parsforlife Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said: Quick question @craigkilliewill probably know If we draw tomorrow but win at rugby park next weekend say 1-0 Then us and Killie be equal on everything? Who would be top? Does it go to head to head Also I’m fully expecting us to make a c**t of this but I’m genuinely pinching myself that I’m talking about this stuff @craigkilliehas already confirmed this for me in for the diddy battle to avoid 9th. It goes to H2H points first goals second, So in your scenario you only need to match the result exactly on final day to get the title 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted April 15, 2022 Share Posted April 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, parsforlife said: @craigkilliehas already confirmed this for me in for the diddy battle to avoid 9th. It goes to H2H points first goals second, So in your scenario you only need to match the result exactly on final day to get the title Thanks mate and also Jesus Christ Anything but a defeat tomorrow and next Friday would be the best and most exciting day of my football supporting life I just know we will lose tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Didn't realise Queens had a game in hand so they're not out of it just yet. Need to win all three games to have any chance of staying up Ayr and Dunfermline can't drop any points their last two games to catch Morton, who only need a point should they do that. Both Ayr and Dunfermline play Partick and Queens 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19QOS19 Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Didn't realise Queens had a game in hand so they're not out of it just yet. [emoji38] 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 (edited) Well done Dunfermline and Ayr, you've broken the model When teams finish level on GD AND GF it doesn't go to head to head but instead the slightly more unfair (depending on your bias) alphabetical order, so I'd probably just call it 50-50 rather than slightly in favour of Ayr. 95% seems huge for us but we are 3 points plus an unrealistic GD swing ahead with 2 games to go and Raith have two games against teams ranked above them, whereas we have a home game against a team we're ranked ahead of by a bawhair and another against a team ranked lower than us. Edited April 16, 2022 by Fuctifano 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 So it’s basically 50/50 if we ignore you’re broken model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Fuctifano said: Well done Dunfermline and Ayr, you've broken the model When teams finish level on GD AND GF it doesn't go to head to head but instead the slightly more unfair (depending on your bias) alphabetical order, so I'd probably just call it 50-50 rather than slightly in favour of Ayr. 95% seems huge for us but we are 3 points plus an unrealistic GD swing ahead with 2 games to go and Raith have two games against teams ranked above them, whereas we have a home game against a team we're ranked ahead of by a bawhair and another against a team ranked lower than us. We're still hanging in there. Credit where it's due. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevoraith Posted April 16, 2022 Share Posted April 16, 2022 Well done Dunfermline and Ayr, you've broken the model [emoji23] When teams finish level on GD AND GF it doesn't go to head to head but instead the slightly more unfair (depending on your bias) alphabetical order, so I'd probably just call it 50-50 rather than slightly in favour of Ayr. 95% seems huge for us but we are 3 points plus an unrealistic GD swing ahead with 2 games to go and Raith have two games against teams ranked above them, whereas we have a home game against a team we're ranked ahead of by a bawhair and another against a team ranked lower than us. It feels really wrong to contradict someone who has created such an exceptional model in excel, but when it became clear that Dunfermline and Ayr had identical records they looked into it on Sportsound and confirmed that if it’s like that at the end of the season then it will be decided by head-to-head. Dunfermline are ahead in that measure since they have two wins and a draw. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Starko Rover Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 16 hours ago, Fuctifano said: Well done Dunfermline and Ayr, you've broken the model When teams finish level on GD AND GF it doesn't go to head to head but instead the slightly more unfair (depending on your bias) alphabetical order, so I'd probably just call it 50-50 rather than slightly in favour of Ayr. 95% seems huge for us but we are 3 points plus an unrealistic GD swing ahead with 2 games to go and Raith have two games against teams ranked above them, whereas we have a home game against a team we're ranked ahead of by a bawhair and another against a team ranked lower than us. Pretty sure Accies are below us (for now). We play Accies away on Saturday and finish with Kilmarnock at home. To jump Partick we’d need 4 points coupled with you losing both or six points with you not winning either game. Unlikely but our game against Kilmarnock could see them not interested if they beat Arbroath on Saturday so that could make it less predictable. I really can’t see us jumping Partick and Accies getting 5th is a big ask 3rd - 5th will likely stay as is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) 26 minutes ago, San Starko Rover said: Pretty sure Accies are below us (for now). We play Accies away on Saturday and finish with Kilmarnock at home. To jump Partick we’d need 4 points coupled with you losing both or six points with you not winning either game. Unlikely but our game against Kilmarnock could see them not interested if they beat Arbroath on Saturday so that could make it less predictable. I really can’t see us jumping Partick and Accies getting 5th is a big