Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2022

[Zern]

2 hours ago, Duries Air Freshener said:

A bit more complicated than that Zern.

It really isn't. Lord Frost has been lying about the NIP since he, and the government that appointed him, negotiated, signed and ratified it. They lied about there being a border in the Irish Sea. He continues to lie about it because he is not bound by any sense of responsibility or shame. It is a litany of complaints that ignore the fact that THEY were the ones pushing towards a deadline and did not care what the consequences were.

It continues today with the UK Government threatening to "trigger article 16" or abolish it completely every few weeks. An empty threat, but one they love to trot out in order to animate the Brexit fantasists.

[Duries Air Freshener]

7 minutes ago, Zern said:

It really isn't. Lord Frost has been lying about the NIP since he, and the government that appointed him, negotiated, signed and ratified it. They lied about there being a border in the Irish Sea. He continues to lie about it because he is not bound by any sense of responsibility or shame. It is a litany of complaints that ignore the fact that THEY were the ones pushing towards a deadline and did not care what the consequences were.

It continues today with the UK Government threatening to "trigger article 16" or abolish it completely every few weeks. An empty threat, but one they love to trot out in order to animate the Brexit fantasists.

Frost hasn't told one lie.

[Granny Danger]

Brexit was always going to mean a border in the Irish Sea or the return of a land border between NI and ROI.

Some folk explained that in a single sentence, others needed a lengthy thesis.  Either way it was obvious but certain people simply lied about it.  They lied about it knowing that eventually they would have to address it.

[welshbairn]

To avoid it all we needed to do was to commit to following the the EU single market regulations UK wide, which we are doing anyway. Afaik not a single regulation on standards etc has been changed. I think May was considering it before she was kicked out.

[Antlion]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

To avoid it all we needed to do was to commit to following the the EU single market regulations UK wide, which we are doing anyway. Afaik not a single regulation on standards etc has been changed. I think May was considering it before she was kicked out.

In tears, no less.

 

[williemillersmoustache]

14 hours ago, welshbairn said:

For those who can't be arsed listening to Lord Frost's nothing to do with me gov spiel, Arlene Foster does it for him at 58 mins.  The DUP thought that Brexit would mean creating a border between the North and South, instead it created a border between East and West, which Frost negotiated. No wonder the DUP are embarrassed, humiliated and angry.

The real beauty of it is, the backstop which was May's solution wouldn't have created a border anywhere on Irealnd and the only reason Frost, the ERG and the Boris fanclub railed against it was to punt her and put their ClownCunt in power. 

[LongTimeLurker]

Think many in the DUP were genuinely blindsided by the sea border. Even on here when I mentioned the issue of NI having a land border with the EU in the run up to the referedum vote some people seemed to think the Common Travel Area meant the EU's outer border somehow no longer matters. Alex Salmond had also downplayed the significance of these issues during the independence referendum after all.

The DUP were very foolish to support Brexit but like a lot of people probably assumed Remain would win so they could wave the UJ about to keep TUV in check and hadn't really thought too much about what came next. They should have tried to nudge the Tories towards the EEA and a soft Brexit if they wanted to avoid a sea customs border and are lucky the NIP is not linked to a far harder WTO type Brexit.

Nigel & co at UKIP were always going to sell them out as Little Englanders just like the Liberals did with the Home Rule Bill in 1912 and the Tories did later with Sunningdale and the Anglo-Irish Agreement so anybody who thought keeping NI out of the EU in customs terms was going to be a deal breaker for the Westminster elite in EU exit negotiations was dreaming in Technicolour. The NIP isn't going away so the DUP's going to find it difficult to cobble together a majority of pro-Union votes again because they don't have a clear vision of the way ahead.

Meanwhile the over-excited posters peddling imminent UI memes are going to be disappointed. The combined nationalist-republican vote actually dropped this time. The Alliance party can provide a vision of how to deal with the NIP that doesn't revolve around border polls and UI happening any time soon. Hopefully a similar viable alternative to the constitutionally obsessed will emerge in Scotland soon. The CAQ in Quebec provides a blueprint for how to sideline them.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The DUP were very foolish to support Brexit but like a lot of people probably assumed Remain would win so they could wave the UJ about to keep TUV in check and hadn't really thought too much about what came next. They should have tried to nudge the Tories towards the EEA and a soft Brexit if they wanted to avoid a sea customs border and are lucky the NIP is not linked to a far harder WTO type Brexit.

I really think their aim was a hard Brexit and a physical North/South border, in the hope it would stop the  growth of North/South cooperation in its tracks, in fields like energy and water for example. In their minds they saw it as creeping unification and they'd rather f**k the business community and disrupt lives than risk that. Funny the way it turned out, the ERG and Boris really sold them a pig in a poke!

