The years of discontent, 2022/23

[ICTChris]

More strike action, this time due to threatening pupils.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-63583997
 

[Leith Green]

I think we are probably in for at least a year or two of strikes, service cuts etc.

I have every sympathy with people looking for a pay rise to keep pace with inflation. The obvious problem is that "the pot of cash" hasnt gone up in line with rocketting  inflation.

I cant see any way this circle is squared except for even larger cuts to our public services (some of which simply have no fat to cut).

The UK govt at least have the possibility of borrowing to pay for services or salary rises - the Scottish Govt dont have that facility so it might be even worse up here.

The only silver lining is that climate change means that we dont need to put the heating on today.....................

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

I think we are probably in for at least a year or two of strikes, service cuts etc.

I have every sympathy with people looking for a pay rise to keep pace with inflation.

That problem will disappear in the middle of the year, though, when the impact of the war is reduced, and inflation nose dives. 

I suspect unions know this, hence the clamour for 10% demands and strikes if this is refused.

[coprolite]

40 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

I think we are probably in for at least a year or two of strikes, service cuts etc.

I have every sympathy with people looking for a pay rise to keep pace with inflation. The obvious problem is that "the pot of cash" hasnt gone up in line with rocketting  inflation.

I cant see any way this circle is squared except for even larger cuts to our public services (some of which simply have no fat to cut).

The UK govt at least have the possibility of borrowing to pay for services or salary rises - the Scottish Govt dont have that facility so it might be even worse up here.

The only silver lining is that climate change means that we dont need to put the heating on today.....................

The "pot of cash" isn't exactly a fixed amount decided by external factors. It can be increased. 

The Scottish government can raise tax. If the UK government increases uk spending through borrowing then Barnet gives more money to Scotland. Consumer price Inflation will be increasing the tax take from VAT especially on fuel. Rising wages will be increasing income tax and NIC receipts.

VAT is only a nominal rise but because of threshholds and allowances income tax and NICs will be a real terms rise. But then wage increases below inflation are only a nominal rise too. Obviously receipts from excise duties will be falling in real terms. 

I'm not suggesting that there's enough in current budgets to fully meet all pay demands but inflation and government choices both affect both sides of the tax and spend equation. 

 

[Leith Green]

2 minutes ago, coprolite said:

The "pot of cash" isn't exactly a fixed amount decided by external factors. It can be increased. 

The Scottish government can raise tax. If the UK government increases uk spending through borrowing then Barnet gives more money to Scotland. Consumer price Inflation will be increasing the tax take from VAT especially on fuel. Rising wages will be increasing income tax and NIC receipts.

VAT is only a nominal rise but because of threshholds and allowances income tax and NICs will be a real terms rise. But then wage increases below inflation are only a nominal rise too. Obviously receipts from excise duties will be falling in real terms. 

I'm not suggesting that there's enough in current budgets to fully meet all pay demands but inflation and government choices both affect both sides of the tax and spend equation. 

 

I understand that, but its a tricky balance - if the Scot Govt increases taxes the very voices currently screaming that its their fault the nurses cant get a rise will just change their aim at the income tax rises.

The point you make about Barnett is valid, but everything so far points to Hunt going down the route of cuts rather than borrowing to invest.

Both govts issue is that they cant properly negotiate as they cant see when the inflationary rises will slow down - it may happen later in 2023, but lots of external factors.

[scottsdad]

32 minutes ago, coprolite said:

The "pot of cash" isn't exactly a fixed amount decided by external factors. It can be increased. 

The Scottish government can raise tax. If the UK government increases uk spending through borrowing then Barnet gives more money to Scotland. Consumer price Inflation will be increasing the tax take from VAT especially on fuel. Rising wages will be increasing income tax and NIC receipts.

VAT is only a nominal rise but because of threshholds and allowances income tax and NICs will be a real terms rise. But then wage increases below inflation are only a nominal rise too. Obviously receipts from excise duties will be falling in real terms. 

I'm not suggesting that there's enough in current budgets to fully meet all pay demands but inflation and government choices both affect both sides of the tax and spend equation. 

 

Whilst true, signs from Westminster point to spending cuts rather than spending rises.

[coprolite]

22 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

I understand that, but its a tricky balance - if the Scot Govt increases taxes the very voices currently screaming that its their fault the nurses cant get a rise will just change their aim at the income tax rises.

The point you make about Barnett is valid, but everything so far points to Hunt going down the route of cuts rather than borrowing to invest.

