🌎 🏆 World Cup Group Stage Draw 🌎 🏆

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, Pie Of The Month said:

 

It probably is right due to the fact the draw is done from pot 1 down to pot 4 so by the time the UEFA team is drawn from pot 4 there'll be at least 4 and possibly 5 groups with 2 European teams already in them where the UEFA team can't be drawn. The groups the UEFA team can't be drawn into is less likely to be the 1 with Qatar in it so increases the chances of ending up in that group.

I'm sure someone with a statistics background could work out exact odds but you always see when these types of draws are made there's a higher chance of certain teams ending up in certain groups. If you keep repeating that draw generator you'll probably find the UEFA team ends up with Brazil or Argentina more times than any pot 1 European team too.

Pots 1 and 2 have five European teams each. In the unlikely event that five of the groups contain two European teams each and the other three contain some combinations of Qatar/Argentina/Brazil and USA/Mexico/Uruguay, then it’s is guaranteed that Poland, Serbia and the UEFA playoff winner must (a) be drawn separately from one another, and (b) be drawn into the groups without UEFA representation.

 

This scenario has a 1.8% chance of happening in practice, and it would mean that we’d know exactly what group the playoff winner are in before they even draw pot 4, as there would be a group without the required UEFA team. 

 

 

The opposite scenario is that no groups are left without European representation after pot 1 and 2 (i.e., Two groups are all European, and the other six contain one European team and one of Qatar/Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay/USA/Mexico)

 

In this case, Poland and Serbia would be drawn into two of those six groups, leaving four possibilities for the playoff winner.

 

I think the number of possible groups playoff winner can be drawn into = 6 - the number of all-European groups after pot 2.

 

 

So if we have the maximum of 5 all European groups, there will only be 1 possibility for us. If there are 4, we’ll have 2, etc.

 

If I have time later I’ll run the generator 100 times to get an idea of the likelihood of each opponent 

[Spectre]

2 hours ago, Pie Of The Month said:

 

It probably is right due to the fact the draw is done from pot 1 down to pot 4 so by the time the UEFA team is drawn from pot 4 there'll be at least 4 and possibly 5 groups with 2 European teams already in them where the UEFA team can't be drawn. The groups the UEFA team can't be drawn into is less likely to be the 1 with Qatar in it so increases the chances of ending up in that group.

I'm sure someone with a statistics background could work out exact odds but you always see when these types of draws are made there's a higher chance of certain teams ending up in certain groups. If you keep repeating that draw generator you'll probably find the UEFA team ends up with Brazil or Argentina more times than any pot 1 European team too.

I've had a bit of a play about with this question, and its probably not fully right, and naturally depends on the many rules which I can't be bothered to look through and try to figure out the actual true answer to this. As far as I can tell from the draw simulator ,we have a fairly high chance to draw Qatar

using the 1 min and 2 max European team per group, there is a 25% (5/8 * 2/5)chance there will be 2 European teams are drawn with Qatar and therefore we can't actually be placed in that group. But there is also a 22.5% (3/8 * 3/5) chance that no European teams are drawn in with Qatar and as I understand it, we would have to be placed in that group. So already above the 12.5% chance you would have if it was entirely random. 

For the remaining 52.5% of situations where there is 1 European team, then it gets a little more complicated to work out because it depends on who is in the group with Qatar. If its a team from Africa or North America, then only 4 teams can be drawn with Qatar (no Asian and the respective continent including play offs). If we're in with Uruguay and Qatar then its only Saudi Arabia, Ecuador and the AFC/Conmebol playoff winner that can't get drawn which leaves 5 potential teams that can be drawn into Qatar's group. I can't quite be bothered to fully work out the likelihood so have just used 1/4 for the times where there is one European team in with Qatar which gives us a 35.625% chance to be in Qatar's group... or just a bit less, so 1/3 seems pretty much spot on to be honest. 

[Donathan]

From 10 simulations:

 

Pot 1: Qatar (5), Brazil (2), Argentina/Belgium/Portugal (1)

 

Pot 2: Mexico (4), USA (3), Uruguay (2), Germany (1)

 

Pot 3: Morocco (3), Serbia/Iran (2), Poland/Tunisia/Korea (1) 

[craigkillie]

Canada lost to Panama in their last game so that's Tunisia confirmed Pot 3 and Canada Pot 4.

[MarkoDevilovich]

12 hours ago, Donathan said:

From 10 simulations:

 

Pot 1: Qatar (5), Brazil (2), Argentina/Belgium/Portugal (1)

 

Pot 2: Mexico (4), USA (3), Uruguay (2), Germany (1)

 

Pot 3: Morocco (3), Serbia/Iran (2), Poland/Tunisia/Korea (1) 

Tbf Qatar/USA/Morocco would be an amazing opportunity to progress.