[Granny Danger]

43 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

To avoid it all we needed to do was to commit to following the the EU single market regulations UK wide, which we are doing anyway. Afaik not a single regulation on standards etc has been changed. I think May was considering it before she was kicked out.

^^^ wants straight bananas with his litre of beer.

[Granny Danger]

25 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think many in the DUP were genuinely blindsided by the sea border. Even on here when I mentioned the issue of NI having a land border with the EU in the run up to the referedum vote some people seemed to think the Common Travel Area meant the EU's outer border somehow no longer matters. Alex Salmond had also downplayed the significance of these issues during the independence referendum after all.

The DUP were very foolish to support Brexit but like a lot of people probably assumed Remain would win so they could wave the UJ about to keep TUV in check and hadn't really thought too much about what came next. They should have tried to nudge the Tories towards the EEA and a soft Brexit if they wanted to avoid a sea customs border and are lucky the NIP is not linked to a far harder WTO type Brexit.

Nigel & co at UKIP were always going to sell them out as Little Englanders just like the Liberals did with the Home Rule Bill in 1912 and the Tories did later with Sunningdale and the Anglo-Irish Agreement so anybody who thought keeping NI out of the EU in customs terms was going to be a deal breaker for the Westminster elite in EU exit negotiations was dreaming in Technicolour. The NIP isn't going away so the DUP's going to find it difficult to cobble together a majority of pro-Union votes again because they don't have a clear vision of the way ahead.

Meanwhile the over-excited posters peddling imminent UI memes are going to be disappointed. The combined nationalist-republican vote actually dropped this time. The Alliance party can provide a vision of how to deal with the NIP that doesn't revolve around border polls and UI happening any time soon. Hopefully a similar viable alternative to the constitutionally obsessed will emerge in Scotland soon. The CAQ in Quebec provides a blueprint for how to sideline them.

No, I think the ‘constitutionally obsessed’ will become greater in number.  And maybe even more obsessed!

[Jacksgranda]

7 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think many in the DUP were genuinely blindsided by the sea border. Even on here when I mentioned the issue of NI having a land border with the EU in the run up to the referedum vote some people seemed to think the Common Travel Area meant the EU's outer border somehow no longer matters. Alex Salmond had also downplayed the significance of these issues during the independence referendum after all.

The DUP were very foolish to support Brexit but like a lot of people probably assumed Remain would win so they could wave the UJ about to keep TUV in check and hadn't really thought too much about what came next. They should have tried to nudge the Tories towards the EEA and a soft Brexit if they wanted to avoid a sea customs border and are lucky the NIP is not linked to a far harder WTO type Brexit.

Nigel & co at UKIP were always going to sell them out as Little Englanders just like the Liberals did with the Home Rule Bill in 1912 and the Tories did later with Sunningdale and the Anglo-Irish Agreement so anybody who thought keeping NI out of the EU in customs terms was going to be a deal breaker for the Westminster elite in EU exit negotiations was dreaming in Technicolour. The NIP isn't going away so the DUP's going to find it difficult to cobble together a majority of pro-Union votes again because they don't have a clear vision of the way ahead.

Meanwhile the over-excited posters peddling imminent UI memes are going to be disappointed. The combined nationalist-republican vote actually dropped this time. The Alliance party can provide a vision of how to deal with the NIP that doesn't revolve around border polls and UI happening any time soon. Hopefully a similar viable alternative to the constitutionally obsessed will emerge in Scotland soon. The CAQ in Quebec provides a blueprint for how to sideline them.

SF have the same number of seats as they had in the last Assembly, the DUP have shot themselves in the foot by losing 3 seats and therefore the biggest party cup. One of the seats they lost went to Alex Easton who stood as an independent, so they might try to entice him back on board.

The combined nationalist/republican vote was 39.60 % (excluding Alliance - how do you split that up?). Even adding in PBP (and I think they are "other") takes it to 40.70. The unionists total 40.10% . Add in Alex Easton at say even only 1% gives 41.10. Again, this is excluding Alliance. Not much in it.

SF vote went up by 1.1% which doesn't tally with "SDLP lending them votes" scenario. Thank you very much Mr Eastwood is going to have to come up with a better excuse than that to explain away the disaster.

The middle ground "surge" is also non existent. Alliance vote went up by 4.50% which is more or less what the UUP and the SDLP combined lost. It looks like the middle ground may be coalescing round Alliance, and the UUP and the SDLP will continue to become even less relevant than they are at the moment.

The DUP vote went to the TUV.

The missing 37% of the electorate is the conundrum, figure out which way they might vote, and - more importantly - how to get them to vote, and you'd be on a winner.

