Jump to content

UEFA Nations League: Group B1


Donathan

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

I had a quick look and as I understand it two draws is enough for us to top this section.

Two draws will indeed do. But one win over Ireland and a loss to Ukraine won't do. Whatever happens, barring Ukraine dropping points to Armenia, we'll need to avoid defeat in Poland. If we were to lose to Ireland we'd need to win there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've got a feeling Ukraine will struggle against Armenia. I dont know if they'll drop points but a draw/narrow win wouldn't surprise me.

Judging from what their manager said after the game last night Ukraine are not a team full of confidence right now. For a manager to publicly call out his team for how they were training and imply that the result was inevitable, you'd have to think this is looking like more than just a one game blip.
No Zinchenko or Zabarnyi will be hurting them a lot too.
They called up a new CB last night so presumably Zabarnyi is out of the squad completely?

From what I remember of the first game between them, Ukraine had total control of possesion/territory but Armenia were getting into decent positions on the break a few times without getting enough players forward to support. A decent home crowd, in a game important for them too, and the Armenia players should be right up for it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, charger29 said:

From what I remember of the first game between them, Ukraine had total control of possesion/territory but Armenia were getting into decent positions on the break a few times without getting enough players forward to support. A decent home crowd, in a game important for them too, and the Armenia players should be right up for it.
 

I can't shake this feeling either y'know. Ukraine will need to up their game to win over there, and let's remember they beat Ireland I'm Yerevan and were looking threatening against us until the red card.

It's still unlikely I know, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if by kick off at Hampden we're able to settle things on the day. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Priority has to be getting the results that win us the group, whatever those are, but there is a secondary consideration of getting as many points as possible.

First of all, if we win the group then having a better record will improve our chances of being at home in the play-offs, should we need them. If we don't win the group, then being best runner-up would get us into Pot 2, and more generally the higher ranked we are, the more chance we have of making the play-offs. In reality, I think finishing 2nd will all but guarantee a play-off and we could even get one with third, but we don't want to be relying on that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Estragon said:

Ukraine picking up five bookings in the end last night, I can't see anything on how that might affect them going into the final game - anyone have a link to the discipline list?  Not sure how we're affected either.

According to Soccerway, they now have 8 players on a single caution. Two is enough for a suspension.

Zinchenko is out and served his suspension against us.  Same with Zabarnyi.

Mykolenko v Ireland (a)
Zinchenko v Armenia (h)
Matviyenko v Armenia (h)
Zabarnyi v Armenia (h)
Zabarnyi v Ireland (h)
Zinchenko v Ireland (h)
Yarmolenko v Ireland (h)
Bondar v Scotland (a)
Stepanenko v Scotland (a)
Malinovskyi v Scotland (a)
Yaremchuk v Scotland (a)
Sydrochuk v Scotland (a)

 

We have McGregor, Christie, McTominay, and Adams all on a single caution.

Half Armenia's team is out against Ukraine.  They had at least two out for second cautions gained versus us, and another two sent off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, craigkillie said:

Priority has to be getting the results that win us the group, whatever those are, but there is a secondary consideration of getting as many points as possible.

First of all, if we win the group then having a better record will improve our chances of being at home in the play-offs, should we need them. If we don't win the group, then being best runner-up would get us into Pot 2, and more generally the higher ranked we are, the more chance we have of making the play-offs. In reality, I think finishing 2nd will all but guarantee a play-off and we could even get one with third, but we don't want to be relying on that.

I was just looking into the odds of 2nd place getting us a playoff. 
 

Number of teams who finished in the top 2 of their group:

 

WC Qualifiers:

Pot 1: 10/10

Pot 2: 7/10

Pot 3: 2/10

Pot 4: 1/10

 

Euro 2020 qualifiers:

Pot 1: 10/10

Pot 2: 8/10

Pot 3: 2/10

 

 

Teams who won their group in league C have typically NOT gone on to finish in the top 2 of their qualifying group. Only 1/8 did, which was Finland for the last Euros, and that was an easier format at the time with only 24 sides in leagues A and B combined compared to 32 now. So we can assume that playoff path C will be filled with the four league C winners (Turkey, Greece, Kazakhstan and most likely Georgia although North Macedonia could still pip them). Even if one of them was to qualify outright, they’d have to be replaced with a league C or D team because no league C winner can be paired with a team from league A or B.

