The Queen of the South thread

[Distant Doonhamer]

A point ay Ayr and we are safe.

If we lose both our games we'll still be safe if any of the following happen.

-Arbroath lose at Dunfermline  (we'd be safe even if Morton beat Alloa). This scenario would leave Morton on 30 points and Arbroath on 29. They play each other in the last match so we would definitely finish above one of them.

-Morton lose to Alloa.

-Ayr lose at ICT.

-Arbroath don't win at Dunfermline and Morton don't beat Alloa.

-Morton draw at home to Alloa and don't win at Arbroath. 

There may be other possible combinations.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Distant Doonhamer

[Monkey Tennis]

22 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

A point ay Ayr and we are safe.

If we lose both our games we'll still be safe if any of the following happen.

-Arbroath lose at Dunfermline  (we'd be safe even if Morton beat Alloa). This scenario would leave Morton on 30 points and Arbroath on 29. They play each other in the last match so we would definitely finish above one of them.

-Morton lose to Alloa.

-Ayr lose at ICT.

-Arbroath don't win at Dunfermline and Morton don't beat Alloa.

-Morton draw at home to Alloa and don't win at Arbroath. 

There may be other possible combinations.

That makes it sound like it's a real long shot for us to finish 9th.

The odds are still very much against, but should we lose at Ayr, nothing remarkable needs to happen thereafter.  I'd expect Morton to beat Alloa.  Nobody would be shocked by a buoyant Arbroath taking something from Dunfermline.  Then we enter a final day that would potentially allow a draw between Arbroath and Morton to get both above us.

I still don't think we'll wind up in the relegation play-offs,  but it's looking more possible now than it's looked in a long while.

[Distant Doonhamer]

Just now, Monkey Tennis said:

That makes it sound like it's a real long shot for us to finish 9th.

The odds are still very much against, but should we lose at Ayr, nothing remarkable needs to happen thereafter.  I'd expect Morton to beat Alloa.  Nobody would be shocked by a buoyant Arbroath taking something from Dunfermline.  Then we enter a final day that would potentially allow a draw between Arbroath and Morton to get both above us.

I still don't think we'll wind up in the relegation play-offs,  but it's looking more possible now than it's looked in a long while.

Yep there's a sequence of results none of which would be outrageous that could see us 9th. I've outlined some examples of things which are equally likely to keep us above 9th. 

Like you I don't think we'll be 9th but of course the longer it goes without that being confirmed the more likely it is to happen.  

[Northfield 53]

39 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

A point ay Ayr and we are safe.

If we lose both our games we'll still be safe if any of the following happen.

-Arbroath lose at Dunfermline  (we'd be safe even if Morton beat Alloa). This scenario would leave Morton on 30 points and Arbroath on 29. They play each other in the last match so we would definitely finish above one of them.

-Morton lose to Alloa.

-Ayr lose at ICT.

-Arbroath don't win at Dunfermline and Morton don't beat Alloa.

-Morton draw at home to Alloa and don't win at Arbroath. 

There may be other possible combinations.

Ayr beat Queens get a draw at Inverness .

Morton beat Alloa  

Arbroath draw at Dunfermline .

Arbroath then play out a draw with Morton ..

Queens lose to Dundee then with our  poor goal difference we finish 9th ..all seems very probable to me .

 

 

 

[Monkey Tennis]

6 minutes ago, Northfield 53 said:

Ayr beat Queens get a draw at Inverness .

Morton beat Alloa  

Arbroath draw at Dunfermline .

Arbroath then play out a draw with Morton ..

Queens lose to Dundee then with our  poor goal difference we finish 9th ..all seems very probable to me .

 

 

 

Possible, but not probable.

Ayr look favourites to finish 9th to me, but Saturday is huge for us now. 

[Distant Doonhamer]

Ayr beat Queens get a draw at Inverness .
Morton beat Alloa  
Arbroath draw at Dunfermline .
Arbroath then play out a draw with Morton ..
Queens lose to Dundee then with our  poor goal difference we finish 9th ..all seems very probable to me .
 
 
 

It’s entirely possible but that doesn’t make it probable. That you find it “very probable” is easy to believe though.
The notion that the sequence of results you outline is more probable than for example a single one of QOS getting a draw at Ayr, Arbroath losing at Dunfermline or Ayr losing at ICT is daft. Can it happen, of course it can, but the odds remain that it won’t.

[Guest Flash]

Assuming we lose both games, Ayr need a point at ICT for us to finish 9th. That much is certain and assumed to happen in the rest of this.

The other results to put us 9th have different possibilities. Probably easier to just look at Dunfermline v Arbroath first.

