Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022

[Fullerene]

15 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't think there is any doubt about it.

The DUP only need to lose 1 and SF to gain 1 and BINGO

Oh that's just what we need.  A bingo caller reading out the results.

"People's Independence Party - two fat ladies - 88."

Bad idea.

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, Fullerene said:

Oh that's just what we need.  A bingo caller reading out the results.

"People's Independence Party - two fat ladies - 88."

Bad idea.

Could take a bit of working out getting one to suit "Alliance - 7,278"

[Fullerene]

13 hours ago, sparky88 said:

100% this. Looking forward to them trying to give Deputy First Minister to some old man you wouldn't let anyone near your children just because they happen to believe in the right sort of sky fairyism in this situation. 

In Gulliver's Travels, the debate was about whether a boiled egg was opened at the big end or the little end.

I wouldn't want to vote for someone who would get that wrong.

[Jacksgranda]

Sammy Wilson saying that if the NI Protocol isn't changed they will not be in government.

A bit of a change from Jeffrey Donaldson saying he would be at Stormont on "the first day" to get things going.

There was no mention of not going into government when the DUP were floating their 5 point plan. The use of the protocol is a smokescreen to distract from the fact they don't want a Sinn Fein First Minister.

On the other hand they have 24 weeks to sort this out, and if the government negotiate changes to the Protocol in that time period, the DUP could plausibly call for another election on the basis of there had been changes to the Protocol and therefore could serve with a SF First Minister, and go to the electorate on that basis.

But if the DUP vote is substantially down, with a consequent loss of seats, I don't think they have anywhere to go.

[Michael W]

What changes to the Protocol would satisfy the DUP? 

I wouldn't ask if those changes are realistic or not, because they won't be. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Michael W

[Jacksgranda]

28 minutes ago, Michael W said:

What changes to the Protocol would satisfy the DUP? 

I wouldn't ask if those changes are realistic or not, because they won't be. 

Scrapping it altogether, which won't happen.

Maybe free flow of goods from GB to NI and vice versa where these goods aren't exported to a second country.

How that would be verified I've no idea.

[Michael W]

2 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Scrapping it altogether, which won't happen.

Maybe free flow of goods from GB to NI and vice versa where these goods aren't exported to a second country.

How that would be verified I've no idea.

It does tend to get lost in these discussions that the Protocol isn't intended to be permanent- it's there until something else replaces it. Emphasis on something else replacing it! 

In effect, it's the Northern Ireland backstop that Theresa May was hounded out over, only for Boris Johnson to go ahead and actually sign a rehashed version of it. Leo Varadkar probably couldn't believe his luck. 

Unrestricted movement of goods is unfortunately gone, at least GB-NI as the goods enter the Single Market. NI-GB isn't quite such an issue as the goods are leaving the Single Market and there is little risk to the EU as a result. Any losses (I.e. goods being deliberately routed to GB through NI to avoid customs duties) are a UK problem. 

An SPS agreement with the EU would resolve the issues with sending fresh sausages etc to NI, but won't happen under the current government. 

 

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, Michael W said:

It does tend to get lost in these discussions that the Protocol isn't intended to be permanent- it's there until something else replaces it. Emphasis on something else replacing it! 

In effect, it's the Northern Ireland backstop that Theresa May was hounded out over, only for Boris Johnson to go ahead and actually sign a rehashed version of it. Leo Varadkar probably couldn't believe his luck. 

Unrestricted movement of goods is unfortunately gone, at least GB-NI as the goods enter the Single Market. NI-GB isn't quite such an issue as the goods are leaving the Single Market and there is little risk to the EU as a result. Any losses (I.e. goods being deliberately routed to GB through NI to avoid customs duties) are a UK problem. 

An SPS agreement with the EU would resolve the issues with sending fresh sausages etc to NI, but won't happen under the current government. 

 

That's a red herring, we've better sausages here.

No results so far. Reports from the counting centres indicate SF "doing well" (whatever that means), DUP doing "better than expected" (could mean anything from 10 seats to 30), Alliance "surging", TUV polling well and the SDLP and the UUP getting "squeezed". Greens getting "wiped out".

Could end up as the staus quo ante for the big two and Alliance third with the SDLP and UUP down and the TUV with 2 seats, or a complete makeover.

[John Lambies Doos]

Sinn Fein will be largest party, and in the next Dail elections they will be largest party too.
Border Poll incoming.

[Jacksgranda]

You're bound to be right eventually

[101]

Alliance party having fun in Strangford.

[welshbairn]

SDLP think they'll lose votes to Sinn Fein to punish the DUP.

[Duries Air Freshener]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Sinn Fein will be largest party, and in the next Dail elections they will be largest party too.
Border Poll incoming.

We are nowhere near a border poll.

 

[Jacksgranda]

6 minutes ago, 101 said:

Alliance party having fun in Strangford.

Elected

[Jacksgranda]

I'm actually finding this quite interesting, more interesting than the actual campaign, which more or less passed me by.

Currently: SF 7, APNI 2, DUP 2.

Which means very little at this stage. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Jacksgranda
Update

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

SDLP think they'll lose votes to Sinn Fein to punish the DUP.

Heard that mentioned a couple of times. I think once the votes are gone, most of them never come back.

[invergowrie arab]

I'm watching UTV and getting a splitting headache listening to the declarations.

 

 

[Jacksgranda]

14 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

I'm watching UTV and getting a splitting headache listening to the declarations.

 

 

I'm listening to Radio Ulster, not giving me a headache.

Try not to cheer so loudly when Sinn Fein get in.

Currently: SF 10, APNI 2, DUP 2, UUP 1 and 1 Independent*

* AFAIK he was DUP last time out so the DUP need to win an extra seat somewhere to end up with the same number as last time - an unlikely prospect, imho.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Jacksgranda
Update

[John Lambies Doos]

I'm listening to Radio Ulster, not giving me a headache.
Try not to cheer so loudly when Sinn Fein get in.
Currently: SF 10, APNI 2, DUP 2, UUP 1 and 1 Independent*
* AFAIK he was DUP last time out so the DUP need to win an extra seat somewhere to end up with the same number as last time - an unlikely prospect, imho.

Whats the final projection from the analysts or is it too early to say?

[doulikefish]

Seen an interview with a lassie from the Alliance party earlier on basically saying if the Dup don't want to keep Stormont functioning then the rules need changed so it goes to the next party