 

From the league A teams and league B group winners (and best runner up), you’d expect 17/18 of them to qualify directly. That leaves 2/3 sides to fill 8 places. Let’s be pessimistic and assume only 17 do, which leaves 5 spaces to fill. 
 

I think the first two would actually go to the league D winners, as I think group winners always get first priority over runners up regardless of what league they’re in. The dream scenario could be that we end up with a playoff semi final against Latvia or Estonia thanks to that rule.

 

That would leave three spots to the league B runners up would indeed sneak in.

 

A point tomorrow would clinch a top-2 finish for us but if we lose, then we can pretty much forget about finishing 2nd. We’d have to beat Ukraine to win the group, but if we drop points away to Ukraine we would almost certainly finish 3rd and be facing an uphill struggle to qualify. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Hendricks said:

Tomorrow is a massive massive Scotland match for a host of reasons. Make sure anyone who still isn't aware just how important Nations League football is to Scotland (and there are plenty!), are aware! 

I’ve been pleasantly surprised with how quickly the SFA have cottoned on to the importance of the nations league. Our record is quite impressive.

 

I live in Essex and the EPL fanboys are absolutely seething the the club season being stopped for “glorified friendlies” 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I’ve been pleasantly surprised with how quickly the SFA have cottoned on to the importance of the nations league. Our record is quite impressive.

 

I live in Essex and the EPL fanboys are absolutely seething the the club season being stopped for “glorified friendlies” 

 

Yep. I think I'm right in saying we are the only team in Europe who hasn't lost a home Nations League match! The benefits are enormous to us and coupled with the increase in the Euros teams from 16-24 we really should never be missing being part of those for the foreseeable. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Stylish Kid said:

I'm hoping for a good Scotland progression. 

 

Absolute banter scenario would be us getting into league A with England almost certain to go the other way....

England relegated if they lose in Italy tonight and even a point would leave them needing to beat Germany on Monday and have other results to their way.

 

Wales need to beat Poland by 2 clear goals to stay up.

 

We might well be the only home nation in league A next time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

England relegated if they lose in Italy tonight and even a point would leave them needing to beat Germany on Monday and have other results to their way.

 

Wales need to beat Poland by 2 clear goals to stay up.

 

We might well be the only home nation in league A next time. 

Wales just need to win against Poland to stay up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

Wales need to beat Poland by 2 clear goals to stay up.

 

13 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

Wales just need to win against Poland to stay up.

I think @Donathan made the mistake of thinking -7 was a better GD than -4.

I can say that confidently because I done the exact same thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, LiviLion said:

 

I think @Donathan made the mistake of thinking -7 was a better GD than -4.

I can say that confidently because I done the exact same thing.

Close enough! I misread Wales as being on -7 and Poland on -4.

 

Poland won 2-1 in the reverse fixture, so a 1 goal Wales win would put them equal on head to head (any 1 goal win would do this as away goals rule is scrapped now)

 

Then it goes to GD but because I got the two mixed up, I thought this would still give Poland -5 and Wales -6 GD so Poland would have survived. 
 

So actually, if Wales drop points they are down, if they win by 1 then they stay up on goal difference and if they win by 2 then they stay up on head to head 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s interesting that the single biggest benefit of winning the group is the least talked about one.

 

Forget the guaranteed playoff and forget being in the top two. Getting promoted to league A and a chance to mingle with Europe’s elite is the single best thing for the development of this young group of players 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought of another two benefits actually:

 

 

- We would also be guaranteed a pot 2 place for the next World Cup qualifying as well, so we’d be in a strong position to try and get a playoff place (and it’s likely you’ll only need to win one playoff rather than a SF + F next time)

 

- Even if we come straight back down, we’d then be seeded in pot 1 for the next UNL so we’d be in good position to get a playoff for Euro 2028

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

The World Cup qualifiers have previously been seeded by World Ranking rather than anything to do with the Nations League.

That’s unfortunate. I think nations league games count as friendlies for world ranking purpose so we will get limited benefit from our good record in the UNL 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...