If Arbroath beat Dunfermline, Morton need a minimum of a draw with Alloa and a win over Arbroath or a win over Alloa and a draw with Arbroath. 
If Arbroath draw with Dunfermline, Morton must beat Alloa and draw with Arbroath. No other combination works.
If Arbroath lose to Dunfermline, the other results don’t matter.

Note that if Arbroath beat Dunfermline and Morton win their last two games, we still finish 9th even if we get a draw with Dundee but only if Ayr beat ICT.
Edited cos its late.
 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Flash

[Nithsdale Wanderer]

Of course we could still finish 4th IF  etc................

Just confirms what a close, competitive Division the Championship is.

[Jamie_M]

Let's hope the Queens team aren't shitting the bed like their fans seem to be and just bitchslap that rotten Ayr team.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Jamie_M

[Jeff Venom]

Let's hope the Queens team aren't shitting the bed like their fans seem to be and just bitchslap that rotten Ayr team.

They will, Clyde rolled in to town during the heinous L1 schedule and swatted us out the cup with relative ease. The best we can hope for is another howling 0 0.

[Distant Doonhamer]

9 minutes ago, Jamie_M said:

Let's hope the Queens team aren't shitting the bed like their fans seem to be and just bitchslap that rotten Ayr team.

Not all of us are shitting the bed.

I'm confident we'll be fine. Still the occasional wet fart but definitely still confident. 

[19QOS19]

Let's hope the Queens team aren't shitting the bed like their fans seem to be and just bitchslap that rotten Ayr team.

I'm fairly confident we're safe due to the other sides fixtures. The only reason there is a slight doubt is due to our side being very good at shitting the bed.

[Slipmat]

Still no word on the Dapo appeal?

The SFA dragging their heels as usual, which must be a hindrance to AJ in settling on a starting line-up and tactics* for what is building up to be one of the most crucial games of the season.

* based on recent evidence AJ doesn't believe in a tactical approach to games.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Slipmat

[Guest Flash]

1 hour ago, Jamie_M said:

Let's hope the Queens team aren't shitting the bed like their fans seem to be and just bitchslap that rotten Ayr team.

Not really sure how looking at the possible results that put us 9th qualifies as shitting the bed. Are you saying that if Morton were in our position, you wouldn’t even look at it? Or, if you did, you’d be on here saying there was no chance of the possible results happening and that Morton were definitely 100% safe?
At this stage of the season, I think most fans look at what needs to happen in order for them to finish second, top four or ninth. Just because you look at it doesn’t mean you necessarily think it will happen, just that it could.
As for the players, in recent weeks, we have had fans on here handing us the three points, including when we played Morton, and each time the opposition has won. Understandably, some Morton fans were saying we were big favourites because Morton had only had one win in twelve. They have now had 2 wins in 17, the additional win coming against Queens. Alloa have also had 2 wins in 17, both against Queens.
I’m not sure if it qualifies as shitting the bed. These results probably happen because, overall, there is very little difference between the bottom 5 teams and games between them are pretty much 50/50.
 

[Dougie Mills]

I’m officially shitting the bed.  

[Monkey Tennis]

3 hours ago, Dougie Mills said:

I’m officially shitting the bed.  

Yes totally.

Anyone who thinks we might lose to Ayr, must recognise that a ninth place finish is distinctly possible.

[Distant Doonhamer]

4 hours ago, Dougie Mills said:

I’m officially shitting the bed.  

 

45 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Yes totally.

Anyone who thinks we might lose to Ayr, must recognise that a ninth place finish is distinctly possible.

I'll likely "shit the bed" if we do lose to Ayr rather than now. Three possible outcomes in that match two of which would see us safe. Even if we lose then if Arbroath lose at Dunfermline we'll still be safe. If we lose at Ayr and Arbroath draw at Dunfermline then if Morton don't beat Alloa then  that makes us safe too.

Bed shitting at this stage premature IMHO.

Don't get me wrong if there's still a risk of 9th after Saturday then I'll be as worried as anybody.  

Edited April 21, 2021 by Distant Doonhamer

[oldhat]

3 hours ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

Bed shitting at this stage premature IMHO

Yes, but I've got a bucket of warm water  and a clean pair of boxers beside the bed, just in case.

[Guest Flash]

After reading the different permutations on the relegation dogfight thread and this one, I have to admit that I’m confused. Are we knicker wetting or shitting the bed? If it is both, I’ll need more Daz.

[19QOS19]

After reading the different permutations on the relegation dogfight thread and this one, I have to admit that I’m confused. Are we knicker wetting or shitting the bed? If it is both, I’ll need more Daz.

To clarify:-

QoS fans - knicker wetters.

QoS side - shitters of the bed.

Add in the George Galloway debacle and we really are an unsanitary football club.