FIRE Discussion and Resources

[DA Baracus]

Lots of assumptions about kids here.

[vikingTON]

6 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Old people are pretty much the most important electoral group in any country which is probably why it hasn't happened yet.

There's also no inherent reason why either of those two conditions would change though. 

[Satoshi]

8 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

Lots of assumptions about kids here.

I'm banking on mine discovering the new unboxing.

8 minutes ago, virginton said:

There's also no inherent reason why either of those two conditions would change though. 

Possibly not, but young people have been getting a raw deal for decades and it's only getting worse. The concentration of wealth in older people (usually through inflated house prices) is obscene and the disparity many multitudes higher than it was in, say, the 70 or 80s when those same old people were young. Eventually, you would expect (or hope) young people would wake up and challenge this - the occupy movement may perhaps end up being the vanguard of this.

In poorer countries, when people can't afford a bread and fuel (a situation that is 100% coming to many countries soon) violent revolution seems more likely. 

Going off topic, but I think the movement of political discourse away from economics and inequality to nonsense like culture wars is a deliberate move, thought out in some American conservative think tank 20 years ago. It's a distraction tactic. And tbf it is working brillaintly. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Satoshi

[scottsdad]

11 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I make a few posts on this thread and all of a sudden I'm getting adverts everywhere for Fire Retardant Products and Services.

Apparently I'm in the market for fire blankets and smoke detectors. 

I'm getting adverts for bras at the moment. Make of that what you will. 

[Hillonearth]

21 hours ago, Shandon Par said:

Simple advice from a 40 something is that the peak time to be a human is probably 17-40. If you spend these years not going out (when you could afford to), not travelling, and not throwing yourself into what life has to offer then you’re missing out. These experiences simply are not the same as an older person. 
 

I could probably be sitting as a millionaire but I’d still be 44. My muscles would still be on their way out. I’d still be going grey, I’d still be lacking the energy I had even 10 years ago. 
 

Depriving yourself on the basis that things will be better when.. is a real recipe for mental anguish. Sorry to use a boxing analogy but so often you hear fighters who achieve their goal yet inside feel flat and empty and can’t understand why they feel flat. That maybe shows how today is as important as tomorrow. All the money and freedom in the world doesn’t make up for things like loss and heartbreak.

There is a cultishness to this FIRE as you’re following a path that can lead to you missing out on so much of what life has to offer. Crack on by all means but you may hit a point where you realised you’ve wasted the best years of your life.

I'd agree - it's maybe not cultish as such but it certainly seems to be one of those things that people become a bit evangelical about, maybe similar to the way people embrace something like veganism and in at least some cases talk about little else thenceforth.

If a large proportion of your focus is on saving money then fair play, but I think it's safe to say you shouldn't expect people you meet to be enthralled at your stories of how you do it.

 

[SuperSaints1877]

13 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I make a few posts on this thread and all of a sudden I'm getting adverts everywhere for Fire Retardant Products and Services.

Apparently I'm in the market for fire blankets and smoke detectors. 

Given your panic buying toilet roll at the start of the pandemic perhaps that’s something you have needed for a while.

+ ️ =  

[beefybake]

2 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Yeah, it's interesting that lots of people who do retire early quite quickly go into some other line of work (but one at a style and pace they enjoy).

It's the same reason some lottery winners stay in work, some people enjoy it or like having the structure in place.

Some people will work till they drop.

And all are perfeclty fine, with FIRE you can make your choice earlier, but no choice at that point is right or wrong.

The school fees is an interesting one too, my personal choice would always be staying by the beach somewhere warm and cheap but this doesn't usually align with great schooling. I do hope there will be a democratisation in education with everyone getting access to top notch video link teaching, but that will probably come too late and I'll have to bite the bullet on private school or staying near a good public school (the latter can be more expensive!).

The other side of FIRE that I've not touched on is that saving for your retirement may not be totally necessary now, but it's entirely feasible that state support for the elderly either weakens or disappears in our lifetime. If you are solely, or predominantly, relying on a state pension you run the risk of penury, staying with your kids and selling your cam videos of oldonlyfans (you may choose to do the last one anyway). Hope it doesn't come to fruition, but it's a risk.

Old people are pretty much the most important electoral group in any country which is probably why it hasn't happened yet.

I don't recall any of that being said by respected advocates of either financial independence, or just plain saving/investing more.

Only by those trying scare tactics, or have some underlying grudge against older people.

The ones I respect are those who come up with practical actions that one can do, backed up with evidence that these actions work. .

[beefybake]

2 hours ago, Satoshi said:

I'm banking on mine discovering the new unboxing.

Possibly not, but young people have been getting a raw deal for decades and it's only getting worse. The concentration of wealth in older people (usually through inflated house prices) is obscene and the disparity many multitudes higher than it was in, say, the 70 or 80s when those same old people were young. Eventually, you would expect (or hope) young people would wake up and challenge this - the occupy movement may perhaps end up being the vanguard of this.

In poorer countries, when people can't afford a bread and fuel (a situation that is 100% coming to many countries soon) violent revolution seems more likely. 

