there is a player in Cochrane. It's just finding out what he is best at and utilising it. Hopefully Bartley finds it. The early signs seem promising. 

Agreed but he is definitely better holding in midfield but Wilson is better option. Both have poor injury records though so worth keeping both.

[Alex Nesovic's Barmy Army]

4 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

In other news interesting to see that Ewan Bange, who has joined Radcliffe on loan from Blackpool for the 2nd half of the season, was left on the bench last night to accommodate the surprise signing of David Goodwillie, which was not forward announced. Goodwillie duly scored a hat trick on his debut in a 4-2 win and then was sacked this morning when the protests started!

It would appear even the 7th tier of English football isn't far enough for him to go to calm things down. Hard to see how he can play at any professional level again in the UK at least.

Blackpool released him. So it was a permanent move for Bange.

Crazy that clubs still sign Goodwillie.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Alex Nesovic's Barmy Army

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, Alex Nesovic's Barmy Army said:

Blackpool released him. So it was a permanent move for Bange.

Crazy that clubs still sign Goodwillie.

Ah, wasn't aware, thanks. I spoke to Dobs a couple of weeks ago and he said he was going back out on loan, I didn't notice it ended up being a permanent move instead.

[Alex Nesovic's Barmy Army]

2 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Ah, wasn't aware, thanks. I spoke to Dobs a couple of weeks ago and he said he was going back out on loan, I didn't notice it ended up being a permanent move instead.

Quite a drop in divisions. Didn't see enough to say whether he was good and/or had potential but was still fairly young. 

[Manwithnoball]

[DoonhamerDon]

Another decent break before the next league game. I've been trying to work out what might be needed to squeeze into that last play-off spot.

Typically you are looking at 50-60 points for 4th, the higher end of that when the league has a couple of teams really cut off at the bottom like this year.

PPG that is about 1.5/1.6 and we are running at 1.33 at the moment.

12 games left and you're looking at minimum 6 wins, more likely 8 or 9. 

As I've said a step too far IMO but you never know. Just want to get to a stage of having some optimism for next season that isn't shown to be massively misplaced by September. 

 

 

[Otis Blue]

14 hours ago, DoonhamerDon said:

Another decent break before the next league game. I've been trying to work out what might be needed to squeeze into that last play-off spot.

Typically you are looking at 50-60 points for 4th, the higher end of that when the league has a couple of teams really cut off at the bottom like this year.

PPG that is about 1.5/1.6 and we are running at 1.33 at the moment.

12 games left and you're looking at minimum 6 wins, more likely 8 or 9. 

As I've said a step too far IMO but you never know. Just want to get to a stage of having some optimism for next season that isn't shown to be massively misplaced by September. 

Yes, can't argue with that analysis.

The top two places are gone, so the battle now will be for places 3 and 4, and as you point out it will be a long shot for Queens to get there.  In particular we would need to win our games against Airdrie, Alloa (good luck with that eh?) and Montrose - so a big improvement would be required.

Even if we don't make it, the key is to be winning a few of these games, start playing well and having a basis of some key players who will form the core of our squad for next season so that we go into next season with some positivity for a change.

[Skyline Drifter]

15 hours ago, DoonhamerDon said:

Another decent break before the next league game. I've been trying to work out what might be needed to squeeze into that last play-off spot.

Typically you are looking at 50-60 points for 4th, the higher end of that when the league has a couple of teams really cut off at the bottom like this year.

PPG that is about 1.5/1.6 and we are running at 1.33 at the moment.

12 games left and you're looking at minimum 6 wins, more likely 8 or 9. 

As I've said a step too far IMO but you never know. Just want to get to a stage of having some optimism for next season that isn't shown to be massively misplaced by September.

 

1 hour ago, Otis Blue said:

Yes, can't argue with that analysis.

The top two places are gone, so the battle now will be for places 3 and 4, and as you point out it will be a long shot for Queens to get there.  In particular we would need to win our games against Airdrie, Alloa (good luck with that eh?) and Montrose - so a big improvement would be required.

