Energy Prices

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Left Back said:

We'll be paying back significantly more than we "borrowed".  Every trick in the book will be used to keep this levy in place long after the money is repaid so as well as lining the pockets of the producers we'll now be lining the pockets of the suppliers and the bankers (again).

That's generally how loans work.

But if there is a clearly defined interest rate and end date when the scheme commences, then your main concern should be addressed.

Of course, there should also be the ability to opt out for those who prefer to take their chances at the going market rate.

[Left Back]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

That's generally how loans work.

But if there is a clearly defined interest rate and end date when the scheme commences, then your main concern should be addressed.

Of course, there should also be the ability to opt out for those who prefer to take their chances at the going market rate.

You seem to be quite happy that you're potentially being given no option other than borrowing large sums of money to give directly to other people as a windfall?

[Todd_is_God]

14 minutes ago, Left Back said:

You seem to be quite happy that you're potentially being given no option other than borrowing large sums of money to give directly to other people as a windfall?

More like I fully understand that either I'll need to pay about £10-12k over the next 24 months to keep warm and not sit in the dark, or someone else is going to subsidise it for me and that will then need paying back over a 10-15 year period. A levy or a tax increase makes no difference, ultimately. Either way I'm going to be paying for it, but i'd prefer to do so during a longer period of time where the base cost is lower and inflation isn't in double digits.

Of course i'd prefer we weren't in this position in the first place (my thoughts on the root cause have been pretty clear), but given there appears to be no public appetite for seeking to end the war in Ukraine / lift sanctions on Russia then I'm not really sure what alternative you might be suggesting happens. Care to share?

ETA I said that there should be an opt-out for anyone who feels they would rather just pay market rate, so the bit in bold you've just made up.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[strichener]

32 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Define "Royally fucked"

And if it doesn't happen, what, the average bill is in the region of £5-6k over the next two years?

Dunno about you but personally I'd rather a levy of a few hundred a year was added to my bills a few years down the line than have to allocate £5k more for energy next year, on top of everything else going up in price.

Why are you assuming that there will be a reduction in price a few years down the line?

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, strichener said:

Why are you assuming that there will be a reduction in price a few years down the line?

Why would there not be? Literally no-one is predicting wholesale gas costs will not come back down.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[strichener]

13 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

More like I fully understand that either I'll need to pay about £10-12k over the next 24 months to keep warm and not sit in the dark, or someone else is going to subsidise it for me and that will then need paying back over a 10-15 year period. A levy or a tax increase makes no difference, ultimately. Either way I'm going to be paying for it, but i'd prefer to do so during a longer period of time where the base cost is lower and inflation isn't in double digits.

Of course i'd prefer we weren't in this position in the first place (my thoughts on the root cause have been pretty clear), but given there appears to be no public appetite for seeking to end the war in Ukraine / lift sanctions on Russia then I'm not really sure what alternative you might be suggesting happens. Care to share?

The price of energy was rising before the Ukraine conflict.  Why are people trying to conflate two different issues.  Russia is still selling gas to Europe and the rest of the world.  There has been no supply side shocks, demand side increases or rise in production costs that justify the increases that we are seeing.  It is down to speculation and your solution is to reward the financial companies by letting them loan us money to subsidise the speculators.  Maybe you missed the part in BP results where they stated that the most profitable part of the business was energy trading.

There has clearly been a breakdown in the market and financial measures should be introduced to eradicate speculators from the market.  And before we get into a how can you do this argument, the government easily managed it during the 2008 banking crisis with their short selling ban.

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by strichener

[strichener]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Why would there not be? Literally no-one is predicting wholesale gas costs will not come back down.

Literally nobody predicted energy prices going this high.  BP produce an annual energy market report that didn't pick this up, OPEC never expected prices to rise to these levels.  That is why longer term predictions are a waste of time.

[Todd_is_God]

19 minutes ago, strichener said:

The price of energy was rising before the Ukraine conflict.  Why are people trying to conflate two different issues.  Russia is still selling gas to Europe and the rest of the world.  There has been no supply side shocks, demand side increases or rise in production costs that justify the increases that we are seeing.  It is down to speculation and your solution is to reward the financial companies by letting them loan us money to subsidise the speculators.  Maybe you missed the part in BP results where they stated that the most profitable part of the business was energy trading.

There has clearly been a breakdown in the market and financial measures should be introduced to eradicate speculators.fro. the market.  And before we get into a how can you do this argument, the government easily managed it during the 2008 banking crisis with their short selling ban.

Yes, because ultimately it's a supply and demand issue, initiated off the back of the easing of covid restrictions. See also fuel prices. These are only now starting to (slowly) fall.

A broken fan on NordStream 1 reduced the supply of oil in May (Canada then wouldn't repair and return it because of sanctions on Russia), and the sanctions on Russian oil have since caused them to further reduce supply in return, exacerbating that problem.

