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The years of discontent, 2022/23


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6 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I don't accept it because it's an abuse of statistics.

For the same reason that if food prices drop tomorrow and your pay stays the same, you've not automatically just had a pay rise.

What?

If there was deflation it would be a real terms pay rise. 

You say abuse, i say use. 

You referring to "the mythical average person" leads me to believe that you don't understand how to use statistics. They're information that requires critical evaluation, not a description of reality. 

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I'm saying that it doesn't necessarily follow that rising inflation means your outgoings necessarily rise too. It's got nothing to do with whether I'm still working or not.
An x% increase in fuel for example, does not require a x% pay rise.
Yes but an X increase in fuel coupled with a pay rise less than X leaves someone in real terms worse off so to even stand still pay has to rise at least in equivalence at the rate your outgoings are rising at.

I don't live extravagantly but my outgoings have raised by more than inflation simply on day to day essentials like fuel, gas, electricity and shopping. Gas and Electricity alone have seen huge double digit % rises. You moan about them often enough in the specific thread. Even a 5% pay rise right now will not cover the rise in the cost of living for Mr/Mrs Average.
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The confusion is occurring  because some of you guys are using the word "pay" to describe two completely different things.
Pay is income.
Bills are an outgoing.
Some of you are presenting "income minus some outgoings" as "pay".
It's not. It's deliberate misrepresentation.
In business, we at least have a different word called "profit" to describe "income minus expense".
We are not we are describing the shortfall as a REAL TERMS pay cut, not a cut in pay. Pay is not being cut, no one is saying that.

You know exactly what we mean too. The phrase has been used universally for decades.
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1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:

Yes but an X increase in fuel coupled with a pay rise less than X leaves someone in real terms worse off so to even stand still pay has to rise at least in equivalence at the rate your outgoings are rising at.

It doesn't have to do any such thing, because you are free at any time to reduce your outgoings and still benefit from the actual rise to income that you're getting. Some very important essential outgoings are rising but consumption can be reasonably reduced. At the same time, there are plenty of non-essential costs that people can chuck out or decide that they want to keep. That's up to them. 

The focus for any inflation-matching support needs to go to the bottom of the income scale, because those people have far less agency than a two person, two car household on £60k a year to deal with the consequences. 

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1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

So if prices drop are you going to be talking about that being a de-facto pay rise?

I ask because I have never heard anyone make that argument. This abuse of statistics is only ever ramped up when it's about "pay cuts".

To answer you directly. If your pay goes up £100 per month and fuel goes up £200 per month, you've had a pay rise of £100 per month.

Income and outgoings are two separate entities.

Well yes. Firstly, i dont think it will ever happen whereby the prices drop enough for the £100 a month to be called a pay rise. 

I get the point made earlier that all public workers cant expect a 9% pay increase without somethingf having to give. However, if i am working for a company that is making an absolute fortune (like a lot of companies are) then i would be pretty disappointed if they offered a salary increase which didnt, at least, show that they wanted to help their staff offset some of the price increases ongoing. All whilst exec pay is continuing to increase. 

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f**k me all we all need to do is STFU and cut back to the bone rather than get a decent pay rise. What a time to be alive this truly is proving to be.

Of course the basic assumption from anyone spouting such shite it that no one has thought of that or is doing that. Total Ivory Towers pish from the usual suspects.

Must be wonderful being Virg or Oaky living on Tesco basics with the lights off and just putting on an extra three jumpers come autumn, truly The Good Life.

Unfortunately over in the REAL world that was already reality for thousands in low paid jobs. You pair really don't have a single clue about real life though.

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16 minutes ago, virginton said:

It doesn't have to do any such thing, because you are free at any time to reduce your outgoings and still benefit from the actual rise to income that you're getting. Some very important essential outgoings are rising but consumption can be reasonably reduced. At the same time, there are plenty of non-essential costs that people can chuck out or decide that they want to keep. That's up to them. 

The focus for any inflation-matching support needs to go to the bottom of the income scale, because those people have far less agency than a two person, two car household on £60k a year to deal with the consequences. 

Can it though? The two main drivers of the shit going on are fuel and gas/elec. You are pretty limited in what you can do with either of them. Yes some people can drive less but a lot of people dont have that option. You could use less gas/elec which you may get away in the summer, however, very limited in winter. Plus it shouldnt really be that in one of the richest countries in the world we have people who have to switch their heating off or not have a hot meal to ensure they are able to survive. 

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2 minutes ago, Aufc said:

Well yes. Firstly, i dont think it will ever happen whereby the prices drop enough for the £100 a month to be called a pay rise. 