Even if we don't make it, the key is to be winning a few of these games, start playing well and having a basis of some key players who will form the core of our squad for next season so that we go into next season with some positivity for a change.

I had a look at this division across the last decade. Obviously seasons 19/20 and 20/21 were short seasons but the other 8 saw following points achieved by teams in 4th (5th place in brackets): 2022 51 (46), 2019 51 (48), 2018 59 (58), 2017 50 (46), 2016 51 (49), 2015 59 (58), 2014 49 (48), 2013 54 (52)

Clearly the 2019 and 2015 seasons were outliers with 59 needed for playoffs. In the other 6 years 53 would get you in and in five of them 50 would in reality have done it. It's fair to say a couple of teams marooned and pretty much losing every week increases everybody's else's average. It's also fair to say that one or two teams winning every week reduces it. It's in our interest for Dunfermline, and probably Falkirk, to start beating everyone else, certainly that middle group of Airdrie, Alloa, Edinburgh and Montrose.

4th placed Alloa are currently on schedule for 58 - 59 points so it's probably fair to say it's likely we'll need 56+ to get in, and @Otis Blue blue is absolutely right in that the 5 games against Airdrie, Alloa, Montrose and Edinburgh are likely to be the most critical. No better way to climb the table than winning head to heads against sides immediately above. We basically need 2 points a game from our remaining 12. Unless at least 2 of Airdrie, Alloa and Edinburgh go backwards we're going to have to win about 8 of our last 12 to get in, and we've two games with Dunfermline in there. It's achievable, but it will be difficult. It felt like a really big 3 points we dropped at Montrose recently and still does. The upcoming games against Kelty and Airdrie are particularly important. We need to be winning those if any serious possibility of getting into the top 4 by season's end and we've beaten neither side so far.

[DoonhamerDon]

Massive head to head games with that middle pack then and hopefully we do enough to keep interest in the hunt for the rest of the season.

Signs of improvement from Bartley are there but the proof is in the pudding. 

Weve managed 9 wins in the league (Peterhead x3, Edinburgh x3, Clyde x2 and Montrose x1) from 24 games.

Basically need to do that again but in half the amount of games and against better sides - not impossible but would need a big step up.

Would be an excellent achievement and some turnaround from MB if we managed it.

[Otis Blue]

So its a long shot, and wins against the middle pack (including I think Kelty who we haven't beaten yet and are next up for us) are going to be essential if we are to claw anything back.  Skyline's also correct in that the recent loss to Montrose will probably prove painful for us in the long run.  But we've nothing to lose, we need to go for it and it could be a fun run in.

[Skyline Drifter]

14 minutes ago, Otis Blue said:

So its a long shot, and wins against the middle pack (including I think Kelty who we haven't beaten yet and are next up for us) are going to be essential if we are to claw anything back.  Skyline's also correct in that the recent loss to Montrose will probably prove painful for us in the long run.  But we've nothing to lose, we need to go for it and it could be a fun run in.

Wins against Kelty are important in that we need to win lots of games and they should be winnable. They're not directly as crucial as the "middle pack" though as we're already above them and if we're going to accumulate the sort of points return that would get us into the right playoffs then Kelty won't be a factor in doing so. Kelty games will be more difficult than Peterhead and Clyde because they are considerably better than Peterhead and Clyde. They are no more crucial though. Ultimately if we're going to draw game or lose one and still do it then it matters not whether that game is v Falkirk, Dunfermline, Kelty, Peterhead or Clyde. Those games are pretty much all as important or unimportant as each other.

[Slipmat]

If you aren't planning on travelling to the Kelty game you may be interested to know that the reserves' South Challenge Cup tie against Nithsdale Wanderers has now been scheduled for Saturday 18 February, 2pm kick off, at Lorimer Park.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Slipmat

[Greenacres]

On 09/02/2023 at 09:42, Otis Blue said:

Yes, can't argue with that analysis.

The top two places are gone, so the battle now will be for places 3 and 4, and as you point out it will be a long shot for Queens to get there.  In particular we would need to win our games against Airdrie, Alloa (good luck with that eh?) and Montrose - so a big improvement would be required.