The DUP have to try to get their votes back from the TUV (might not be too difficult seeing as the increase in vote got them null additional seats), SF will continue to chip away at the SDLP vote, and Alliance will be anxious to build on what they have, and continue to take votes off the two wee unionist and nationalist parties. As I said before, they don't seem to be taking them off the big two.

[LongTimeLurker]

10 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I really think their aim was a hard Brexit and a physical North/South border, ...

UI was pretty much dead as an issue in NI before Nigel got his referendum with numbers as low as 4% saying they wanted it immediately in polls rather than as a long term aspiration and the DUP had the Unionist vote stitched up giving them plenty of safe seats and careers for life. Check out some of Ian Jr's antics for how fond they could get of the gravy train.

[Jacksgranda]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I really think their aim was a hard Brexit and a physical North/South border, in the hope it would stop the  growth of North/South cooperation in its tracks, in fields like energy and water for example. In their minds they saw it as creeping unification and they'd rather f**k the business community and disrupt lives than risk that. Funny the way it turned out, the ERG and Boris really sold them a pig in a poke!

I don't think so. I don't think they knew what they wanted, quite frankly.

[williemillersmoustache]

6 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

I don't think so. I don't think they knew what they wanted, quite frankly.

I don't think WBs and the above points are necessarily antagonistic. The DUP being not very nice and not very bright (hoors (Alex Massie)) doesn't mean they didn't want to drive the North away from the EU and therefore the South. They weren't unique, far from it, in lacking a coherent goal or way to achieve it. But they knew what direction they wanted Brexit to go. 

  Nor does the fact they were up to no good and played a relatively very strong hand, very very badly mean they didn't get completely shafted. Because they did. And it was funny to watch if ultimately damaging for everyone. 

 

[Bialystock]

23 hours ago, HTG said:

This tweet from Murdo Fraser speaks volumes in terms of the thinking that underpins the political situation in Northern Ireland. Either Sinn Fein are now an accepted part of democracy functioning in Northern Ireland or they're not. If Murdo finds it so reprehensible that they be congratulated on their result, it's on the basis that he still sees them as Sinn Fein/IRA. If that's the case, why has the UK govt spent the last 24 years supporting the GFA - unless of course it's pat on the head patronising. If he's so dead set against people voting democratically in Northern Ireland, maybe he should start by protesting to his own party bosses instead of wanting to slaughter others. 

 

I'm surprised he managed to take time away from blagging a freebie to Seville to bother with the election results.

[Clown Job]

Being part of the EU really did paper over the cracks of partition

Maybe now someone in the UK Government will admit dividing up the island was not a good idea. 

Could you imagine if Scotland voted to leave the UK but they decided to keep somewhere like Aberdeenshire as part of the UK and stuff the area with unionists 

Course not because it’s a daft idea that wouldn’t work in the long or short term.

Same with NI 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

19 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

...Course not because it’s a daft idea that wouldn’t work in the long or short term.

Same with NI 

Northern Ireland was an idea that came from Sir Edward Carson, the Ulster Unionist Party and its voters rather than the Westminster elite. Not sure why you think it was such a bad idea in economic terms. NI did a lot better than the IFS/Eire/RoI did from partition up until EEC entry and the Troubles because it had access to the British economy.

The RoI economy benefited from the EEC/EU entry because it undid the damage caused by leaving the UK. Brexit is bad news economically for both the UK and RoI but not drastically so because the Brexit agreed on was a relatively soft one. It's a poor substitute for being in the EU but having a foot in both camps might actually turn out to be advantageous for NI in the years ahead. Time will tell basically. 

[HTG]

23 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

How would the BNP fit in on that? Being on the ballot paper isn't enough to be treated as a fully accepted part of mainstream politics. It's normal for a cordon sanitaire to be applied to extremist parties like the AfD in Germany or Golden Dawn in Greece.

When the GFA was signed it was the SDLP snd UUP that were expected to be in the drving seat not SF and the DUP. Coldly following protocol if voters in NI are misguided enough to vote SF in is one thing. Sending friendly tweets and that sort of headline is another and wasn't something the SNP needed to do. 

I'm sorry but SF in 2022 are very clearly a mainstream party in NI and your equivalence to the BNP is just not relatable. Are you saying you think SF need a cordon sanitaire because they'll campaign for a UI? Or because you think they're still terrorists at heart? Or something else?

[LongTimeLurker]

They'll deserve to be treated as a normal mainstream party when there is no more paramilitary "justice" being exacted in their electoral strongholds and they provide the PSNI with full unequivocal support to stamp that sort of criminal activity out once and for all. 

[Clown Job]

Just now, LongTimeLurker said:

They'll deserve to be treated as a normal mainstream party when there is no more paramilitary "justice" being exacted in their electoral strongholds and they provide the PSNI with full unequivocal support to stamp that sort of criminal activity out once and for all. 

That is pretty normal behaviour for the biggest parties within NI