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Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022


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From what I've seen

SF - no doubt a very good and historic result for them. Similar to the SNP's win in 2007, it is a bit of a historic moment and tbh, if there is a new NI executive.

DUP -  some predictions on the radio earlier have them ending up 23-25 seats, and SF on 29. So, not the humping that some polls predicted (I'm sure I seen them on 13, 14, 16% in 2022 polls at one point) but they've definitely lost a lot of votes.

Alliance - the 'big' winners of this election, looking like they'll double their seats! Massive and I'm sure they won councillors in areas in Derry, Fermanagh in the recent NI council elections and seem to be quite popular with younger/Reddit types (along with SF) Most of their vote is from liberal protestants, but they have a growing number of fans and voters from nationalist areas. A few more votes in Derry for them and a DUP-gained vote in Carrickfergus is probably good for any future form of northern Ireland.

UUP - again, don't know enough ; but I think Mike Nisbet and Doug Beattie are decent guys and sadly it seems not to be clicking with unionism, as their vote just seems to get worse every election. Heard a bit of Jeffrey Donaldson blethering on about shared unionist candidates etc in areas where DUP/UUP battles are both losing, managed decline really, like the Scottish Lib Dems really.

SDLP - seemed to gain those 2 lost Westminster seats to SF, and their excuse this time seems to be their vote has temporarily gone to SF for the historic moment of her potentially being FM. Don't think it is, tbh ; like the UUP their vote seems to slip every Stormont poll. Both seen as the softer version of SF/DUP ; a think a lot of young nationalists who aren't that fussed by a united Ireland are probably even going for Alliance or the Greens over them.

TUV - I'm going to see if someone will take my punt of the TUV being the biggest unionist party in Ireland in 15 years. As the SDLP and UUP lose small n's and u's to the Alliance and Greens ; the TUV are gaining the disgruntled ex DUP vote in big numbers. They've got a chance of getting 3 MLAs ; they've only ever had one who looks a bit like a healthier-living Alan Brazil, a bit like Farage under UKIP? But a good 20-30% chunk of the DUP vote has gone to them!

 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Kejan said:

From what I've seen

SF - no doubt a very good and historic result for them. Similar to the SNP's win in 2007, it is a bit of a historic moment and tbh, if there is a new NI executive.

DUP -  some predictions on the radio earlier have them ending up 23-25 seats, and SF on 29. So, not the humping that some polls predicted (I'm sure I seen them on 13, 14, 16% in 2022 polls at one point) but they've definitely lost a lot of votes.

Alliance - the 'big' winners of this election, looking like they'll double their seats! Massive and I'm sure they won councillors in areas in Derry, Fermanagh in the recent NI council elections and seem to be quite popular with younger/Reddit types (along with SF) Most of their vote is from liberal protestants, but they have a growing number of fans and voters from nationalist areas. A few more votes in Derry for them and a DUP-gained vote in Carrickfergus is probably good for any future form of northern Ireland.

UUP - again, don't know enough ; but I think Mike Nisbet and Doug Beattie are decent guys and sadly it seems not to be clicking with unionism, as their vote just seems to get worse every election. Heard a bit of Jeffrey Donaldson blethering on about shared unionist candidates etc in areas where DUP/UUP battles are both losing, managed decline really, like the Scottish Lib Dems really.

SDLP - seemed to gain those 2 lost Westminster seats to SF, and their excuse this time seems to be their vote has temporarily gone to SF for the historic moment of her potentially being FM. Don't think it is, tbh ; like the UUP their vote seems to slip every Stormont poll. Both seen as the softer version of SF/DUP ; a think a lot of young nationalists who aren't that fussed by a united Ireland are probably even going for Alliance or the Greens over them.

TUV - I'm going to see if someone will take my punt of the TUV being the biggest unionist party in Ireland in 15 years. As the SDLP and UUP lose small n's and u's to the Alliance and Greens ; the TUV are gaining the disgruntled ex DUP vote in big numbers. They've got a chance of getting 3 MLAs ; they've only ever had one who looks a bit like a healthier-living Alan Brazil, a bit like Farage under UKIP? But a good 20-30% chunk of the DUP vote has gone to them!