Even if we don't make it, the key is to be winning a few of these games, start playing well and having a basis of some key players who will form the core of our squad for next season so that we go into next season with some positivity for a change.

Very difficult to make the playoffs .

I can see us winning a few games but not anywhere near the level we need. 

All about next season and trying to keep a good core of the squad together  now which again will be difficult .

The 3 loan players will all be available all getting released but if they do well with us we will struggle to keep them .

Would try and keep Todd Cochrane McGrory Hendrie Connelly East and most difficult will be Paton .

Think Wilson Reilly Gibson Brydon  and a few other youngsters are on 2 year deals .

 

[Otis Blue]

3 minutes ago, Greenacres said:

Very difficult to make the playoffs .

I can see us winning a few games but not anywhere near the level we need. 

All about next season and trying to keep a good core of the squad together  now which again will be difficult .

The 3 loan players will all be available all getting released but if they do well with us we will struggle to keep them .

Would try and keep Todd Cochrane McGrory Hendrie Connelly East and most difficult will be Paton .

Think Wilson Reilly Gibson Brydon  and a few other youngsters are on 2 year deals .

 

It's a very long shot from where we are now. But who knows, a wee run of wins at 3 points a pop combined with one of the teams currently above us hitting the buffers and its amazing how quickly things can change.  Even if we don't make the top 4, a few wins and playing better keeps the interest going and brings some positivity to the club.  All the while Marvin is working on who he keeps for next season and talking to agents about who could be available next season - which, as you say, is the big picture now.

[Manwithnoball]

36 minutes ago, Otis Blue said:

It's a very long shot from where we are now. But who knows, a wee run of wins at 3 points a pop combined with one of the teams currently above us hitting the buffers and its amazing how quickly things can change.  Even if we don't make the top 4, a few wins and playing better keeps the interest going and brings some positivity to the club.  All the while Marvin is working on who he keeps for next season and talking to agents about who could be available next season - which, as you say, is the big picture now.

Who should we keep for next season?

Only Brydon, Gibson, P McKay, Reilly and Wilson are under contract.

Logan has been released by Hearts. Dabrowski out of contract at Hibs. Kabia out of contract at Livi.

Surely gives us a chance with these players if they are interested in staying and are up to the standard Bartley is looking for with us although in a short space of time I would imagine Dabrowski will not be short of offers,

Reilly has been told he is free to leave on loan initially and is obviously not part of the managers plan.

Wilson and Connelly injury records this year have been poor but Wilson is a fantastic player and gives such a presence when available. Connelly has been average this year when he has played but I think he needs a run of games to see the best of him. 

All the other guys out of contract are fighting for their futures. Some will no doubt want to look elsewhere and some may want to stay to be part of the future project under Bartley.  Interesting few months ahead.

 

[the_palmy_pie]

Confirmation in todays Dumfries Courier that the 3G pitch will be replaced in the Summer

[19QOS19]

2 hours ago, Otis Blue said:

It's a very long shot from where we are now. But who knows, a wee run of wins at 3 points a pop combined with one of the teams currently above us hitting the buffers and its amazing how quickly things can change.  Even if we don't make the top 4, a few wins and playing better keeps the interest going and brings some positivity to the club.  All the while Marvin is working on who he keeps for next season and talking to agents about who could be available next season - which, as you say, is the big picture now.

For me the only thing stopping us finishing in the Top 4 will be us. Considering how bad we've been it's pretty incredible we're only 7 pts off 3rd spot (with 36pts left to play for) so it's not like other sides form is going to stop us from grabbing a place. And as you say, a run of wins can change that league drastically. 

If the players can buy in to what Bartley is wanting then there's every chance we can get a playoff spot. Given how often they've given us hope only to tear it down, I'm not holding my breath. 

I don't expect us to make the playoffs so won't be angry with Bartley if we fail to do it. But it's definitely a realistic goal. 

[Otis Blue]

1 hour ago, Manwithnoball said:

Who should we keep for next season?

Of those contracted beyond this season, Brydon (signed by Bartley) is obviously part of the plans and young Gibson is clearly a talent to be developed.  Wilson is a great midfield asset but he's made of glass and sadly can't be relied on - and Bartley will know this.  Reilly isn't rated by Bartley and will be off if someone will take him, as will P McKay.

