Cost of Living Crisis

[carpetmonster]

Sunlit uplands a go-go here. Well done Blighty. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

No, a recession is defined as reduced economic growth and has no causal relation to deflation, however, deflation may occur in conjunction with a recession. Recessions can also occur with rising prices, although that is a very unusual circumstance. Someone as pedantic as you should not have fallen into this misconception. One of these things is not like the other.

An entire paragraph of word salad, to conclude that err, recessions do in fact lead to falling prices.

And there is in fact an extremely straightforward causal mechanism. Businesses that want to pass on costs to customers with not much money will soon find themselves without customers and no business left. 

There will absolutely be falling prices for discretionary items as a result of this crunch. 

[Brother Blades]

Why are the media not concentrating on the nearly 50% fall in natural gas costs since the peak in August? It’s blatant & deliberate profiteering from producers, generators & suppliers. If we have a particularly harsh winter then I’d expect prices to rise but surely there’s a middle ground between passing all the cost on to the consumer when prices peak & not cutting costs when prices are depressed? It’s absolutely a grift & it appears nothing is being done about it. 
Yes, the publics ire should be aimed at the government but seems the boardrooms are getting off scot-free as far criticism is concerned. 

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

On energy bills, if I have this right, the energy price cap is rising, support will fall (the £400 payment is going away I think), with the resulting higher bills being met from incomes rising at well below inflation and being hit by higher taxes. 

It's all going very well, isn't it? 

That's the price that almost every European country is paying, for lolloping into an economic war without any credible assistance from its 'strategic partner' across the Atlantic - whose energy corporations are busy looting the wealth built up during the post-war economic miracle. 

This has been coming down the chute since March. 

[RH33]

On 15/11/2022 at 21:37, BILmac1967 said:

A big part of this argument is that people with dementia/ younger people with disabilities were looked after by their own families in the 1960's through the 70's but that changed as we became more materialistic, now we dump them on the NHS / "the state" in general.

The people I grew up with as "socialists" now also want to have savings as well as keeping property,

now we all rage when the gov. can't afford everything.

My 100 year old granny is in a care home. She was with my parents for 3 years but she now needs a level of care they simply couldn't provide safely. We have a much increased life expectancy and with all the best will in the world there comes a time when being at home isn't safe for some. Her house sale is paying for it.

People with disabilities and mental health institutions were dumped in asylums often in horrific conditions. 

 

[Brother Blades]

7 minutes ago, RH33 said:

My 100 year old granny is in a care home. She was with my parents for 3 years but she now needs a level of care they simply couldn't provide safely. We have a much increased life expectancy and with all the best will in the world there comes a time when being at home isn't safe for some. Her house sale is paying for it.

People with disabilities and mental health institutions were dumped in asylums often in horrific conditions. 

 

It’s genuinely frightening the prices charged at these places & I don’t think they should be in private hands. Some places are charging upwards of £1500 a week. It doesn’t take long for the sale of a house to be burned through. 
I know it’s not cheap to care for the elderly but some care homes are raking in huge profits compared to investment & outgoings. It’s not like residents are getting one on one nursing care & 5 star meals, the state should care for the elderly, those who can pay, should pay but there should be no private companies profiting from it. 

[TxRover]

57 minutes ago, virginton said:

An entire paragraph of word salad, to conclude that err, recessions do in fact lead to falling prices.

And there is in fact an extremely straightforward causal mechanism. Businesses that want to pass on costs to customers with not much money will soon find themselves without customers and no business left. 

There will absolutely be falling prices for discretionary items as a result of this crunch. 

There is no direct link between recession and deflation, sorry if your education posited otherwise, you are, as is often true, wrong. As for the suggestion discretionary prices WILL fall, there is no assurance of that, as someone of your supposed educational attainment should understand. As for your favorite phrase, word salad, well, bullshit.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The Times has basically published the full thing already. Energy price cap moving to £3k on average with the grants scrapped, so an average annual increase of £900 in April. This is what drives essentially all of the UK’s inflation, and we’re still doing very little to sort it. For context the average bill on the price cap in March 2022 was £1,277, and most people weren’t even on the price cap. £1,800 in a year.

Income tax rates all frozen for five years, so big chunks of those pay rises will be going straight back to HMRC. Council tax can be raised 5% rather than 3% as currently, which councils will almost definitely do as their budgets are getting cut.

That looks like about it for the ‘man in the street’. Lovely stuff.

Why won't these c***s tackle the energy producers?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

There is no direct link between recession and deflation, sorry if your education posited otherwise, you are, as is often true, wrong. As for the suggestion discretionary prices WILL fall, there is no assurance of that, as someone of your supposed educational attainment should understand. As for your favorite phrase, word salad, well, bullshit.

In a recession, you would usually expect a fall in the inflation rate due to lower demand and lower economic activity. The inflation rate fell in major recessions like 1929-32, 1981 and 1991.

However, it is not guaranteed inflation will fall in recession. For example, we could have a period of stagflation – rising inflation and falling output (eg after a rise in the price of oil – 1974 and 2008). Also, if countries respond to a fall in output by printing money, then this could lead to hyperinflation (eg Zimbabwe in 2008).

Stagflation is usually caused by cost-push factors - the fall in output is caused by fall in short run aggregate supply which leads to higher inflation.

