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League Placing Records - From Split introduction (2000-01 Season)


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10 hours ago, Kapowzer said:

image.thumb.png.3f90f63bc28777badd82ce3d766c31d0.png

 

There are a few things in there that I find interesting at first glance:

The "one bad season" thing gives me the fear. If you look at Utd for example - a string of Top 6 finishes and *gone*. Motherwell going from 2nd to 11th in one season is er, impressive and St Johnstone could still be going down after a hugely stable, successful period. I've never seen Motherwell in the lower leagues but looking at some of the stuff on there (regardless of the context behind the individual relegations) I'm convinced I will at some point.

St Mirren are (have been) probably worse than people generally think. I view them as a peer club of ours but if you look at those numbers over the decades and compare to Killie, St Johnstone, Motherwell - there aren't many single digits there.

Aberdeen underachieve less than their supporters would have you believe but are still prone to it - but Hibs almost never punch their weight.

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1 minute ago, Swello said:

St Mirren are (have been) probably worse than people generally think. I view them as a peer club of ours but if you look at those numbers over the decades and compare to Killie, St Johnstone, Motherwell - there aren't many single digits there.

Sure, although it should be noted this is "cherry picking" a 20 year period where we have underperformed in relation to club size and catchment. In the same 20 year period previously you could argue we overachieved with numerous top 5 finishes and a Cup win.

That's not saying you are wrong, when you look at the stats they do not make great reading, but it's hardly the full picture.

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3 minutes ago, Ric said:

Sure, although it should be noted this is "cherry picking" a 20 year period where we have underperformed in relation to club size and catchment. In the same 20 year period previously you could argue we overachieved with numerous top 5 finishes and a Cup win.

That's not saying you are wrong, when you look at the stats they do not make great reading, but it's hardly the full picture.

It’s the full picture of the 12 team top league. Not cherry picking as you suggest.

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2 minutes ago, Kapowzer said:

It’s the full picture of the 12 team top league. Not cherry picking as you suggest.

I think you've taken my comment the wrong way, I wasn't accusing you of manipulating the statistics. I put cherry picking into quotes to reflect that it wasn't a direct accusation.

Simply pointing out a 20 year period is not the whole story.

 

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Just now, Ric said:

I think you've taken my comment the wrong way, I wasn't accusing you of manipulating the statistics. I put cherry picking into quotes to reflect that it wasn't a direct accusation.

Simply pointing out a 20 year period is not the whole story.

 

A twenty year period seems a fair one to me as it smooths out the average for clubs like ours that will have natural peaks and troughs as good teams are built and then unceremoniously nicked by richer teams - and even allows a couple of relegations to be averaged away as can be seen with Hearts.

It also compares a period where the league setup is relatively stable and doesn't have pre- and post-Bosman years mixed in which disproportionately affected mid-sized clubs ability to build teams.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Swello said:

A twenty year period seems a fair one to me as it smooths out the average for clubs like ours that will have natural peaks and troughs as good teams are built and then unceremoniously nicked by richer teams - and even allows a couple of relegations to be averaged away as can be seen with Hearts.

It also compares a period where the league setup is relatively stable and doesn't have pre- and post-Bosman years mixed in which disproportionately affected mid-sized clubs ability to build teams.

Sure, as I said, the last decade or two doesn't make good reading for St Mirren fans. Not trying to claim otherwise.

 

Edit: which leans into the question of "do teams roughly stay in the same place over time?" Will the big 2 (3, 4.. etc) will always be the top 2 (3, 4.. etc).

Edited by Ric
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9 minutes ago, Ric said:

Sure, as I said, the last decade or two doesn't make good reading for St Mirren fans. Not trying to claim otherwise.

 

Edit: which leans into the question of "do teams roughly stay in the same place over time?" Will the big 2 (3, 4.. etc) will always be the top 2 (3, 4.. etc).

What you seem to be subtly trying to do is remind people that St Mirren were effectively the St Johnstone of the 1980s. 

