Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Another potential Article 5 scenario is what happens if Vlad goes after grain convoys being escorted by the Turkish navy:

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Another potential Article 5 scenario is what happens if Vlad goes after grain convoys being escorted by the Turkish navy:

 

Yea, the Turkish Black Sea assets could comfortably annihilate the remaining Russian Black Sea Squadron units, and the Russians probably couldn’t do a thing about it due to a lack of anti-ship missiles. The primary striking force of the Turkish Navy would be the G-Class upgraded Ex-Oliver Hazard Perry frigates. Effectively, any one of those ships is a match for any two or three Russian units, excluding the subs. The Russian subs are the only real threat in this scenario, but the Black Sea, especially the northern areas, is NOT a favorable environment for submarine operations. It is also, as a whole, less than half as saline as the oceans, which effectively provides less “layers” in the water for submarines to use to avoid detection in the southern (deeper) reaches of the Black Sea.

There’s also the fact that if the Russians hit a Turkish Naval vessel, a counter strike with harpoons could easily eradicate Russian capacity to service and maintain naval vessels in the Black Sea…and other Russian response options are, shall we say, limited due to the decimation of the Russian Army and Air Force. With plenty of Leopard 2’s and T-90’s, the Turkish Army would be a significant threat to Putin if he should decide to try to shut down the grain exports. Add the 355,000 active personnel, and the entire Russian southern flank would be compromised.

[Sergeant Wilson]

3 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Yea, the Turkish Black Sea assets could comfortably annihilate the remaining Russian Black Sea Squadron units, and the Russians probably couldn’t do a thing about it due to a lack of anti-ship missiles. The primary striking force of the Turkish Navy would be the G-Class upgraded Ex-Oliver Hazard Perry frigates. Effectively, any one of those ships is a match for any two or three Russian units, excluding the subs. The Russian subs are the only real threat in this scenario, but the Black Sea, especially the northern areas, is NOT a favorable environment for submarine operations. It is also, as a whole, less than half as saline as the oceans, which effectively provides less “layers” in the water for submarines to use to avoid detection in the southern (deeper) reaches of the Black Sea.

There’s also the fact that if the Russians hit a Turkish Naval vessel, a counter strike with harpoons could easily eradicate Russian capacity to service and maintain naval vessels in the Black Sea…and other Russian response options are, shall we say, limited due to the decimation of the Russian Army and Air Force. With plenty of Leopard 2’s and T-90’s, the Turkish Army would be a significant threat to Putin if he should decide to try to shut down the grain exports. Add the 355,000 active personnel, and the entire Russian southern flank would be compromised.

I know.

[welshbairn]

Putin won't attack the ships, the docks will do.

[Dev]

Again, maybe this is nonsense but, some more thoughts.

Is the Ukraine tactic to draw Russia into using up its' military hardware, including, missiles, drones, UAVs, etc etc so that it is only left with a limited number of experienced, loyal, army and even more dependent upon the likes of Iran. Then if Russia makes an "error" and lands a punch on a Nato country it opens up the opportunity for Nato to dismember what's left of Russia's more westerly territories? 

Doesn't Turkiye have its' own ambitions for the Turkic ethnic group, some of which are in now independent states e.g. Azerbaiijan and some within current Russian boundaries. A strike against the grain ships could quickly get out of hand and that would seriously limit the Russians at the Black Sea. It could be an opportunity for Turkiye, which controls the Bosphorus anyway, to rid the Black Sea of the only nation which could even challenge its' control of this Sea? That would be some prize.

Also, if Iran is drawn further into this conflict it is already faced with a significant organised opposition at home, even without the current protests. However, these protests could be used and fuelled into a full blown civil conflict which, with appropriate (not too visible) support may have a chance of disrupting the Iranian supplies to Russia or, even, of Regime change, in favour of a neutral or wholly western style of Government. This would, conveniently, dissolve the Iranian Nuclear issue at the same time. There would also be knock-on effects in e.g. Syria - although what Turkiye would think of that is another matter - but maybe that's a trade-off which it would accept for now? A degree of peace maybe a spin-off for Israel too?

That leaves the future  boundaries of Russia in  question. War reparations could mean the return of the parts of Georgia which Russia stole (as the West sat on its' hands). The handing over of Kaliningrad to the Russians might be up for significant reconsideration. Could it be Konigsburg once more? Taking this away, and Russian loss of territory and Naval emasculation in the Black Sea, would leave Russia without all year round ice-free access to the Atlantic. Maybe that's why loud explosions were recently detected in the Baltic, not only at Nordstream but also in the approaches to the St Petersburg vicinity - were they deepening the sea access in anticipation of the loss of Kaliningrad?

[Eednud]

3 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

I know.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Dev said:

Turkiye

It's Türkiye, if you want to go whole hog on it. May end up like Côte d'Ivoire, though, where it gets ignored in the anglosphere. I hope so as this Turkey to Türkiye demand is too closesly associated with Erdoğan for me to get behind it. (Sorry to have just picked out this, a complete irrelevance to the points in your comment!).

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, Dev said:

…The handing over of Kaliningrad to the Russians might be up for significant reconsideration. Could it be Konigsburg once more?

I suspect Królewiec is more likely than Königsberg.

[jagfox]

 

[ICTChris]

5 minutes ago, jagfox said:

 

There is a video kicking about of someone planting explosives on these helicopters.  

[jagfox]

4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There is a video kicking about of someone planting explosives on these helicopters.  

 

[jagfox]

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

10 hours ago, Dev said:

Again, maybe this is nonsense but, some more thoughts.

 

Never let that stop you.

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Never let that stop you.

Bold choice of feedback for the guy that can cause “technical issues”…

[ICTChris]

Enjoyed this blog on the Sevastopol attack. The modern equivalent of a boat filled with burning tar.

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/the-aspects-of-the-sevastopol-attack

[TxRover]

26 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Enjoyed this blog on the Sevastopol attack. The modern equivalent of a boat filled with burning tar.

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/the-aspects-of-the-sevastopol-attack

Link you don’t need to log in to read: http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

[DiegoDiego]

Was chatting to a Moldovan lass last night. She said that they're getting fucked by the war in Ukraine. Petrol is 50-70% more expensive there than across the border in Romania. Their average monthly wage is about half that of Romania as well.

[MazzyStar]

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by MazzyStar

[bennett]

 

 

 

[jagfox]