I get the point made earlier that all public workers cant expect a 9% pay increase without somethingf having to give. However, if i am working for a company that is making an absolute fortune (like a lot of companies are) then i would be pretty disappointed if they offered a salary increase which didnt, at least, show that they wanted to help their staff offset some of the price increases ongoing. All whilst exec pay is continuing to increase. 

There's an argument that they shouldn't be doing that.  If they choose not to give high pay increases it would be appalling if execs got good pay increases.  I'm not holding my breath there will be anything fair about all this though.

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15 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

And that bit in bold is the entire problem.

I know this is counter-intuitive but whether your company can afford the pay rise isn't relevant. It's also galling but irrelevant what directors and company owners are paid.

If these general staff pay rises go through it won't matter whether they are deserved or not. It'll cause an explosion in inflation and before you know it everyone will be back on here complaining about their 9% pay rise not being enough to cope with 18% inflation and 10% interest rates.

This is exactly what happened in the 70s and to fix it required the Thatcher years.

That is the bigger picture of what risks we face.

Well the only alternative is that the government put through large tax cuts to help the poorer people and put more money in their pocket. 

Also, i dont think what you say is true. Giving most people a 9% will only allow them to keep their head above water. Will help them not have to sit in their house with three jumpers on. Will help them be able to use their gas to cook themselves a hot meal every night. Giving them a 9% increase is not going to see them suddenly splashing the cash

Someone on £25k a year getting a 9% pay rise is an extra £2,250 a year. Thats an extra £187.50 a month before tax and NI etc. So maybe about an extra £140 a month in their hand. It is hardly allowing to suddenly change their lifestyle and go out and spend lots of cash. As i said above, i would think that will mostly get eaten up by gas and electricity. 

 

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5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

The average person is going to have to cut back on a holiday or their Netflix subscription. They are not going to be struggling to survive.

This heat or eat thing is going to affect a specific number of people and targetting financial help straight at them is what is needed whilst avoiding inflationery pressure (which is the only thing which could make things even worse).

I believe that the problems of the CoL crisis will affect many more people than you imagine. 

Many working people have taken out mortgages on historic low interest rates, car loans, broadband, mobile contracts etc. They will be affected big time as they still need to pay these off. Many are up to their necks in credit card debt. 

Then you have the working young who are on low pay and zero hours contracts. Landlords will raise the rent to keep pace with their rising costs. Some of them will have car loans, broadband, mobile contracts and CC debt. 

Then you have those who have been made redundant in either of those categories. 

Then you have the long term unemployed, the sick, disabled and OAPs who for many years have struggled to eat or heat in winter.

Foodbanks are already struggling to cope. It’s going to be a very challenging winter for many people. 

I think you are out of touch with the harsh realities that many “ordinary” people are facing right now. 

We have had the impact of Brexit, Coronavirus pandemic and now a war that will affect many millions worldwide.

 

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The world’s billionaires have seen their wealth surge by over $5.5 trillion since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, a gain of over 68 percent.  The world’s 2,690 global billionaires saw their combined wealth rise from $8 trillion on March 20, 2020 to $13.5 trillion as of July 31, 2021, drawing on data from Forbes.

Global billionaire total wealth has increased more over the past 17 months of the pandemic than it did in the 15 years prior to the pandemic. Between 2006 and 2020, global billionaire wealth increased from $2.65 trillion to $8 trillion, a gain of $5.35 trillion.

Billionaires have reaped an unseemly windfall at a time when millions have lost their lives and livelihoods.  The pandemic has supercharged existing global inequalities, with the wealthy profiteering from the shuttering of the main street economies around the world”

https://inequality.org/great-divide/global-billionaire-pandemic-wealth-surges/

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61982477

Police as close to on strike as they can be...

Police Scotland officers to 'withdraw goodwill' in pay row

  • Published
    25 minutes ago
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police officersIMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Police officers in Scotland will withdraw "all goodwill" after they were offered a "derisory" £565 pay rise, the force's chief constable has been told.

The Scottish Police Federation said its members would only work overtime if lawfully ordered to do so, and then they would claim payment.

By law, police officers are not allowed to take industrial action.

Police Scotland said it was committed to seeking a pay settlement through the Police Negotiating Board.

A pay offer made to officers was rejected by the governing body of the Scottish Police Federation last week.

Calum Steele, the general secretary of the federation representing rank-and-file officers, said the action would begin at 17:00 BST on Friday.

In a letter to members, he said the action was not taken to "frustrate any investigation, or further aggravate any victim's experience".

"It is simply to demonstrate to our employers just how much discretionary effort, and free policing hours, they ordinarily take for granted," he added.

He said the action was necessary to persuade their employers to "return to the negotiating table with a fair pay offer".