Last time they finished in the top half Dire Straits had just released Brothers in Arms
 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

What you seem to be subtly trying to do is remind people that St Mirren were effectively the St Johnstone of the 1980s.

Not really, I was replying to Swello's point that, if you look at it, St Mirren look like they have under achieved. I don't think many St Mirren fans would disagree with that.

Of course, your analogy would only work if we had somehow managed to be in the lowest tier in the leagues.. ;)

 

Edited by Ric
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Ric said:

Of course, your analogy would only work if we had somehow managed to be in the lowest tier in the leagues..
 

 


48c42975aa88ef2000482bae8eae2825.jpg

 

It was the best contemporary "Small club punching above it's weight for a protracted period" analogy I could think of at the time and the fact that you're both called Saint something lends a little extra poetry. Feel free to improve on it.

 

Edited by topcat(The most tip top)
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Pretty interesting table.

Definitely shows Motherwell to be extremely consistent.

 

Only thing I'd change is how you have classed Rangers. Perhaps you should only use their placings from 2012 (would give 97 over 10 years, an average of 9.7).

 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

It was the best contemporary "Small club punching above it's weight for a protracted period" analogy I could think of at the time and the fact that you're both called Saint something lends a little extra poetry. Feel free to improve on it.

:lol: .. no, no.. it's fine, and you are not far off. I was just having a subtle dig at St Johnstone, that's all.

 

Just now, ScottMc77 said:

Only thing I'd change is how you have classed Rangers. Perhaps you should only use their placings from 2012 (would give 97 over 10 years, an average of 9.7).

🤔 hmm.. now there's an interesting idea!

Edited by Ric
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Posted (edited)

The table is a fine example of how perception and reality are often far apart. I suppose because Aberdeen have been there or there abouts you don't really think of them missing out on 8 top 6's in 22 years.

The mid table totals ... Hibs to Killie (6 places) Killie to Arabs (7 places) are the tightest and in theory could see a leapfrog in one season if one team gets a high finish at the expense of another around them. Not beyond belief to maybe see movement by the end of 2023-24.

Outwith that Motherwell to Hearts is the next "easiest" to overhaul but safe to say Budge has learned her lessons of sentiment over being more ruthless, plus an increase of 2 this season.

It could be argued if Cathro/Levein weren't involved at Tynecastle or Budge acted quicker it could feasibly be a toss up for who is behind Celtic. Hearts still made up 7 on Aberdeen this season however.

Further down the table the gaps in totals are quite large and clubs will only show movement to the left over a sustained period of consistency (good or pish) or enforced demotion.

Of course all sorts of factors could lead to teams having a boom or bust 2020's, broke from building stadiums, American owners trying to buy success, EuroMillions winning fans ... all could factor. From the evidence of above, it would not be crazy to suggest a team may come from lower league obscurity like Livi at the turn of the century or St Johnstone from a decade or so ago and be at the party in 2030.

I did think of altering Newco's in advance of posting. I am reminded how they tell us everyone hates them but they don't care ..... so will update.

image.thumb.png.dc45b7c992fef773f19e145033650df3.png

Edited by Kapowzer
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2 hours ago, Ric said:

I think you've taken my comment the wrong way, I wasn't accusing you of manipulating the statistics. I put cherry picking into quotes to reflect that it wasn't a direct accusation.

Simply pointing out a 20 year period is not the whole story.

 

To be fair to Ric if you look at the All time Scottish Top Flight table St Mirren are 9th v 12th in the table in this thread. In terms of total points accumulated. So they have performed better in the past than the last 20 years. 

Motherwell are 6th v 5th in this table. Which show our consistency has actually lasted for the past 100 years +. Hibs leapfrog us into 5th in the all time table. Which is hardly surprising. 

And that as oppose to many of our fans beliefs the last 20 odd years has been a better period than on average for Motherwell FC. I am old enough to have see us play in what was the 1st division. Any supporter under 40 will have no recollection of Motherwell being anything other than a top flight side.

