The Run-in

[Trogdor]

19 minutes ago, die hard doonhamer said:

I worked it all out with pen and paper. The 3 team mini league, with the 2 1-0 wins for queens, would be:

 

excuse the awful handwriting!

You're handwriting is fine but the content makes for bad viewing. Sometimes I feel like I live in a parallel universe where everything goes wrong. If the above transpires it will be conclusive proof of that theory.

[Cardle is Magic]

1 hour ago, die hard doonhamer said:

I worked it all out with pen and paper. The 3 team mini league, with the 2 1-0 wins for queens, would be:

 

excuse the awful handwriting!

Could be a nervy end to the season!

Not sure we needed the shadow of your penis though tbf.

[Stellaboz]

8 hours ago, Cardle is Magic said:

The results definitely aren't, although all four games ending 1-0 is unlikely.

Bet 365 is giving me 62/1 just for those exact results this weekend.

Worth a pound or two.

[Hursty]

22 hours ago, Trogdor said:

You're handwriting is fine but the content makes for bad viewing. Sometimes I feel like I live in a parallel universe where everything goes wrong. If the above transpires it will be conclusive proof of that theory.

Ayr have managed 2 wins from 11 games against the other 3 teams who could still technically finish in the bottom two.  That's dreadful.  

[DiegoDiego]

I worked it all out with pen and paper.

Said the constipated mathematician.

[Fuctifano]

Think I've managed to pochle the formula to account for Dunfermline winning on head to head - also the model doesn't account for >4 goal wins so Thistle show as 100% in which isn't fully accurate therefore I've amended it. 

[Stellaboz]

On 20/04/2022 at 08:05, Stellaboz said:

Worth a pound or two.

And if I had WiFi and not been preoccupied I'd have cashed out before the equaliser. Scunnered!

[Cardle is Magic]

2 hours ago, Stellaboz said:

And if I had WiFi and not been preoccupied I'd have cashed out before the equaliser. Scunnered!

I was thinking of you when both games were at 1-0. Sare yin that you didn't get to cash out.

[Cardle is Magic]

So, title wrapped up, Arbroath confirmed in 2nd and, barring something very strange indeed, it'll be Thistle vs Inverness in the QF.

Queen of the South's nine season stay in the second tier also comes to an end after failing to beat Ayr United.

Think I've got a hang of scenarios on Friday night but please let me know if I've missed something.

On the final day, Ayr will be safe if:

- They win

- They draw and Pars fail to win

- They lose and Pars lose

- They lose by one goal, Pars draw but Ayr end up with a better goals scored record; (e.g Ayr 0-1 Thistle, Pars 0-0 Queens)

Pars, on the other hand, will be safe if:

- They win and Ayr fail to win

- They draw and Ayr lose by two goals or more

- They draw, Ayr lose by one goal but Pars end up with a better goals scored record (e.g Ayr 0-1 Thistle, Pars 2-2 Queens)

- They draw, Ayr lose by one goal and Pars finish 8th on H2H record (e.g Ayr 0-1 Thistle, Pars 1-1 Queens)

[TxRover]

Looks about right. After the tight race at the top and bottom for almost all season, now the only questions are 4-5, 6-7, and 8-9.

4-5 looks almost locked, with Raith, playing Killie, needing a miracle to catch Partick.

6-7 is tough because both play teams with no incentive to compete, so the Accies must be favored over Morton while ICT and the Lichties probably use the games to get some time for various players.

8-9 is the interesting one. Ayr have the more difficult match, with Partick needing at least a draw to be assured of fourth, and otherwise needing to not lose big. The Pars have a match against Queens where only the Pars “care” about a result…and that can cause strange things. Queens might like nothing better than to drag the Pars down with them, so who knows.

[Guest Flash]

32 minutes ago, Cardle is Magic said:

So, title wrapped up, Arbroath confirmed in 2nd and, barring something very strange indeed, it'll be Thistle vs Inverness in the QF.