In a letter to Chief Constable Sir Iain Livingstone, Mr Steele said further action would follow over coming weeks.

He said that initially the withdrawal of goodwill would amount to:

  • Police officers will not begin their shifts early
  • They will end their shifts at the rostered time unless expressly told to work late
  • If they are lawfully ordered to work additional hours, every period of overtime will be claimed for payment
  • Officers will not take personal protective equipment home at the end of the day, regardless of where they are due to start their next shift
  • They will not take police equipment like Airwave radios home. "Police officers can ill afford to be adding to their domestic energy costs by charging items of police equipment at home," Mr Steele said.

The general secretary said the action had not been endorsed by the federation lightly.

"It is nonetheless a manifestation of the strength of feeling of our members of the utter contempt this pay offer represents to them," he added.

"It will not be lost on you that this is the most significant discontent in the police service since the 1970s, and the most overt demonstration of action by our members in over 100 years."

A Police Scotland spokesman said they were committed to seeking a pay settlement.

He added: "We recognise the considerable goodwill officers bring to their roles on a daily basis as they keep people safe across the country, and this is also valued by the communities they serve," a spokesman added.

Compelled to act

The Scottish Conservative's justice spokesman Jamie Greene said the action showed relations between the Scottish government and police officers had hit "rock bottom".

"These measures may seem limited but given that officers cannot legally go on strike, this is a powerful indication of how furious the police are with the SNP government, who are shamefully trying to take advantage of their limited industrial-action rights.

"It's no wonder that frontline officers feel compelled to act when the SNP government have offered them a derisory pay offer and handed them a real-terms budget cut of over £100m."

A Scottish government spokesman said: "Police officer pay has been negotiated for many years through the Police Negotiating Board (PNB), which includes police officer staff associations, the Scottish Police Authority, Police Scotland, and the Scottish government.

"The PNB process is ongoing in relation to pay for 2022/23, and we await the outcome of those discussions."

More on this story

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1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

f**k me all we all need to do is STFU and cut back to the bone rather than get a decent pay rise. What a time to be alive this truly is proving to be.

Of course the basic assumption from anyone spouting such shite it that no one has thought of that or is doing that. Total Ivory Towers pish from the usual suspects.

Must be wonderful being Virg or Oaky living on Tesco basics with the lights off and just putting on an extra three jumpers come autumn, truly The Good Life.

Unfortunately over in the REAL world that was already reality for thousands in low paid jobs. You pair really don't have a single clue about real life though.

Low paid jobs like - what exactly? Most of the workers currently on strike or discussing strikes earn more than the median full-time wage (in some cases significantly more). 

I've already stated that those on the bottom of the income should absolutely have their income lifted with inflation. A household on £60k per year - absolutely not. So your straw man argument is safely demolished.

The people who are detached from real life are the ones who:

• want the public sector to cough up inflation-proof pay rises all round

• not pay any more tax, and

• supported disastrous virtue-signalling sanctions to back up our moral indignation about Ukraine.

Well here we are, and it turns out that in the real world you cannot have all of those things. 

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1 hour ago, Aufc said:

Can it though? The two main drivers of the shit going on are fuel and gas/elec. You are pretty limited in what you can do with either of them. Yes some people can drive less but a lot of people dont have that option. You could use less gas/elec which you may get away in the summer, however, very limited in winter.

There are plenty of ways to reduce fuel usage and make fewer journeys in total (see the number of fat slobs who don't walk the length of themselves) and also ways to reduce domestic consumption as well. That's part of how a high price response should work. 

I'm really not concerned if a two car household can no longer 'afford' to run their sprogs to school in some crap SUV.

Quote

Plus it shouldnt really be that in one of the richest countries in the world we have people who have to switch their heating off or not have a hot meal to ensure they are able to survive.

Which is why those at the bottom of the income scale need to have it uplifted by inflation rates, absolutely. 

The UK is rammed with people in entirely middle-class jobs and income brackets who seem to think that they're in the bottom deciles and are entitled to this special protection though. 

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4 minutes ago, virginton said:

Low paid jobs like - what exactly? Most of the workers currently on strike or discussing strikes earn more than the median full-time wage (in some cases significantly more). 

I've already stated that those on the bottom of the income should absolutely have their income lifted with inflation. A household on £60k per year - absolutely not. So your straw man argument is safely demolished.

The people who are detached from real life are the ones who:

• want the public sector to cough up inflation-proof pay rises all round

• not pay any more tax, and

• supported disastrous virtue-signalling sanctions to back up our moral indignation about Ukraine.

Well here we are, and it turns out that in the real world you cannot have all of those things. 

Not cut public services either.  Slashing a few services would be an option to free up some money for pay rises.

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