Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

 

 

[renton]

 

 

 

[Bairnardo]

I cant follow the maps.... What's left I terms of ousting Russia from Ukranian soil?

[ICTChris]

11 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I cant follow the maps.... What's left I terms of ousting Russia from Ukranian soil?

[ICTChris]

Kherson - Majority of the Oblast is occupied by Russia but Kherson city is now liberated.  Not sure about the breakdown of population.

Zaporizhia - Most of the Oblast is still occupied by Russia but most of the population are in the Ukrainian controlled territory, which includes the capital.

Donetsk - Initially about 40% of the Oblast was controlled by Russia (the DPR) but more territory was won back, mainly in the South during the invasion.  Here is the Wiki map of the situation there a month ago, not sure a great deal has changed since

 

Luhansk - 95% controlled by Russia - it was announced as captured by Shiogu and Putin but some slivers have been taken back following the Kharkiv counteroffensive.  Another Wiki map shows the situation there.  Seems like this will be the next big battleground with Ukraine putting pressure on Kremina and Svatove.

[ICTChris]

Russia had previously occupied territory in Chernihiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Zhyomyr Oblast and Kyiv Oblast in the North - they took that mainly in the initial attack in February but left in early April after losing the Battle of Kyiv.

Russia also occupied large parts of Kharkiv Oblast but were forced out by Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv counter-offensive.  I think that Russia might still hold a few small pockets adjacent to Luhansk Oblast but they are unpopulated areas.

Technically, Snake Island is part of Odessa Oblast so the Russians occupied that between February and June, when they withdrew.

[ICTChris]

Ukrainians dismantle a billboard reading “Russia Is Here Forever”

 

[Karpaty Lviv]

What a start to the weekend  

[dorlomin]

On 10/09/2022 at 12:11, dorlomin said:

The 100 Days Offensive was the final phase of WW1. Its what happens when one side can no longer generate operational reserves to stem breakthroughs. The Germans had spent their manpower advantage over the allies in the Spring Offensive that while successful, was costly and never achieved the results needed (not unlike Russia's summer offensives). In August 1918, the British were conducted operations to clear up the front for a big offensive in 1919, but the Germans kept breaking hard. Ludendorf called one such day "the black day of the German Army". So the British, French and Americans began a series of bloody attacks that kept breaking through and pushing the Germans back. This steady beat of retreats led to the collapse of their army and the suing for peace. 

I do not know what will happen and have a very very unclear picture of what is happening. But I thought I would raise it for people following this to read up on how attritional  wars break into wars of movement. Certainly better than the 15th time someone says "This is like Stalingrad".

In the coming weeks and months there may be long periods of little movement. This is not the dashing wars of manoeuvre. Its attrition, its grinding down with artillery and trench raiding.

Long and damn cold and hard winter ahead for the people in Ukraine. The poorest here in the UK are also going to be paying the highest price for use standing up to Putin, but that is the UK not supporting its poorest and not the fault of those who wish to see Ukrainians get their country back. 

In the coming weeks if it looks like not much is happening, its not because its "a stale mate" its because without over whelming material or number advantages, this blood long hard way of fighting is the only real way the Ukrainians can grind Russias capacity to retain their hold on the conquered territory. That is how winning will look, months of little happening till Russia collapses and retreats again. 

[LongTimeLurker]

Svatove and Starobilsk in northern Luhansk oblast might be the last low hanging fruit that Vlad won't be quite so bothered about holding and might do one of these big retreats from again given that's a sparsely poplated mainly agricultural area with no critical strategic transport links. Don't think you need to be a rocket scientist to work out that taking Melitopol and Berdiansk on the Sea of Azov coast is what Ukraine really needs to do next along with another successful strike on the Kerch bridge if they want to take the whole shebang including Crimea. Think they do need to try to take Crimea back to secure their southern coastline and not have a repeat of this conflict another few years down the line. Russia appears to be actively preparing for when they give that a go:

Also could be time now for Moldova to finally request Ukrainian help where Transnistria is concerned now Vlad's troops are safely behind the Dniepr and not as uncomfortably close as they were back in early March when these sorts of maps were appearing on twitter:

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

30 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Svatove and Starobilsk in northern Luhansk oblast might be the last low hanging fruit that Vlad won't be quite so bothered about holding and might do one of these big retreats from again given that's a sparsely poplated mainly agricultural area with no critical strategic transport links. Don't think you need to be a rocket scientist to work out that taking Melitopol and Berdiansk on the Sea of Azov coast is what Ukraine really needs to do next along with another successful strike on the Kerch bridge if they want to take the whole shebang including Crimea. Think they do need to try to take Crimea back to secure their southern coastline and not have a repeat of this conflict another few years down the line. Russia appears to be actively preparing for when they give that a go:

Also could be time now for Moldova to finally request Ukrainian help where Transnistria is concerned now Vlad's troops are safely behind the Dniepr and not as uncomfortably close as they were back in early March when these sorts of maps were appearing on twitter:

 

I suspect Mariupol is a more likely target. The Russian defenses in Crimea are a red herring, as all the Ukrainians need to do is cut the supply lines and water supply. Mariupol would sever the land supplies and place the Kerch bridge and ferries under interdictive fire. If the withdrawn troops are to be used around Donetsk, a thrust in the Svatove region might draw some reaction forces north, allowing a pivot and drive south-east from Velyka Novosilka to proceed with less resistance, while the troops south/east of the Dnipro have to redeploy to protect their suddenly exposed eastern flank. That would serve a dual purpose in the Kherson area and probably result in a fall back to the Crimean peninsular by Russian forces.

If that happened, recapture of Crimea is a matter of time due to the ability to cut off 90% of the water supply while interdicting supply across the Kerch bridge and ferries. It would also release a large number of Ukrainian forces to redeploy to face Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.

People will say, “why Mariupol, it took forever for the Russians to capture that place?”, but that ignores the defenders were motivated, the Russian captors are not. It would also allow establishment of anti-air interdiction out into the Black Sea with the S-300 systems, and simplify the air defense issues by shortening the defensive lines.

[Dev]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Viewing the above map and the orange coloured territories and assuming that The Ukraine military does occupy (not just control) these areas. Does that NOW give Ukraine the capability to reach the Sea of Azov coastal ports as well as the whole of the remainder of Russian held Kherson Oblast just with artillery/missiles?

IF it does then is Ukraine in a potential position to grind down the Russian military in this area (not including Crimea for the purpose of the question) as it is supplied from the north? Does it make it practically impossible for the Russians to hold onto this territory so, eventually, Russia will have to retreat once more?

Thinking grind Russia out of the area then Crimea will have to be conceded too.

Thoughts?

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Dev
.

[TxRover]

2 minutes ago, Dev said:

Viewing the above map and the orange coloured territories and assuming that The Ukraine military does occupy (not just control) these areas. Does that NOW give Ukraine the capability to reach the Sea of Azov coastal ports as well as the whole of the remainder of Russian held Kherson Oblast?

IF it does then is Ukraine in a potential position to grind down the Russian military in this area (not including Crimea for the purpose of the question) as it is supplied from the north? Does it make it practically impossible for the Russians to hold onto this territory so, eventually, Russia will have to retreat once more?

Thinking grind Russia out of the area then Crimea will have to be conceded too.

Thoughts?

 

 

Somewhat. The problem is to reach really deep, to the coast, in most cases you would be moving a HIMARS unreasonably close to the front lines, which isn’t smart. HIMARS have been preserved by shooting from a distance behind the lines and scooting quickly. Close to the front lines, you risk being spotted and counterbatteried quickly.