Going off topic, but I think the movement of political discourse away from economics and inequality to nonsense like culture wars is a deliberate move, thought out in some American conservative think tank 20 years ago. It's a distraction tactic. And tbf it is working brillaintly. 

Interesting to read that you have so many opinions about life, the universe, and everything.

But rather boring, tbh.

Massive generalisations, regurgitation of stereotypes.......

[craigkillie]

Imagine wanting your kids to have their education by "top notch video link" rather than, you know, seeing other children.

[SuperSaints1877]

11 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Imagine wanting your kids to have their education by "top notch video link" rather than, you know, seeing other children.
 

I wanted it for my kids during school covid lockdowns but because we live in a deprived area no such teaching took place by their school.

Other schools in Scotland did however make the effort - mostly well off neighbourhoods or teachers that actually cared.

I’d have settled for any kind of video teaching. I really felt sorry for my kids and their fellow pupils who were studying for Highers and National 5s at the time. 

I think we will start to see education evolve over time as a result of video learning to allow pupils to study subjects that their school may not be able to deliver, but can be provided remotely.

[Satoshi]

1 hour ago, beefybake said:

I don't recall any of that being said by respected advocates of either financial independence, or just plain saving/investing more.

Only by those trying scare tactics, or have some underlying grudge against older people.

The ones I respect are those who come up with practical actions that one can do, backed up with evidence that these actions work. .

It's neither scare tactics, nor a grudge against older people.

Of course policies can change in future, and it's seems very likely the state pension age will keep increasing as lifespans increase, and it's not outwith the bounds of possibility it gets less generous (or at least loses the triple lock protection).

So those not saving now shouldn't necessarily bank on being able to retire at 68, it may well be later than that.

I'm certainly not a respected advocate of anything though, just some random guy on the internet.

1 hour ago, beefybake said:

Interesting to read that you have so many opinions about life, the universe, and everything.

But rather boring, tbh.

Massive generalisations, regurgitation of stereotypes.......

Better to say something boring than nothing at all I guess.

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

Imagine wanting your kids to have their education by "top notch video link" rather than, you know, seeing other children.
 

Not really what I was saying tbh, the top notch video link is more towards the democratisation of education around the world. Currently, your life chances are to a large extent dictated by where you happen to be born. The next James Watson is as likely to be born in Botswana as Chicago but if its the former the world is almost certain to lose out on their genius. The only way to move towards equity is the democractisation of education, whatever form that takes. Currently, it's near impossible for those born in poorer countries to reach anywhere close to their full potential and we all suffer as a result. 

It wasn't related to socialisation which of course children need no matter what form of education they participate in.

But it's not really related to the thread. If you're flexible on where you live FIRE is a lot easier to achieve (obviously a financial independence number is far lower in Vietnam than it is in London). This does present other challenges of course though, including education. 

[welshbairn]

It would be a bit of a shame if you spend your life scrimping and saving and postponing indulgences in the hope of a prosperous early retirement, and the whole financial system goes tits up, Northern Bank style, and you end up having to sweep up at B&Q till you're 90.

[strichener]

On 15/03/2022 at 16:19, Thorongil said:

I’m 42 now and intend to be done by 52 to the point that any work is optional and will only be easy and stress free. 

We built our house 6 years ago. We’re overpaying our mortgage and  aggressively paying off all consumer debt. Debt will all be gone this financial year.

investing this year also in solar electricity and air source heating for our home and fully expecting that in 10 years we will have property and pension assets of circa £1m between us and expecting that cost of living will be low as no more mortgage, no more mortgage insurances, no heating or electricity bills, no nursery fees, no childcare costs of any kind. 
 

So it will be 3 years of living on savings as can’t access pensions till 55, though my wife will be 55 when I’m 52 so that will help also. 

Then coast for a few years, then eventually sell up, downsize and live off the proceeds. 

There’s one potential jewel in the crown as well, we have a building plot near to Stornoway so we could build on that and monetise it. AirBNB for 10 years would pay for it, then sell it. 

I work in financial services (kind of) and I don’t personally understand or trust funds as such. Just seems like gambling to me.

If you are 42 just now you won't be accessing your pension at 55 (not without punitive tax charges).  The age for pension freedoms is rising to 57 in 2028 which will affect both you and your wife.

[Lex]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It would be a bit of a shame if you spend your life scrimping and saving and postponing indulgences in the hope of a prosperous early retirement, and the whole financial system goes tits up, Northern Bank style, and you end up having to sweep up at B&Q till you're 90.

Well that did happen in 2008, the lows were in 2009 then it went on a record bull run for about 11 years till 2020. Only way you lost money is if you panicked and sold - which many did.

That's the S&P 500 which is as good a measure of global market sentiment as any. There's the financial crash, the 9/11 dip is in there, the tech bubble, COVID is the big dunk around 2020 and the latest crash is because of Mad Vlad's war.  As you can see the historic long term trend has always been up, even with all these unforeseen, catastrophic events of the last 50+ years. 