Restoring the supply of oil from NS1 from 20% to 100% of capacity, and getting NS2 operational would massively increase the volume of oil available and drive wholesale price down. It's absolutely incredible to claim that the cost of Energy has little / nothing to do with the conflict.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[s_dog]

On 16/08/2022 at 08:43, Hard Graft said:

When is the SG going to announce the start of their low cost energy company? It will be a great benefit at this time and should help out the majority of people.

They haven't shelved it completely but they were advised against setting it up for now, and like flyingscot said the failures of other not-for-profit energy companies was one of the reasons. What has happened since then has only made it even less likely to happen any time soon. The energy market in the UK in particular is seriously messed up, and the Gov's decision not to maintain any kind of gas storage in the UK means we're completely in the shit this winter.

Edited August 17, 2022 by s_dog

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Given that this is about to hit us in 6 weeks time, does anyone have any alternative ideas about how to deal with this issue if we don't have an energy cap freeze or government handouts?

Can only be familiatising yourself with your daily unit usage(s) and their respective costs (with the caveat that 1 unit of gas is approx 11kWh and not 1 kWh) then reducing usage where possible.

A spreadsheet is a good shout as you can then keep track of costs (and its a good record for future)

Wearing warm clothes indoors, using a blanket, turning down thermostats, not heating rooms you don't need to (particularly useful if you have multiple zones in your house), shorter showers, reviewing your Hive schedule if you have one etc.

In essence, a lot of stuff most people normally wouldn't have to think about, but I can't see (m)any other ways.

[s_dog]

18 hours ago, Left Back said:

I was already with Octopus.  I signed up to there Intelligent Octopus tariff

There's only been deals available for existing customers of some suppliers (Octopus, Eon, British Gas are all I can remember) for months. For everyone else, the fixes that have been available have been eye wateringly expensive and always well above the predicted price cap. In the past month its just gone crazy and I think strichener's got it right, its gone way beyond price rises due to increased costs/Russian sanctions or anything else. The Government will have to come up with something, otherwise everyone but the energy suppliers will end up out of business. 

[Clown Job]

Undertakers are going to be making an absolute fortune this winter 

[AsimButtHitsASix]

13 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

Undertakers are going to be making an absolute fortune this winter 

Not with the cost of the gas needed for a cremation they wont

[renton]

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Given that this is about to hit us in 6 weeks time, does anyone have any alternative ideas about how to deal with this issue if we don't have an energy cap freeze or government handouts?

Burn piles of tyres?

[renton]

25 minutes ago, AsimButtHitsASix said:

Not with the cost of the gas needed for a cremation they wont

Going to be an excess of compost next summer maybe?

[superbigal]

1 hour ago, oaksoft said:

Given that this is about to hit us in 6 weeks time, does anyone have any alternative ideas about how to deal with this issue if we don't have an energy cap freeze or government handouts?

Prioritise for some. 

Seriously I couldn't believe the amount of folk I heard moaning about energy price rises, while sunning in a 5 Star AI resort in Lara during the school holidays.

These people (I include myself) should not be subsidised with £400 handouts, while loads of people slip into real fuel poverty.

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by superbigal

[welshbairn]

Octupus were offering a 2 year (I think) fixed price deal last year, at pretty much the same cost as the variable rate. Never got round to taking them up on it. 

[Todd_is_God]

56 minutes ago, s_dog said:

There's only been deals available for existing customers of some suppliers (Octopus, Eon, British Gas are all I can remember) for months. For everyone else, the fixes that have been available have been eye wateringly expensive and always well above the predicted price cap. In the past month its just gone crazy and I think strichener's got it right, its gone way beyond price rises due to increased costs/Russian sanctions or anything else. The Government will have to come up with something, otherwise everyone but the energy suppliers will end up out of business. 

This, for me, is just denialist chat that allows for people who were fully behind keeping furlough and covid restrictions in place, who support the campaign against fossil fuels, nuclear and fracking, and who fully support defending Ukraine at all costs to feel better about the impact all those political choices they threw themselves behind because they looked good are having now on their energy bills.

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Octupus were offering a 2 year (I think) fixed price deal last year, at pretty much the same cost as the variable rate. Never got round to taking them up on it. 

Most suppliers would have been the same.

ETA many still are. The fixed rate deals out there atm offer a unit price that won't be far off the average unit price the variable rate will end up being if no action is taken to cap it below the market rate.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Todd_is_God

[strichener]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes, because ultimately it's a supply and demand issue, initiated off the back of the easing of covid restrictions. See also fuel prices. These are only now starting to (slowly) fall.

A broken fan on NordStream 1 reduced the supply of oil in May (Canada then wouldn't repair and return it because of sanctions on Russia), and the sanctions on Russian oil have since caused them to further reduce supply in return, exacerbating that problem.

Restoring the supply of oil from NS1 from 20% to 100% of capacity, and getting NS2 operational would massively increase the volume of oil available and drive wholesale price down. It's absolutely incredible to claim that the cost of Energy has little / nothing to do with the conflict.

I didn't say that it had nothing to do with it but it is not the cause.

Anyway, I don't think I'll be taking my technical analysis from someone who doesn't know the difference between oil and gas - Norstream is a gas pipeline.