[Wee Bully]

31 minutes ago, Dev said:

Viewing the above map and the orange coloured territories and assuming that The Ukraine military does occupy (not just control) these areas. Does that NOW give Ukraine the capability to reach the Sea of Azov coastal ports as well as the whole of the remainder of Russian held Kherson Oblast just with artillery/missiles?

IF it does then is Ukraine in a potential position to grind down the Russian military in this area (not including Crimea for the purpose of the question) as it is supplied from the north? Does it make it practically impossible for the Russians to hold onto this territory so, eventually, Russia will have to retreat once more?

Thinking grind Russia out of the area then Crimea will have to be conceded too.

Thoughts?

 

 

I think one difference we need to bear in mind is that the Russians don’t care what they destroy, whereas the Ukrainians are trying to preserve their cities.  It’s why the Kherson offensive seemed to go so slowly - the Ukrainians squeezed and squeezed the Russians out, and it seems from the pictures I’ve seen that Kherson city is in pretty good shape. 

[jagfox]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Dev said:

Viewing the above map and the orange coloured territories and assuming that The Ukraine military does occupy (not just control) these areas. Does that NOW give Ukraine the capability to reach the Sea of Azov coastal ports as well as the whole of the remainder of Russian held Kherson Oblast just with artillery/missiles?

Not quite all with GMLRS which is why the Ukrainians want the longer range ATACMS for HIMARS which Joe Biden so far has refused. There is a school of thought though that a very limited number may have still wound up arriving courtesy of some other country like Romania and that explains some of the mysterious longer distance strikes into Crimea including the Kerch bridge. Others think the Ukrainians have developed their own long range missile system called Hrim for that in very limited numbers.

[jagfox]

[alta-pete]

I have zero on which to base this hypothesis but looking at where they are, the time of year and the territorial positions involved I can see peace being sued on the basis of the relative banks of the Dneiper. 

We’ll see…

Edited November 11, 2022 by alta-pete
ETA the lower Dneiper,…

[Dev]

On 10/11/2022 at 11:39, Dev said:

"Mixing" of a Missile And a Guided Aerial Bomb Makes It Possible to Strike As Far As 150km With HIMARS | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)

I have no idea what to make of this article but maybe some of you will make sense of it.

 

 

"Mixing" of a Missile And a Guided Aerial Bomb Makes It Possible to Strike As Far As 150km With HIMARS

Defense Express

ukr.defense.news@gmail.com

November 10, 2022

 

This way of hitting the rear russia’s occupying forces looks promising, but it currently exists only in advertising renders

The Polish Defence24 claims that the consortium consisting of Boeing and Saab "in the near future" hopes to receive an order for a GLSDB-type rocket designed to fire from the M142 HIMARS and M270 systems.

The article does not indicate what kind of customer it should be. But the very concept of the GLSDB ammunition is interesting here, which is basically a "hybrid" of the M26 unguided rocket and the GBU-38 SDB-I guided aerial bomb.

For the first time, the consortium consisting of Boeing and Saab presented its development under the index GLSDB in 2017. By design, this system should work like this; the M26 projectile launches the GBU-38 SDB-I aerial bomb to a certain height, which continues its flight and hits the target on a gentle trajectory.

The targeting of the aerial bomb during the final stage of the flight should be laser-guided. The developers claim that such a system is apparently capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 150km. Which is significantly higher than the indicator of 84km from GMLRS.

The unguided M26 projectile was chosen as the basis for the GLSDB because European countries have a high number of such missiles in stock, which were written off during the rejection from cluster weapons after the adoption of the "Oslo Convention" in 2008.

Or, it is quite possible that for all 5 years the GLSDB system has proved to be extremely impractical in real use. But the very vector of works on the topic of "how to compile a rocket and a guided aerial bomb" in order to increase the depth distance of damage to the enemy's rear looks quite promising.

 

 

 Would this piece of equipment do the job of reaching the Sea of Azov, the east bank of the Dnepr etc?

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

They’d be quicker going round the other way via China, the Pacific ocean, Atlantic and through Western Europe.