Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Dev]

32 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Holy f**k. 

 

They continue to give the Western world even more reasons for the dismantling of the Russian State as we currently know it. 

War crimes, Reparations, etc etc.

Can't wait for the Nuremburg episode of this invasion.

[dorlomin]

He was one of the prisoners Wagner hired a few weeks back. He was made to read a statement claiming to have defected to the Ukrainians, Wagner are claiming they kidnapped him from Kyiv. Seems the execution was meant as a terror tactic to dissuade the prisoners from surrendering. How much of the rest is true guesswork. My guess is Ukrainians have allowed people who wanted to change sides to do so pretty easily. Many they capture will be Ukrainians from Luhansk and Donetsk, or from Crimea. So its possible he was caught and was being used as a labourer (there is always a lot of work to do that does not involve being trusted with a gun) by the unit that caught him, before he was recaptured by Wagner in one of their attacks near Bahkmut. 

The rest is their usual bullsh*t to try and make them seem more badass and capable to the people they have drawn into their services. 

Its really just a mafia state with nukes. 

[Newbornbairn]

The Wagner Group are just Putin's SS

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

The Wagner Group are just Putin's SS

Thought that story might have brought back memories of a morning way back... 

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Its really just a mafia state with nukes. 

The reason their military is so crap is that more of their GDP has left the country into offshore bank accounts of Putin's buddies than has been spent in country since he took power, like developing a micro electronics industry for example. When he took control from the 1990s oligarchs it was just a transfer of funds to other kleptocrats rather than strengthening Mother Russia and its citizens. The state of their military hardware makes you wonder how much of their nuclear capability has actually been maintained.

[Newbornbairn]

53 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Thought that story might have brought back memories of a morning way back... 

Nope

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

The Wagner Group are just Putin's SS

More Putin’s Brown Shirts…there will be a time when Putin decides he needs to get them back in line and their leadership will be picked up and shot, then a new organization under more control by Putin will appear, that’ll be his SS.

[ICTChris]

Some background on Wagner.  Some of this guys stuff is a little out there but he’s good on stuff like this.

The thread has several links to ultra gory content, nothing of it in the thread itself.

[ICTChris]

Defence Ministry of Ukraine releases the following clip

Rumours going around that Ukrainian forces have landed south of the Dnipro on the Kinburn Peninsula, which is a strip of land that juts out West from occupied Kherson.

 

Who knows what’s true and what’s not. It would be very difficult for Ukraine to get a foothold there, not sure they have heavy weapons available to be shipped over. It does show that Ukraine are perhaps looking to push forward rather than sit on recaptured territory.

[welshbairn]

I was thinking that the Kinburn Spit must have been named by a Scotsman or Irishman but it turns out it's Turkish for nasal hair. 

[TommyDickFingers]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Some background on Wagner.  Some of this guys stuff is a little out there but he’s good on stuff like this.

The thread has several links to ultra gory content, nothing of it in the thread itself.

I was under the impression the "exchanged" was an error in translation and that he had in fact been blugeoned in the street and clandestinely extracted by these monsters.Either way it's horrific.

Here's an article you may or may not find of interest from 2020 on Prigozin, Utkin, Wagner etc. As the per the above tweet I wouldn't recommend watching the vid.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2020/08/14/pmc-structure-exposed/

 

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The state of their military hardware makes you wonder how much of their nuclear capability has actually been maintained.

There's been a fair bit of discussion on this but with having no way of verifying one way or the other until they launch a few its a moot point.

You can see below how much the US spends on maintenance of their nuclear arsenal, extrapolate for Russia and decide for yourself what nick they are in

Spoiler

 

[TxRover]

In the end, it’s not a matter of what Russia is willing to spend on designing, acquiring and maintaining equipment, but rather how much of the money allocated was syphoned off. In the design phase, the R&D funds can be fiddled with…in acquisition, the replacement of components with visually similar parts and/or electronics that will past the tests used are common to allow the diversion of funds…in maintaining equipment, falsifying reports, reducing frequency, patching vs repairing and all that again allows diversion of funds.

All those Russian yachts aren’t buying themselves, the money is coming from somewhere. For a long time Russian military equipment wasn’t being “tested” in war by any Russians to the extent that required these kleptomaniacs to keep their greed in check, and now it’s coming home to roost,

Western missiles, for instance, are generally reliability tested to around a composite 99% reliability, under ideal conditions. In battle, you’d expect between 75% and 90% effective reliability, hence the reason if you want to kill something, you take two or three shots at it (3x75% hit probability results in three hits about 42% of the time, and one hit nearly 98% of the time). Given the likely shortcuts and subpar components used in Russian missiles, you would expect a far lower reliability, and the results of the attacks by “precision weapons” in Ukraine seem to prove that out. Russian accuracy figures have proven to be astronomically overstated, and we really have little basis for guessing how many weapons have been launched and lost…without that, we’re basically reduced to spitballing figures.

The most interesting thing about this is it is likely strongly influencing military decision making in Russia. Without any ability to significantly improve quality/reliability in/on current equipment, the Russians have resorted to massed numbers and fixed defensive positions…ask the French how that works.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

7 minutes ago, TxRover said:

In the end, it’s not a matter of what Russia is willing to spend on designing, acquiring and maintaining equipment, but rather how much of the money allocated was syphoned off. In the design phase, the R&D funds can be fiddled with…in acquisition, the replacement of components with visually similar parts and/or electronics that will past the tests used are common to allow the diversion of funds…in maintaining equipment, falsifying reports, reducing frequency, patching vs repairing and all that again allows diversion of funds.