Both govts issue is that they cant properly negotiate as they cant see when the inflationary rises will slow down - it may happen later in 2023, but lots of external factors.

Agree the governments (Uk and nations) are between a rock and a hard place, less so the UK government, but the narrative that they have no choice is false. (not saying you're pushing that narrative, but it's out there). 

[doulikefish]

General strike up the workers 

[mathematics]

21 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I think the question has to be reasonably asked of those striking in public sector jobs in Scotland - what public services do you want to see cut and by how much to fund pay rises above those the Scottish Government is able to pay you from its fixed budget?

Trident .

[mathematics]

Just now, oaksoft said:

Trident is a reserved issue. I am asking about what the SG can cut as they'll be paying for these pay rises.

Pulling and sharing, family of nations, better together.

[mathematics]

2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Trident is a reserved issue. I am asking about what the SG can cut as they'll be paying for these pay rises.

That is to say, I’ve no idea.

[KD1711]

5 hours ago, doulikefish said:

General strike up the workers 

Mad that Matt Hancock has went on strike and is getting £400,000 for it.

Funny watching him on I'm a Celeb claiming he's there to show that politicians are people too bla bla, would have more respect for him if he just said for the big fat cheque.

[mathematics]

I know that if my salary had risen with inflation since 2009 I’d be £13000 a year better off.

Edited November 11, 2022 by mathematics

[Dawson Park Boy]

1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

No, I've no idea either.

What I do know though is that a pay rise equal to inflation is not needed to counter the impact of inflation.

10% inflation does not require 10% pay rises for example.

Exactly.

Inflation will drop off fairly quickly whilst a 10% pay rise immediately increases your base and stays forever.

That’s why  the unions are so militant at the moment. It is their job, after all.

[coprolite]

2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Yeah, Truss tried that.

And we all know how that turned out....

No she didn't. 

 

The problem with Truss's budget wasn't that it increased spending. In part ot was that it reduced tax and in part because it was arbitrary and unsupported. 

They were still looking at cutting spending (real terms) to fund reduced tax and did put cost cutting measures in place for some benefits. 

It would be perfectly possible to increase spending along with either a bigger increase in taxation or an actual budgeted plan for how any growth multiplier effects of a fiscal expansion would create enough future tax revenue to fund the borrowing required. 

 

Anyways, my comment  was in response to "The UK govt at least have the possibility of borrowing to pay for services or salary rises" Obviously the effect that this has on Barnet doesn't give the national governments control over that decision. 

 

[coprolite]

13 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

No, I've no idea either.

What I do know though is that a pay rise equal to inflation is not needed to counter the impact of inflation.

10% inflation does not require 10% pay rises for example.

I also know that if inflation is 10% and you get a 6% pay rise that isn't a 4% drop in pay as people keep wrongly claiming.

I wonder if this is just poor education in terms of arithmetic which causes this logical mistake or whether those spouting it are deliberately misleading the public and thermselves.

It depends on what you do with your money. If you spend it all, as many people do, then you need your pay to keep pace with inflation, on average, to maintain your consumption. 

If you spend a lot servicing debt, the percentage inrease in that could well be above inflation because of the link between inflation and interest. An inflationary pay rise may be insufficient. 

If you save a lot you can probably save less and cope. 

Obviously there's a lot of variation and people's personal inflation rates will vary according to their basket of goods. People who don't use fuel or electricity or who don't eat any staple foods should be fine. 

[RH33]

Teachers to walk out on 24th November.

If they get their pay rise and then local authorities then cut back on classroom assistants and ASNA, I wonder how long it will take the EiS to moan about lack of support staff.

[SweeperDee]

Teachers to walk out on 24th November.
If they get their pay rise and then local authorities then cut back on classroom assistants and ASNA, I wonder how long it will take the EiS to moan about lack of support staff.

Uncap bankers bonuses, lower corporation tax, but not enough money for the public sector? Aye, okay.

[RH33]

41 minutes ago, SweeperDee said:

Uncap bankers bonuses, lower corporation tax, but not enough money for the public sector? Aye, okay.

I'm not saying that public sector isn't worthy of pay rises but the EiS is never happy.

[Michael W]

38 minutes ago, SweeperDee said:

Uncap bankers bonuses, lower corporation tax, but not enough money for the public sector? Aye, okay.

What would you like the Scottish Government to do about those two things? Indeed, the latter isn't happening and the reverse is actually true - it's increasing to 25%. 

Unless they can find more money from somewhere, whether that be depriorirising other spending or using its tax raising powers, the SG is not really in a great position here to end the dispute.