UEFA Nations League: Group B1

[BFTD]

6 minutes ago, QOSfan019 said:

How did Ukraine play did not watch the game but that score line has me worried for Tuesday 

Don't be. It was a fairly even game until Ukraine got the second and Armenia chucked it at the back. Ukraine weren't a whole lot better than against us. Some embarrassingly lazy defending from Armenia in the last twenty minutes.

No stupid red cards though, so I guess that's an improvement.

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

46 minutes ago, QOSfan019 said:

How did Ukraine play did not watch the game but that score line has me worried for Tuesday 

I stopped watching at 3-0. Ukraine weren’t impressive, but became effective once Armenia’s heads went. It was their ‘B’ team, so that much should be acknowledged.

I wouldn’t read a thing into that result beyond that Armenia are dire. Their performance at Hampden was one of the worst outside the minnows we’ve ever seen.

Really puts into perspective how bad Ireland were to not only be beaten, but outplayed.

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

17 hours ago, Donathan said:

Second place rankings (games played)

 

Ukraine 4 (3)

Serbia 3 (2) 

Iceland 3 (3)

Montenegro 1 (3)

A fair bit can still change, but this is the current rankings with the last games of round 5 being played tonight.

What do we want?

Serbia not to win tonight; not to win v Norway away on Tuesday.

Iceland not to win, but a low scoring win would be fine.

Montenegro to win or draw versus Finland.

A Finland win would likely make them best-placed second seeds with 7 points.

Our position: Beating Ireland means 6 points relative to other groups. Losing to Ukraine leaves us best second placed assuming the above happens. 

Drawing with both makes second place irrelevant.

Anyone confirm my calculations? We’ll know more tonight, though if we fail to win, it’s all or nothing v Ukraine (lose v Ukraine and there’s no chance at best second place).

[charger29]

A fair bit can still change, but this is the current rankings with the last games of round 5 being played tonight.
What do we want?
Serbia not to win tonight; not to win v Norway away on Tuesday.
Iceland not to win, but a low scoring win would be fine.
Montenegro to win or draw versus Finland.
A Finland win would likely make them best-placed second seeds with 7 points.
Our position: Beating Ireland means 6 points relative to other groups. Losing to Ukraine leaves us best second placed assuming the above happens. 
Drawing with both makes second place irrelevant.
Anyone confirm my calculations? We’ll know more tonight, though if we fail to win, it’s all or nothing v Ukraine (lose v Ukraine and there’s no chance at best second place).

I've not given up on a home playoff game (with us taking 4pts from the last two) tbh. Still just about possible I think.

Come on Albania and whatever combination of results we need from the Norway/Serbia/Slovenia/Sweden mess.

[Pie Of The Month]

Bosnia P4 8pts
Israel P4 8pts
Scotland P3 6pts
Norway P3 4pts

So a win on Tuesday guarantees a home playoff. A draw could be enough depending on who finishes bottom of Bosnia's group and therefore have their results v Bosnia not taken into account.

 

[craigkillie]

Armenia beating Ireland would also do us a favour because that would take our current tally up to 9 points.

[Donathan]

Despite our own good result last night our pot 2 probability has fallen due to the wins for Ukraine and Serbia. 
 

Second place rankings: 

 

Ukraine 4 (3)

Serbia 4 (3)

Iceland 3 (3) 

Montenegro 1 (3)

 

 

 

We have 6 from 3, but wouldn’t have any more than this as a point wins us the group anyway. 

A Sweden win over Slovenia would take them off the bottom and give an extra 2 points to Serbia and a whopping 5 extra to Norway. If Slovenia avoid defeat, it’s not possible for the runner up in that group to be above us. If Sweden do win then we’d need Norway to beat Serbia and it would go to GD.

Group B is simple, we need Iceland not to win against Albania. If they do they’ll also be on 6 and in the GD tiebreaker 

 

If Romania beat already promoted Bosnia and Montenegro avoid defeat against Finland then Romania will climb off the bottom and Montenegro would gain 6 points from that and go above us. If Romania stay bottom, the group C runner up can only go above us if Finland beat Montenegro.

 

So we pretty much need, if we lose to Ukraine:

 

- Slovenia avoid defeat v Sweden

- Albania avoid defeat v Iceland

- Bosnia avoid defeat v Romania

- Montenegro avoid defeat v Finland 

 

 

All being said we are pretty unlikely to be pot 2 if we lose on Tuesday 

[craigkillie]

You're ignoring the fact that if Armenia beat Ireland we'd go to 9 points in that table.

[Donathan]

Just now, craigkillie said:

You're ignoring the fact that if Armenia beat Ireland we'd go to 9 points in that table.

Oh yeah, if that happens we are pretty much guaranteed pot 2.

 

Cant see it happening in Dublin. 

[charger29]

So if we draw in Ukraine and Armenia beat Ireland we'd have a home playoff game, right? We'd be on 9, Israel 8 and B&H couldn't get any higher than 8.

Alternatively we draw in Ukraine, Slovenia draw/win in Sweden, Norway draw with Serbia, Finland draw/lose vs Montenegro & Romania beat B&H. I believe we'd finish above B&H on goals scored in that scenario (high scoring narrow defeat for B&H could put them above us).

Yeah....so it's likely a win is our only hope of being seeded.

Edit: in the first scenario I don't think we'd even need the Slovenia vs Sweden result to go our way. Removed it now

[craigkillie]

Most likely at least some of the League B winners will qualify automatically since they'll all be in Pot 2.

[charger29]

Most likely at least some of the League B winners will qualify automatically since they'll all be in Pot 2.

If we're 4th best in League B, I wouldn't feel great relying on two out of Norway, Israel or B&H finishing in the top 2 of their groups.

Although it depends on the draw I guess.

[Jambomo]

When are the playoffs being played?

[Lurkst]

6 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

When are the playoffs being played?

March 2024.

[Jambomo]

35 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

March 2024.

Cheers

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Maybe been covered zlready  but, does a win in Wednesday give us automatic pot 2 and a home play off, cause if it does I couldn't give a duck about draws. Let's beat these c***s again!

[craigkillie]

A draw gets us Pot 2, we might need a win for a home play-off. In my opinion the former is more important, the play-offs will be difficult to qualify from whether we're home or away in the first game, but being in Pot 2 makes us favourites to qualify automatically as long as we don't get a stinking draw.

[Donathan]

There is a benefit to winning but I wouldn’t be pushing for a winner if it’s level in the last 10 mins. I’d take a point for sure. 

[DAFC.]

Draw will be fine. We should be aiming to finish top 2 now anyway. Getting second seed will absolutely help that, unless we get a complete cnut of a draw.

Israel are in pot 2! If we don’t end up in pot 2 but they do, it’ll be an absolute joke. They are fucking pish!

[Virtual Insanity]

The Israel thing is a bit shite, get pot 2 by beating Iceland and Albania. They should really be using average points per game rather than just discounting bottom team in each group.