 

Probably as clear an analysis as it gets.

Interesting there's approximately a third of eligible voters who for whatever reason don't give a toss if King Billy or KFC are running the place.

Edited by Glenconner
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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Kejan said:

From what I've seen

SF - no doubt a very good and historic result for them. Similar to the SNP's win in 2007, it is a bit of a historic moment and tbh, if there is a new NI executive. 

DUP -  some predictions on the radio earlier have them ending up 23-25 seats, and SF on 29. So, not the humping that some polls predicted (I'm sure I seen them on 13, 14, 16% in 2022 polls at one point) but they've definitely lost a lot of votes.

Alliance - the 'big' winners of this election, looking like they'll double their seats! Massive and I'm sure they won councillors in areas in Derry, Fermanagh in the recent NI council elections and seem to be quite popular with younger/Reddit types (along with SF) Most of their vote is from liberal protestants, but they have a growing number of fans and voters from nationalist areas. A few more votes in Derry for them and a DUP-gained vote in Carrickfergus is probably good for any future form of northern Ireland.

UUP - again, don't know enough ; but I think Mike Nisbet and Doug Beattie are decent guys and sadly it seems not to be clicking with unionism, as their vote just seems to get worse every election. Heard a bit of Jeffrey Donaldson blethering on about shared unionist candidates etc in areas where DUP/UUP battles are both losing, managed decline really, like the Scottish Lib Dems really.

SDLP - seemed to gain those 2 lost Westminster seats to SF, and their excuse this time seems to be their vote has temporarily gone to SF for the historic moment of her potentially being FM. Don't think it is, tbh ; like the UUP their vote seems to slip every Stormont poll. Both seen as the softer version of SF/DUP ; a think a lot of young nationalists who aren't that fussed by a united Ireland are probably even going for Alliance or the Greens over them.

TUV - I'm going to see if someone will take my punt of the TUV being the biggest unionist party in Ireland in 15 years. As the SDLP and UUP lose small n's and u's to the Alliance and Greens ; the TUV are gaining the disgruntled ex DUP vote in big numbers. They've got a chance of getting 3 MLAs ; they've only ever had one who looks a bit like a healthier-living Alan Brazil, a bit like Farage under UKIP? But a good 20-30% chunk of the DUP vote has gone to them!

 

SF: Their vote didn't go up by much, about 1%, so this SDLP "analysis" of lending votes to SF doesn't hold up. SF's vote management as always was excellent, their voters voting 1/2 (and 3) as instructed. I don't think they are going to end up with many more seats than they started with - maybe 1 - but their victory looks more spectacular due to the DUP's collapse.

DUP: Their vote went to the TUV, which is a shot across the bows, depends if that vote translates into seats (for the TUV). Not as bad a result as predicted as you say Kejan, but still a real slap in the teeth for the DUP. How they rectify this I don't know. Not going into the Executive is not the answer imho. Swallowing up the UUP would help, but there are UUPers who will never vote for the DUP.

Alliance: On the crest of a wave now, and must really fancy their chances of consolidating the middle ground and becoming the third party. Unfortunately it's going to be at the expense of the SDLP and the UUP, as they're not taking (m)any votes from the big two.

UUP & SDLP: As mentioned DUP & SF lite, why vote for them when you can get the real thing? Why vote for them when you have a genuine liberal party option in the Alliance (which seems to know where it is going and what it is doing)? I don't think they are going to disappear, but they are being pushed to the margins. They could well both retain most of the seats they had at the start, all the same.

TUV: Need to get the big vote boost translated into seats, so Jim Allister isn't sitting on the naughty step by himself any more. Need to build on this and not let the votes slide back from whence they came.

However, as noted by Glenconner the big winner is the couldn't give a toss section of the electorate, 35% approximately. The big question is - would they vote in a ("divisive") border poll and which way?

Edited by Jacksgranda
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33 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Maybe the Unionist parties' support was distracted by events at Ibrox and they forgot to vote? 

Heard reports of some fans who did this - I wonder what we're talking about, 3 or 4 bus loads.

I suppose they could have voted before they left, depending where they were leaving from and which ferry they were catching.

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13 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Heard reports of some fans who did this - I wonder what we're talking about, 3 or 4 bus loads.