Loanees - Dabrowski is a no-brainer and we'll offer him a contract but he'll probably command better offers than us.  Logan and Kabia I'm not sure, Bartley has been happy to bring them in and have a look at them so it will depend how they perform in the rest of this season.  I haven't seen either yet so can't express a view on them.

I think Bartley likes the energy that the younger prospects bring to the team (eg McKechnie, Muir, Irving, McGrory etc) and that they fit the bill of players who can still be improved through coaching so they may be offered new deals even if they're not automatic first choice starts.

However, I'm sure that Bartley will want to build his own squad for next season.  Top priority for him will be the spine of the team: keeper, central defence and striker.  Guys like D McKay, Hendrie, McKenna, Quitongo, Murray and East (although he's generally OK for me - apart from his brain fart on Tuesday night at Hamilton) are unlikely to be offered deals.

Cochrane, Todd and Paton should be OK, although Paton may have better offers (don't know why though) - I get the feeling Paton needs an out and out front man to play off though.

Connelly is a difficult one, hasn't featured much in Bartley's short time here (mainly due to injury I think).  He's clearly talented and if motivated and playing in the right position he's an asset ... but he'll need to catch Bartley's attention before the season ends.

Generally, if any of the current squad want to be part of our plans for next season, then they've got 12 games left to show Marvin why he should keep them - they need to work hard for their contracts - and that's how it should be.

[sneeuq]

18 hours ago, Otis Blue said:

Of those contracted beyond this season, Brydon (signed by Bartley) is obviously part of the plans and young Gibson is clearly a talent to be developed.  Wilson is a great midfield asset but he's made of glass and sadly can't be relied on - and Bartley will know this.  Reilly isn't rated by Bartley and will be off if someone will take him, as will P McKay.

Loanees - Dabrowski is a no-brainer and we'll offer him a contract but he'll probably command better offers than us.  Logan and Kabia I'm not sure, Bartley has been happy to bring them in and have a look at them so it will depend how they perform in the rest of this season.  I haven't seen either yet so can't express a view on them.

I think Bartley likes the energy that the younger prospects bring to the team (eg McKechnie, Muir, Irving, McGrory etc) and that they fit the bill of players who can still be improved through coaching so they may be offered new deals even if they're not automatic first choice starts.

However, I'm sure that Bartley will want to build his own squad for next season.  Top priority for him will be the spine of the team: keeper, central defence and striker.  Guys like D McKay, Hendrie, McKenna, Quitongo, Murray and East (although he's generally OK for me - apart from his brain fart on Tuesday night at Hamilton) are unlikely to be offered deals.

Cochrane, Todd and Paton should be OK, although Paton may have better offers (don't know why though) - I get the feeling Paton needs an out and out front man to play off though.

Connelly is a difficult one, hasn't featured much in Bartley's short time here (mainly due to injury I think).  He's clearly talented and if motivated and playing in the right position he's an asset ... but he'll need to catch Bartley's attention before the season ends.

Generally, if any of the current squad want to be part of our plans for next season, then they've got 12 games left to show Marvin why he should keep them - they need to work hard for their contracts - and that's how it should be.

Agree with all of this if we stay in Div 1.  If, although unlikely, we get up to Championship then prob alters things slightly. Think some of the loanees will more likely stay and doubt Paton is good enough for Championship level. Reilly has been a real frustration as he obviously should have what it takes (esp for Div 1) but for some reason has really let himself down.

In terms of getting to the play off then we should finish above montrose and edinburgh (certainly on current form) so it depends what happens to Alloa and Airdrie. We we only play Alloa once more and we need to play Dunfermline twice then  I think it will be a really long shot to over take them. We do play Airdrie 2x so that might be the key and could be an exciting end to the season.

[Skyline Drifter]

2 hours ago, sneeuq said:

 doubt Paton is good enough for Championship level.

Wow. The worst take since Monkey Tennis decided Lyndon Dykes wasnt good enough for it either.