There's a lot of focus on cutting back the lattes etc and living like a hermit without any indulgences, some do that, most don't. The two biggest expense of most western households are accommodation and transport. Living in a cheaper house and driving a cheaper car - or even better no car at all and using public transport - are the biggest wins for most people. If anyone decides to do that and then saves/invests the difference they will be well on their way, and they can keep drinking lattes and getting the rounds in.

[The_Kincardine]

On 16/03/2022 at 14:14, Shandon Par said:

Simple advice from a 40 something is that the peak time to be a human is probably 17-40. If you spend these years not going out (when you could afford to), not travelling, and not throwing yourself into what life has to offer then you’re missing out. These experiences simply are not the same as an older person. 

Simple advice from a twice-divorced 60-something who had a brilliant trip to central Europe and Turkey in Feb and who plans to do a TEFL trip to Cebu in May is that this is utter bollocks.  Seriously silly stuff from you.

If you think life peaks at 40 then you have f**k all to do with the next 40 years and how pathetic is that?

Aged 40 I was a first-time father with all the stresses that entails.  Aged 62 I have 3 adult kids who are absolutely brilliant and a daily joy.

Life is hugely better in my 60's than it ever was in my 40's - as is my social life.

[invergowrie arab]

Yous are all overthinking it. 

[coprolite]

15 minutes ago, Lex said:

Well that did happen in 2008, the lows were in 2009 then it went on a record bull run for about 11 years till 2020. Only way you lost money is if you panicked and sold - which many did.

That's the S&P 500 which is as good a measure of global market sentiment as any. There's the financial crash, the 9/11 dip is in there, the tech bubble, COVID is the big dunk around 2020 and the latest crash is because of Mad Vlad's war.  As you can see the historic long term trend has always been up, even with all these unforeseen, catastrophic events of the last 50+ years. 

There's a lot of focus on cutting back the lattes etc and living like a hermit without any indulgences, some do that, most don't. The two biggest expense of most western households are accommodation and transport. Living in a cheaper house and driving a cheaper car - or even better no car at all and using public transport - are the biggest wins for most people. If anyone decides to do that and then saves/invests the difference they will be well on their way, and they can keep drinking lattes and getting the rounds in.

If you live in a cheaper, bought, house you have less returns on your property.

If you're sure that the stock market will continue to outperform real estate that makes sense but putting all your eggs in the stocks basket seems risky, no? 

If you have your own stocks directly you can hold your nerve and not sell. But that graph suggests returns from trackers, not individual stocks, which get there value from trading. I'd suggest that if you'd bought £1000 of each stock in the 500 at 1982 you'd have lost, after inflation, by now. If you have a tracker you are more diversified but at greater risk of the fund manager folding with your cash in a crash. 

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

27 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Simple advice from a twice-divorced 60-something who had a brilliant trip to central Europe and Turkey in Feb and who plans to do a TEFL trip to Cebu in May is that this is utter bollocks.  Seriously silly stuff from you.

If you think life peaks at 40 then you have f**k all to do with the next 40 years and how pathetic is that?

Aged 40 I was a first-time father with all the stresses that entails.  Aged 62 I have 3 adult kids who are absolutely brilliant and a daily joy.

Life is hugely better in my 60's than it ever was in my 40's - as is my social life.

I'm not an old guy but that's nice advice. 

[Lex]

11 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

This falls into the category of "it's always risen so it always will rise" logical fallacy. It's also the "hindsight" fallacy. In 2008, there was no guarantee that things would have recovered any time soon. You're also making the mistake of looking at averages. Many individual stocks crashed and burned without recovering. Some people lost everything in 2008 and didn't get it back again.

Finally, the market only needs to dip significantly around the time you need to withdraw your investments or start living off the interest.

So that's 5 major flaws in your thinking in one post. Congratulations. That has to be a new record.

You're trying to paint investment as relatively risk-free.

You're wrong to do so.

That's the whole point, you never invest in individual stocks, you invest in the averages. You live off 4% off your investments, average historic returns is around 8% so if the average returns continue your investments will grow even when you are withdrawing from them.  If the averages fall in half your investments will stay the same.  Investment returns were about 18% in 2021.

Investing is not risk free and i never said it was - absolutely nothing is risk free. What we can say with certainty is anyone who has invested in low cost tracker funds has made money over the long term going back over 50 years. If this ever stops being true we will all be in big trouble, that probably means WW3 actually has happened.

[Left Back]

13 minutes ago, coprolite said:

If you live in a cheaper, bought, house you have less returns on your property.

If you're sure that the stock market will continue to outperform real estate that makes sense but putting all your eggs in the stocks basket seems risky, no? 

If you have your own stocks directly you can hold your nerve and not sell. But that graph suggests returns from trackers, not individual stocks, which get there value from trading. I'd suggest that if you'd bought £1000 of each stock in the 500 at 1982 you'd have lost, after inflation, by now. If you have a tracker you are more diversified but at greater risk of the fund manager folding with your cash in a crash. 

Depending who you ask and what you're investing for the stock market won't necessarily outperform real estate.

https://www.moneynest.co.uk/property-vs-shares/

There are no definitive answers here to what people with disposable income should be investing in.  There are also no guarantees.