Beating Morocco would also finally rid me of my 30th birthday trauma

[VictorOnopko]

Based on FIFA 95 on the Sega Megadrive I'd say there is no chance Qatar should be in group 1.

[Highlandmagar]

Even if Scotland get passed Ukraine, wether by a free pass or actually beating them, we won't get passed Wales in Cardiff. In Glasgow maybe, but not there.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

29 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar Tier 3 said:

Even if Scotland get passed Ukraine, wether by a free pass or actually beating them, we won't get passed Wales in Cardiff. In Glasgow maybe, but not there.

Dude, they won’t like chat that around here.

Criticising Scotland or any Scotland players is forbidden on P&B.

[Blootoon87]

Even if Scotland get passed Ukraine, wether by a free pass or actually beating them, we won't get passed Wales in Cardiff. In Glasgow maybe, but not there.

We'll be underdogs but it's a bit defeatist to just say we won't get past them.

[Gordopolis]

Aye I fear playing W(B)ales in Cardiff, but no more than (actually probably less than) when we had to face Serbia in Belgrade.

[Donathan]

My crystal ball says

 

GROUP A:

1. QATAR
2. USA
3. SERBIA
4. ECUADOR

 

GROUP B

1. ENGLAND
2. URUGUAY
3. JAPAN
4. GHANA

 

GROUP C

1. ARGENTINA
2. MEXICO
3. SOUTH KOREA
4. WALES/SCOTLAND/UKRAINE

 

GROUP D

1. BELGIUM
2. GERMANY
3. TUNISIA
4. AUSTRALIA/PERU

 

GROUP E

1. PORTUGAL
2. CROATIA
3. MOROCCO
4. CANADA

 

GROUP F

1. BRAZIL
2. DENMARK
3. POLAND
4. NEW ZEALAND/COSTA RICA

 

GROUP G

1. SPAIN
2. SWITZERLAND
3. IRAN
4. CAMEROON

 

GROUP H

1. FRANCE
2. NETHERLANDS
3. SENEGAL
4. SAUDI ARABIA

[Highlandmagar]

3 hours ago, Gordopolis said:

Aye I fear playing W(B)ales in Cardiff, but no more than (actually probably less than) when we had to face Serbia in Belgrade.

I would actually fear Wales more with a vociferous crowd behind them rather than an empty stadium as in Belgrade.

[Dunning1874]

I would genuinely expect to win a group with Qatar, USA and Tunisia. We would of course be favourites to be eliminated with most draws there and there are some potentially horrendous groups, but even if we get a tough first seed we might still find a kind draw.

[Pie on a Roll]

 

57 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

I would genuinely expect to win a group with Qatar, USA and Tunisia. We would of course be favourites to be eliminated with most draws there and there are some potentially horrendous groups, but even if we get a tough first seed we might still find a kind draw.

I watched Mexico v USA last week in qualifying and both teams were completely honking. 

 

[Gordopolis]

I would actually fear Wales more with a vociferous crowd behind them rather than an empty stadium as in Belgrade.

Somehow I totally forgot the empty stadium!

[charger29]

Percentage chance of drawing other countries:




Edit: the percentages in the link above are innacurate.

[bdu98196]

12 hours ago, Highlandmagyar Tier 3 said:

I would actually fear Wales more with a vociferous crowd behind them rather than an empty stadium as in Belgrade.

Wales are a one man team. Removing him, the rest of the talent is no better than ours, infact on paper I'd suggest we have better options. Littered with Premiership players and some Championship. man by man, there's plenty for Scotland to be positive about - get the containment of Bale right and its closer than some on here think. Not sure why so many think Wales are something to fear

[Donathan]

9 minutes ago, bdu98196 said:

Wales are a one man team. Removing him, the rest of the talent is no better than ours, infact on paper I'd suggest we have better options. Littered with Premiership players and some Championship. man by man, there's plenty for Scotland to be positive about - get the containment of Bale right and its closer than some on here think. Not sure why so many think Wales are something to fear

I do agree that if Bale plays like he did last week, we are toast, however I don’t think Austria have the man power to take him out of the game like we do. I’d have Kieran Tierney just man marking him all day long. 

[Jambomo]

Wales are a tougher game than some fans will give them credit for because they do often pull big results out of the bag.

I also don’t think it’s a game we should think we can’t win though, because we’ve been doing the same ourselves recently, away from Hampden as well, and have a really good team. I actually don’t quite have the Cardiff fear factor as big a hurdle, loads of our players have played in massive games and hostile atmospheres, they should be able to deal with that aspect now pretty well.

I think we are pretty evenly matched and it’s a good 50/50.

[eez-eh]

44 minutes ago, charger29 said:

Percentage chance of drawing other countries:
 

whoever it is will surely have an uphill task to make it out of their group, being the only european nations to be drawn from pot 4

Whatever point they’re trying to make there I’m missing it. I’d far rather draw Mexico or the US than any of the UEFA teams in pot 2.