Queen of the South's nine season stay in the second tier also comes to an end after failing to beat Ayr United.

Think I've got a hang of scenarios on Friday night but please let me know if I've missed something.

On the final day, Ayr will be safe if:

- They win

- They draw and Pars fail to win

- They lose and Pars lose

- They lose by one goal, Pars draw but Ayr end up with a better goals scored record; (e.g Ayr 0-1 Thistle, Pars 0-0 Queens)

Pars, on the other hand, will be safe if:

- They win and Ayr fail to win

- They draw and Ayr lose by two goals or more

- They draw, Ayr lose by one goal but Pars end up with a better goals scored record (e.g Ayr 0-1 Thistle, Pars 2-2 Queens)

- They draw, Ayr lose by one goal and Pars finish 8th on H2H record (e.g Ayr 0-1 Thistle, Pars 1-1 Queens)

To simplify, I’ve ruled out the ones that won’t happen.

[Cardle is Magic]

Thistle do not need a point. They need to avoid getting absolutely battered.

[Thereisalight..]

6 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Looks about right. After the tight race at the top and bottom for almost all season, now the only questions are 4-5, 6-7, and 8-9.

4-5 looks almost locked, with Raith, playing Killie, needing a miracle to catch Partick.

6-7 is tough because both play teams with no incentive to compete, so the Accies must be favored over Morton while ICT and the Lichties probably use the games to get some time for various players.

8-9 is the interesting one. Ayr have the more difficult match, with Partick needing at least a draw to be assured of fourth, and otherwise needing to not lose big. The Pars have a match against Queens where only the Pars “care” about a result…and that can cause strange things. Queens might like nothing better than to drag the Pars down with them, so who knows.

Partick are guaranteed a play off place already. There would need to be an 8 goal swing for them to miss out and that's not happening. 

Thankfully today Partick got the job done and McCall has stated he'll rest a few players on Fri. 

[TxRover]

20 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Partick are guaranteed a play off place already. There would need to be an 8 goal swing for them to miss out and that's not happening. 

Thankfully today Partick got the job done and McCall has stated he'll rest a few players on Fri. 

How are they guaranteed a spot when they can miss with an 8 goal swing? They are almost locked…almost.

[Cardle is Magic]

32 minutes ago, TxRover said:

How are they guaranteed a spot when they can miss with an 8 goal swing? They are almost locked…almost.

Do you realise how unlikely a Rovers win, Thistle loss and 8-goal swing is?

Thistle missing out is probably a 1 in 1000 chance.

[craigkillie]

Thistle do not need a point. They need to avoid getting absolutely battered.

Or to avoid our team going on a week long bender and losing 7-0, which won't happen. Thistle have it in the bag now, would expect them to rest a few for the play-offs.

[Smokerson]

Ayr will win, Dunfermline in play offs v Queens Park

[stevoraith]

9 hours ago, Cardle is Magic said:

Do you realise how unlikely a Rovers win, Thistle loss and 8-goal swing is?

Thistle missing out is probably a 1 in 1000 chance.

You're right, but the point our Texan friend was making is that Thistle are not guaranteed to be in the play-offs, as was mentioned by the previous poster.

However unlikely it is (and your 1 in 1000 seems about right) it is still mathematically possible for Raith to get 4th place.  But aye, it's never going to happen.

[Raithie]

9 hours ago, Cardle is Magic said:

Do you realise how unlikely a Rovers win, Thistle loss and 8-goal swing is?

Thistle missing out is probably a 1 in 1000 chance.

Unfortunately Tx is one of those pedantic 'you say black I'll say white' anorak types. 

[San Starko Rover]

Whoever goes into the playoffs in 9th really needs to win them, League 1 could be a nightmare to get out of next season. Falkirk have to eventually get it right (maybe) Queens will be desperate to bounce back, Queens Park have some cash to burn from Hampden, might even have a ground (maybe) and Kelty aren’t afraid to throw money about so likely to be up there like Cove were.