I suppose they could have voted before they left, depending where they were leaving from and which ferry they were catching.

Priorities ay.
its-my-island-island.gif.f06e9aed7c45b842766cad89965fffdb.gif

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Something for people to ponder:

The combined SDLP + SF vote has been in a holding pattern for almost 30 years despite all the hype about demographic shifts. A lot of the apparent electoral advances have revolved around coalescing behind one party while the Unionist vote has a greater tendency to fragment.

Most of the Alliance party is really Faulknerite Unionist as Anna Lo soon found out when she went off message in that regard so a NI protocol that arguably gives NI the best of both worlds isn't necessarily the existential threat to the Union that a much harder Brexit could very easily have been and may continue to put wind in the sails of the Alliance party in the years ahead. 

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4 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

...UUP & SDLP: As mentioned DUP & SF lite, why vote for them when you can get the real thing? Why vote for them when you have a genuine liberal party option in the Alliance (which seems to know where it is going and what it is doing)? I don't think they are going to disappear, but they are being pushed to the margins. They could well both retain most of the seats they had at the start, all the same...

The UUP definitely need to figure out why they even exist at this point. A bit of a CoI vs Presbyterian/Evangelical and social class based "decent people vote for the UUP" dynamic worked when the Alliance party was still on the fringes but not now that they have been eclipsed electorally by them and all they are doing is handing the first minister job to SF over relatively minor policy differences.

The SDLP quickly went after they launched from being Gerry Fitt style Labour to a Christian Democrat style party with the RC hierarchy pulling the strings. They seem to be losing both those niches to PBP and Aontu now so really what's the point in being SF Lite with no carefully tucked away balaclavas? 

 

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3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The UUP definitely need to figure out why they even exist at this point. A bit of a CoI vs Presbyterian/Evangelical and social class based "decent people vote for the UUP" dynamic worked when the Alliance party was still on the fringes but not now that they have been eclipsed electorally by them and all they are doing is handing the first minister job to SF over relatively minor policy differences.

The SDLP quickly went after they launched from being Gerry Fitt style Labour to a Christian Democrat style party with the RC hierarchy pulling the strings. They seem to be losing both those niches to PBP and Aontu now so really what's the point in being SF Lite with no carefully tucked away balaclavas? 

 

There are people in, and who vote for, the UUP who will never vote for the DUP. They would rather see a republican First Minister than vote DUP.

Having said that, I don't think there are thousands of them, but even 5% of 96,000 is nearly enough to get someone in on transfers. (I realise they all won't be in the same constituency.)

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8 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Something for people to ponder:

The combined SDLP + SF vote has been in a holding pattern for almost 30 years despite all the hype about demographic shifts. A lot of the apparent electoral advances have revolved around coalescing behind one party while the Unionist vote has a greater tendency to fragment.

Most of the Alliance party is really Faulknerite Unionist as Anna Lo soon found out when she went off message in that regard so a NI protocol that arguably gives NI the best of both worlds isn't necessarily the existential threat to the Union that a much harder Brexit could very easily have been and may continue to put wind in the sails of the Alliance party in the years ahead. 

^^^ clutching at straws

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NB: I thought that a Dunfermline fan claiming that it was good that their club got emptied into the seaside leagues as it will help their Premiership charge was the biggest reach of the day, but here we are. 

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Has Boris been on the web to offer his congratulations yet?  His precious Union just goes from strength to strength, doesn't it? 

Probably won't be long until someone says that the votes shouldn't have any attention paid to it, as it might not be good for the Union. 

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10 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

There are people in, and who vote for, the UUP who will never vote for the DUP. They would rather see a republican First Minister than vote DUP...

Think it's quite telling that Jeffrey Donaldson hasn't left Westminster yet as to how likely a republican First Minister is any time soon. Odds on it will be a while before Stormont is functional again and that outcome has no doubt been the DUP's plan for many months. Hence why there has been no Lagan Valley by-election.

The seethe over SF not being able to have the top job in a state they don't even believe should exist will be quite amusing in some ways but suspect the Alliance party will benefit more than the DUP will electorally because the DUP don't have any answers on what comes next because the NIP isn't going to be scrapped. 

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