[vikingTON]

30 minutes ago, TxRover said:

There is no direct link between recession and deflation, sorry if your education posited otherwise, you are, as is often true, wrong. As for the suggestion discretionary prices WILL fall, there is no assurance of that, as someone of your supposed educational attainment should understand. As for your favorite phrase, word salad, well, bullshit.

I didn't say deflation, I said that prices would fall. Which they will, for a vast number of everyday items - and at a far larger rate of price fall than if the economy was happily growing by 2% under identical background conditions. Indeed, the entire point of current fiscal policy from Bank of England interest rates to the government's austerity agenda is to bring inflation under control by massively constricting demand - that is a recession. The causal mechanism is absolutely clear. 

Your desperation to make up for your Fort William-esque sequence of Ls in the other forum is not going to work out well for you here. 

[RH33]

58 minutes ago, Brother Blades said:

It’s genuinely frightening the prices charged at these places & I don’t think they should be in private hands. Some places are charging upwards of £1500 a week. It doesn’t take long for the sale of a house to be burned through. 
I know it’s not cheap to care for the elderly but some care homes are raking in huge profits compared to investment & outgoings. It’s not like residents are getting one on one nursing care & 5 star meals, the state should care for the elderly, those who can pay, should pay but there should be no private companies profiting from it. 

Oh absolutely and most of them are tax dodging as well. I think Granny it over £4k a month. Her home is lovely, staff are bright and friendly when visit and spotlessly clean.

My point was more in the family used care for elderly and disabled not being accurate.

[MONKMAN]

I see buried in the footnote of the budget, was that banks will have their surcharge tax cut from 8% to 3%.  

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I didn't say deflation, I said that prices would fall. Which they will, for a vast number of everyday items - and at a far larger rate of price fall than if the economy was happily growing by 2% under identical background conditions. Indeed, the entire point of current fiscal policy from Bank of England interest rates to the government's austerity agenda is to bring inflation under control by massively constricting demand - that is a recession. The causal mechanism is absolutely clear. 
Your desperation to make up for your Fort William-esque sequence of Ls in the other forum is not going to work out well for you here. 

In any normal recession I'd agree with you - but given that the BoE have already said that the current inflationary spiral is due to supply side issues then there is the danger of stagflation if those supply side issues aren't dealt with.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

They are.
To the tune of £14 billion.
UK hits power firms with windfall tax, hikes oil company levy | Reuters

That's not tackling the fundamental issue though.

[Billy Jean King]

Erm, yes

1.5% rise in 4 months = flat [emoji28]

[Brother Blades]

42 minutes ago, virginton said:

I didn't say deflation, I said that prices would fall. Which they will, for a vast number of everyday items - and at a far larger rate of price fall than if the economy was happily growing by 2% under identical background conditions. Indeed, the entire point of current fiscal policy from Bank of England interest rates to the government's austerity agenda is to bring inflation under control by massively constricting demand - that is a recession. The causal mechanism is absolutely clear. 

Your desperation to make up for your Fort William-esque sequence of Ls in the other forum is not going to work out well for you here. 

How the f**k can the BoE bring inflation under control when the government are acting in the entirely opposite direction by increasing energy costs? The largest driver of current inflation? They can increase base interest rates, that may help, but only slightly. The end result is that “the man on the street” suffers.

Tory economic policy is a disgrace, Brexit is a disaster, all that is happening is the money is being diverted to exactly where it shouldn’t be, the Tories, as always are practising trickle up economics. 
Demand dropping will be driven by people unable to afford basic needs like food & heat, that is no way to get inflation under control. 

[Brother Blades]

14 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

They are.

To the tune of £14 billion.

UK hits power firms with windfall tax, hikes oil company levy | Reuters

Bullshit! It’s all accounted out by investment write offs. Tax them heavily. The investment doesn’t actually exist. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I didn't say it was.
I'm just pointing out that they are "tackling them".
People have been screaming for windfall taxes.
They introduced them.
Now people are complaining that the fundamental issue hasn't been resolved.
It's as though, as I said earlier, that some people are just compelled to see the negative in everything for reasons best known to themselves.
As far as tackling the fundamental problem is concerned, there's only two solutions:
1) Cut your own usage to limit your personal financial exposure. Pretty much everyone can do that.
2) Move to renewables.
I can't see any other alternative.
Can you?

Decouple gas and electricity pricing.

[Brother Blades]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Then cut your usage to reduce the amount you need to pay them.

I’ve cut my usage to the bare minimum, I’ve had my heating on three times this winter, in one room! I do a clothing wash twice a week, one light, one dark. I use an air fryer rather than the oven, I make many meals in advance in slow cooker & freeze them, tonight I’ll get home, I’ll prepare my dinner & go straight to bed or bring my duvet into my living room if I prefer to watch (broadcast) tv, rather than going to bed & reading a book. Don’t be such a sanctimonious c**t! What I’ve described is happening everywhere. 

[Todd_is_God]

21 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1.5% rise in 4 months = flat

You may wish to read better. I said mostly flat which, compared to 1% month on month increases when the war kicked off, it absolutely is.

If you think Inflation come April isn't going to begin falling off a cliff then I would love to know why