I think it is inevitable in my lifetime I will get the chance to watch Motherwell in the lower leagues. Hope not, but we are not a bigger club than the likes of Dundee, Dundee Utd, Hearts and Hibs who have all been relegated this past decade. Just been better managed during this time. 

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The table is a fine example of how perception and reality are often far apart. I suppose because Aberdeen have been there or there abouts you don't really think of them missing out on 8 top 6's in 22 years.
The mid table totals ... Hibs to Killie (6 places) Killie to Arabs (7 places) are the tightest and in theory could see a leapfrog in one season if one team gets a high finish at the expense of another around them. Not beyond belief to maybe see movement by the end of 2023-24.
Outwith that Motherwell to Hearts is the next "easiest" to overhaul but safe to say Budge has learned her lessons of sentiment over being more ruthless, plus an increase of 2 this season.
It could be argued if Cathro/Levein weren't involved at Tynecastle or Budge acted quicker it could feasibly be a toss up for who is behind Celtic. Hearts still made up 7 on Aberdeen this season however.
Further down the table the gaps in totals are quite large and clubs will only show movement to the left over a sustained period of consistency (good or pish) or enforced demotion.
Of course all sorts of factors could lead to teams having a boom or bust 2020's, broke from building stadiums, American owners trying to buy success, EuroMillions winning fans ... all could factor. From the evidence of above, it would not be crazy to suggest a team may come from lower league obscurity like Livi at the turn of the century or St Johnstone from a decade or so ago and be at the party in 2030.
I did think of altering Newco's in advance of posting. I am reminded how they tell us everyone hates them but they don't care ..... so will update.
image.thumb.png.dc45b7c992fef773f19e145033650df3.png

Seeing as you’ve got the spreadsheet handy you could do the standard deviation and rank teams from most interesting rock and roll 20 year rollercoaster ride to most reliable and boring
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1 minute ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:


Seeing as you’ve got the spreadsheet handy you could do the standard deviation and rank teams from most interesting rock and roll 20 year rollercoaster ride to most reliable and boring

You got any more Russian bankers waiting in the wings like?

Your banter will get a major boost there. 

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10 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:


Seeing as you’ve got the spreadsheet handy you could do the standard deviation and rank teams from most interesting rock and roll 20 year rollercoaster ride to most reliable and boring

I think we'd be top of that table.

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1 hour ago, Kapowzer said:

The table is a fine example of how perception and reality are often far apart. I suppose because Aberdeen have been there or there abouts you don't really think of them missing out on 8 top 6's in 22 years.

The mid table totals ... Hibs to Killie (6 places) Killie to Arabs (7 places) are the tightest and in theory could see a leapfrog in one season if one team gets a high finish at the expense of another around them. Not beyond belief to maybe see movement by the end of 2023-24.

Outwith that Motherwell to Hearts is the next "easiest" to overhaul but safe to say Budge has learned her lessons of sentiment over being more ruthless, plus an increase of 2 this season.

It could be argued if Cathro/Levein weren't involved at Tynecastle or Budge acted quicker it could feasibly be a toss up for who is behind Celtic. Hearts still made up 7 on Aberdeen this season however.

Further down the table the gaps in totals are quite large and clubs will only show movement to the left over a sustained period of consistency (good or pish) or enforced demotion.

Of course all sorts of factors could lead to teams having a boom or bust 2020's, broke from building stadiums, American owners trying to buy success, EuroMillions winning fans ... all could factor. From the evidence of above, it would not be crazy to suggest a team may come from lower league obscurity like Livi at the turn of the century or St Johnstone from a decade or so ago and be at the party in 2030.

I did think of altering Newco's in advance of posting. I am reminded how they tell us everyone hates them but they don't care ..... so will update.

image.thumb.png.dc45b7c992fef773f19e145033650df3.png

Arbroath came close, Cove and Kelty could be ones in the future.

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