All those Russian yachts aren’t buying themselves, the money is coming from somewhere. For a long time Russian military equipment wasn’t being “tested” in war by any Russians to the extent that required these kleptomaniacs to keep their greed in check, and now it’s coming home to roost,

Western missiles, for instance, are generally reliability tested to around a composite 99% reliability, under ideal conditions. In battle, you’d expect between 75% and 90% effective reliability, hence the reason if you want to kill something, you take two or three shots at it (3x75% hit probability results in three hits about 42% of the time, and one hit nearly 98% of the time). Given the likely shortcuts and subpar components used in Russian missiles, you would expect a far lower reliability, and the results of the attacks by “precision weapons” in Ukraine seem to prove that out. Russian accuracy figures have proven to be astronomically overstated, and we really have little basis for guessing how many weapons have been launched and lost…without that, we’re basically reduced to spitballing figures.

The most interesting thing about this is it is likely strongly influencing military decision making in Russia. Without any ability to significantly improve quality/reliability in/on current equipment, the Russians have resorted to massed numbers and fixed defensive positions…ask the French how that works.

[LongTimeLurker]

9 hours ago, ICTChris said:

.... 

Who knows what’s true and what’s not. It would be very difficult for Ukraine to get a foothold there, not sure they have heavy weapons available to be shipped over. It does show that Ukraine are perhaps looking to push forward rather than sit on recaptured territory.

 

Intially thought this was bonkers but have been reading plenty of stuff on twitter that suggests it is difficult for the Russians to hold on here now because it is in conventional artillery range at this point. No suggestion that it's a bridgehead for doing anything else but it's feasible for a relatively small Ukrainian force to hold and prevent it from being used to launch Shahed drones according to these people because the way into the spit from Kherson oblast is very marshy. Guess if the Ukrainians can do this there is the added bonus that it might help open up more of Mykolaiv oblast  for shipping.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[ICTChris]

Zelensky is visiting Kherson

In other news, Lavrov, who is in Indonesia for the G20, was reported to have been taken to hospital there.  He has since posted a video of him in his hotel saying journalists should be more careful with what they report but didn't deny that he'd been in the hospital.

[dorlomin]

Lavrov in hospital in Indonesia. He is a 72 year old man, so its not a huge surprise he gets ill. Russian MFA is apparently denying it. So...... we know how trustworthy thier denials of anything are. (edited, already been posted oops)

Edited November 14, 2022 by dorlomin

[Dev]

13 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Defence Ministry of Ukraine releases the following clip

Rumours going around that Ukrainian forces have landed south of the Dnipro on the Kinburn Peninsula, which is a strip of land that juts out West from occupied Kherson.

 

Who knows what’s true and what’s not. It would be very difficult for Ukraine to get a foothold there, not sure they have heavy weapons available to be shipped over. It does show that Ukraine are perhaps looking to push forward rather than sit on recaptured territory.

//en.usm.media/construction-companies-are-invited-to-mykolayiv-for-the-restoration-of-ports/

Ukraine starting the process of restoring Port facilities at Mykolayiy. The Port access must be protected in order for this to work so the control of Kinburn Spit etc is vital to that process.

Then there's the military aspect with reports of a continuing evacuation from Kherson Oblast to Mariupol where 100,000 relics of the former population are already  surviving in dire conditions! Looks like only military left in Kherson Oblast before very long. Some of them are reported as relocating too to Mariupol. Beginning to look as though Mariupol is the next back-stop for Putin's "armies". Defences also reported as being strengthened in Melitopol.

Ukraine military gaining entry to southern Kherson via the mouth of the Dnipro may make sense if there's enough fire power to cover them. If they can establish a base there then they can head east. This would counter-act the alleged mining of the south bank of the Dnipro against the river itself by coming in from a completely different direction and straight up the lines between dug in defences which may be set parallel to the Dnipro and facing north-west. They could progress between and along these lines rather than across them. This way would also cut off Crimea - save for the Kerch bridge.

Just supposition at present.

 

Construction companies are invited to Mykolayiv for the restoration of ports

NOVEMBER, 13TH, 2022 - 16:30

 

Vitaliy Kim, the head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, called on representatives of construction companies to return to restore the region.

“After a more or less safe distance, it’s time to restore the Mykolaiv ports, because it’s important,” said the head of Regional Military Administration on the live broadcast of the nationwide telethon “Yedini Novyni”.

Kim addressed his appeal “to all businesses, to people, to prepare to return, to deploy in Mykolaiv.”

As Kim emphasized, he is already setting “a task for himself – the restoration of the region.”

According to the head of the Regional Military Administration, after the expulsion of the russian troops from Kherson, restoration work has already begun, in particular, road workers.

“I invite builders, construction companies that can work. We will do something with the money and restore our region,” concluded Kim.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Dev
.

[ICTChris]

Couple of interesting podcasts out today.

War On The Rocks has a short interview with the head of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, Viktor Khorenko.

Popular Front has an episode about the active resistance movement within Russia, featuring analyst Tom Lord.

[welshbairn]

 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

 

One real improved road accesses the entire area, and it’s on the northern shore and thus under Ukrainian observation and fire. A few goat trails further south allow some access for Russian 4x4 and tracked vehicles, but are also likely interdicted. Given the geography, the Russians won’t be able to defend this area, and the Ukrainians will be bottled up once in there…but it provides full control of the mouth of the Dnipro. Smart move, very surprised the Russians didn’t do more defensively while the retreat was on, but I guess the loss of hat area was assumed to be a given.