TxRover Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, highlandcowden said: Not a good time to be going to Russia on a weekend break,then Nein 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Strong suspicions now that Ukraine now have a 150km range capability with GMLRS: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Some of the videos of that Melitopol strike are gruesome. Seems like there were a lot of Russian soldiers in very close proximity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On a lighter note, a story about Leith Athletic providing training to Ukrainian kids who are living on a boat in Leith. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainian-kids-are-having-a-ball-at-leith-athletic-nbvqkn9sj 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 9 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: Strong suspicions now that Ukraine now have a 150km range capability with GMLRS: 150km range* *When some poor sod is willing to illuminate the target with a laser. Just noting that, given the Russian tendencies for paranoia and torture, things are likely to get much worse in the occupied areas. Since the TRLG-230 needs a laser illuminating the target to make best use of its 150km range, the Russians are going to be tearing Melitopol apart, looking for the Ukrainian Special Forces that guided this strike in. They will probably just Casablanca the whole thing, rounding up the usual suspects, and start torturing people to try to get some data. It’s a shitty situation, being forced to endanger your own occupied civilians in order to drive out the invaders, but that’s war. Of more interest is the ISW report that the U.S. is no longer pressuring Ukraine to avoid strikes on Russia proper. Combined with the likely addition of the TRLG-230’s to Ukraine’s equipment, there are some very concerning developments for Russia to consider. There are, effectively, three remaining rail supply connections between Russia and occupied Ukraine. Two of the three were somewhat threatened by the possession of HIMARS by Ukraine, but now all three are at risk of interdiction if the Ukrainians have extra TRLG-230’s available. Granted, getting Ukrainian Special Forces into these areas with laser designators isn’t exactly a walk in the park, but it’s clear that a majority of the population of these areas is still more friendly to Ukraine than Russia, so it’s certainly doable. A coordinated strike that took out two or three bridges on each of these three lines within a 24 hour period would leave the Russians with a truly abysmal tactical situation, especially if timed to occur right after a large expenditure of munitions by the Russians in the area. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 This guy also has interesting ideas about what the Ukrainians could do with 1000 km range drones to mess up Russia's gas pipeline network. which also ties in with the point you made about the US being more relaxed now about attacks on Russia proper. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, TxRover said: it’s clear that a majority of the population of these areas is still more friendly to Ukraine than Russia Where do you mean? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Reports from Bakhmut are that Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing, at least in some places. Russian sources say they’ve captured the cement factory, that’s been fought over for three months. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: This guy also has interesting ideas about what the Ukrainians could do with 1000 km range drones to mess up Russia's gas pipeline network. which also ties in with the point you made about the US being more relaxed now about attacks on Russia proper. He has interesting ideas, but misses a thought. Hitting pump stations on pipelines might be even more effective. The Russians can concentrate air defences around the refineries and nexus points, but there are too many pump stations (every 20 to 100 miles). And each of these pump stations use equipment that Russia can’t replace domestically and doesn’t have many spares for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 (edited) 26 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Reports from Bakhmut are that Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing, at least in some places. Russian sources say they’ve captured the cement factory, that’s been fought over for three months. Someone said the next defensive line is much easier to defend for Ukraine, so if if true, I'm not sure why Wagner spent so many lives and resources trying to capture Bakhmut. Was it just about a promise Prigozhin made and his political prospects? Is there some strategic value I've missed (very possible)? Edited December 11, 2022 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Someone said the next defensive line is much easier to defend for Ukraine, so if if true, I'm not sure why Wagner spent so many lives and resources trying to capture Bakhmut. Was it about a promise Prigozhin made and his political prospects? Prigozhin said today that it’s about capturing the city and destroying Ukrainian troop’s and equipment through attrition. Of course, Russian forces are being destroyed as well, likely at a higher rate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Prigozhin said today that it’s about capturing the city and destroying Ukrainian troop’s and equipment through attrition. Of course, Russian forces are being destroyed as well, likely at a higher rate. I suppose prisoners don't get paid if they die and it saves on keeping them alive in the justice system. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 7 hours ago, TxRover said: . Granted, getting Ukrainian Special Forces into these areas with laser designators isn’t exactly a walk in the park, but it’s clear that a majority of the population of these areas is still more friendly to Ukraine than Russia, so it’s certainly doable. Does anyone know what areas? Asked before. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, welshbairn said: Does anyone know what areas? Asked before. Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts were roughly 25-35% pro-Russian sentiment in 2014, prior to invasion. However, with the forced recruitment and other issues recently, that number would fall, although it might be somewhat offset by the departure of pro-Ukrainian civilians. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 More long range HIMARs strikes overnight, this time on Russian positions in Svatove in Luhansk. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 hours ago, ICTChris said: More long range HIMARs strikes overnight, this time on Russian positions in Svatove in Luhansk. And, apparently, also hitting a hotel used by Wagner in Luhansk with lots of casualties. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zen Archer (Raconteur) Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, TxRover said: And, apparently, also hitting a hotel used by Wagner in Luhansk with lots of casualties. Schoolboy error, should have used one of these. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 It's reported the hotel was full of Wagner officers. Shame. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Alex Salmond's suiting life outside politics. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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