Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Key bridge damaged in Melitopol:

 

Think this severely disrupts the land bridge to Crimea.

[TxRover]

16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Key bridge damaged in Melitopol:

 

Think this severely disrupts the land bridge to Crimea.

It doesn’t make it any easier. There are two main highway bridges in the Melitopol area, across a river that barely deserves the name, except in the spring thaw. As I understood it, one was effectively destroyed in the capitulation of Melitopol, and this would render the second useless for supply vehicles. That basically closes the coastal supply route to Crimea and the east bank of the Dnipro…not so good for Putin.

[Newbornbairn]

Putin's increased funding to internal security forces by 50%. Overall military spending now at 30% of the Russian budget.

[Sergeant Wilson]

19 hours ago, TxRover said:

And, apparently, also hitting a hotel used by Wagner in Luhansk with lots of casualties.

Hotel? Is this the I'm a Celebrity war? Do they stay in hotels and go down to the trenches on the front line when the cameras are on?

[welshbairn]

Hope this isn't cover for something more serious. From the Guardian.

Quote

Belarus has launched an unannounced inspection of its troops’ combat readiness, its defence ministry said on Tuesday.

“The activities will be comprehensive in nature; troops will have to move to the designated areas as soon as possible, carry out their engineering equipment, organise protection and defence, and set up bridge crossings over the rivers Neman and Berezina,” the defence ministry said.

It added that military equipment and personnel will be moved and movement along certain public roads would be restricted.

 

[Newbornbairn]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Hotel? Is this the I'm a Celebrity war? Do they stay in hotels and go down to the trenches on the front line when the cameras are on?

Have you ever met the RAF? 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Hope this isn't cover for something more serious. From the Guardian.

 

[ICTChris]

Reports are that Russian forces have made a breakthrough in Bakhmut. There have been some footage showing Ukrainian defenders in place but they could have fallen back.

The US will apparently announce this week that they will provide Patriot anti-missile defence to Ukraine. This will allow faster interception of Russian missiles and will impact the effectiveness of the missiles Russia has reportedly purchased from Iran.

Long range strikes continue on targets in Melitopol, with the latest aimed at the command staff of an Ossetian division.

[LongTimeLurker]

Guess Patriots would explain this tweet:

 

 

[TxRover]

11 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Reports are that Russian forces have made a breakthrough in Bakhmut. There have been some footage showing Ukrainian defenders in place but they could have fallen back.

This is where, as a Russian commander, you could get very paranoid. Did they really fall back? Why did they fall back? Are they regrouping to attack my flanks when I advance? Can I protect my supply lines if I advance? Do I have enough infantry to support an advance AND consolidate the territory I gain?

[ICTChris]

NYT article on the defensive fortifications built by Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html
 

 

[TxRover]

Nice wrap up for 14/12/22 for the Institute for the Study of War. Key note is Putin is having concerns…Full version here: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-14

“Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly postponed his annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly, indicating that the Kremlin is not confident that it can continue to shape the Russian information space.
• Ukrainian officials are forecasting that Russian forces may attempt to launch a large-scale offensive at the beginning of 2023.
• Ukrainian air defenses shot down all drones that Russian forces launched in attacks on December 14.
• Ukrainian sources reported that 64 POWs returned to Ukrainian-held territory.
• The Kremlin will likely intensify information operations aimed at presenting the Ukrainian government as oppressing religious liberties and freedom of the press.  
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the Svatove and Kreminna areas.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.
• Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• Kremlin officials admitted to receiving complaints about mobilization despite mobilization’s "de facto end."
• Ukrainian partisans continue to aid Ukrainian forces in identifying valuable Russian targets.”

[LongTimeLurker]

Hopefully this means Joe Biden isn't falling for Putin trundling out the nuke-capable ICBM and warning of "consequences" if the Patriots are delivered:

 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Hopefully this means Joe Biden isn't falling for Putin trundling out the nuke-capable ICBM and warning of "consequences" if the Patriots are delivered:

 

One of my favorite comments, “Rattling a sabre makes noise, drawing one does not.”

[Cosmic Joe]

8 minutes ago, TxRover said:

One of my favorite comments, “Rattling a sabre makes noise, drawing one does not.”

Obviously drawing or painting something is good to be less noisy than rattling something. 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[Newbornbairn]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/5783

Quote

EU Parliament Recognises Ukraine Soviet-Era Famine as 'Genocide'
EU parliament recognizes Holodomor as genocide against Ukrainians

That's going to piss off the Greenock Guderian 

[ICTChris]

On 13/12/2022 at 17:38, ICTChris said:

Reports are that Russian forces have made a breakthrough in Bakhmut. There have been some footage showing Ukrainian defenders in place but they could have fallen back.

 

A Russian military blogger has posted that Ukrainian troops have recaptured positions previously taken by Russia in Bakhmut. It seems like some positions are changing hands but overall things are fairly static.

[welshbairn]

Unless they've been seriously decimating Ukrainian troops, the myth of Wagner as a formidable fighting force must be blown by now. Is it 4 months they've been at it in Bakhmut?