ask 3rd - 5th will likely stay as is. Each team has a ranking (or Elo rating if you need specifics) in the model which varies over the season weighted on recent form, so Hamilton are ranked above Raith (and Thistle) at the moment. This in turn feeds into the win / draw / loss expectations for each game so -according to the model- Raith are underdogs for their last two games and Thistle will be very slight favourites in both. I can't see us getting a point at all so really comes down to whether Raith can get 4+, if Kilmarnock win on Friday and have the cigars out on the last day - which the model can't account for- it probably spells trouble for us. Edited April 17, 2022 by Fuctifano 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stan3600 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Pretty sure Accies are below us (for now). We play Accies away on Saturday and finish with Kilmarnock at home. To jump Partick we’d need 4 points coupled with you losing both or six points with you not winning either game. Unlikely but our game against Kilmarnock could see them not interested if they beat Arbroath on Saturday so that could make it less predictable. I really can’t see us jumping Partick and Accies getting 5th is a big ask 3rd - 5th will likely stay as is. Kilmarnock will not beat Arbroath on Saturday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxo Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Kilmarnock actually won't beat Arbroath on Saturday though... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiepiemuncher Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 It’s Friday you know. We still won’t beat them anyhow. Draw if anything 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ro Sham Bo Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 A draw will be enough for Kilmarnock considering their last much is away to us. There's absolutely no chance we'll be taking anything from that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Our away record is abysmal, if we draw with Arbroath I'll be fearing the worst regardless of Raith's form and mindset. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardle is Magic Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 (edited) Brilliant end to the title race. Think Killie will get the job done on Friday night but what a dog's dinner they've made of it. Brilliant season from Arbroath and hopefully they get - at least - a play-off final. Thistle should still still nab 4th but both Pars and Ayr have lots to play for. Think the GD advantage is key, though. Queens are surely dead and buried and Morton are all but safe. Pars and Ayr essentially in a dead heat with the same opponents over the final two games. Squeaky-bum time! L1 could be chaos next season btw. You could Falkirk, Kelty, Pars/Ayr, Queens, Airdrie and QP all chucking money at it. Edited April 18, 2022 by Cardle is Magic 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Cardle is Magic said: Brilliant end to the title race. Think Killie will get the job done on Friday night but what a dog's dinner they've made of it. Brilliant season from Arbroath and hopefully they get - at least - a play-off final. Thistle should still still nab 4th but both Pars and Ayr have lots to play for. Think the GD advantage is key, though. Queens are surely dead and buried and Morton are all but safe. Pars and Ayr essentially in a dead heat with the same opponents over the final two games. Squeaky-bum time! L1 could be chaos next season btw. You could Falkirk, Kelty, Pars/Ayr, Queens, Airdrie and QP all chucking money at it. Always said you’ll stay up and I still believe it Also on the second part, the chucking money at it, chucking money at what? Looking at it from our point of view and trying to see potential signings out there and it’s proper slim pickings especially part time wise 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardle is Magic Posted April 18, 2022 Author Share Posted April 18, 2022 1 hour ago, 1320Lichtie said: Always said you’ll stay up and I still believe it Also on the second part, the chucking money at it, chucking money at what? Looking at it from our point of view and trying to see potential signings out there and it’s proper slim pickings especially part time wise It's been slim pickings in Scottish football for a long time but that's not stopped teams. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19QOS19 Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 Brilliant end to the title race. Think Killie will get the job done on Friday night but what a dog's dinner they've made of it. Brilliant season from Arbroath and hopefully they get - at least - a play-off final. Thistle should still still nab 4th but both Pars and Ayr have lots to play for. Think the GD advantage is key, though. Queens are surely dead and buried and Morton are all but safe. Pars and Ayr essentially in a dead heat with the same opponents over the final two games. Squeaky-bum time! L1 could be chaos next season btw. You could Falkirk, Kelty, Pars/Ayr, Queens, Airdrie and QP all chucking money at it.Perhaps a defeatist attitude but I'd rather spend the year going for the playoffs and potentially missing out on promotion than chuck money at it for automatic promotion. The reality is we won't be able to compete financially with about 3/4 sides in the division so I'd rather we didn't go silly with money trying. I doubt our BoD would do that anyway tbf. I'd be happy enough for us to get a good mix of players in and try and build something a bit more sustainable than the usual whole new squad we've had to deal with recently. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted April 18, 2022 Share Posted April 18, 2022 There are still going to be several big spending clubs in the division the following season. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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