ICTChris Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Belarus has announced they have formed a regional group fo forces with Russia, due threats of attack from NATO. Could be that they are going to attack Ukraine from the North or that they want to threaten it to tie down Ukrainian forces in the area. Ukrainian troops in the north staged exercises recently simulating an attack from Belarus. Some points to bear in mind - Ukraine seem comfortable with their manning levels, they cancelled the latest round of drafting and all the indications from Ukrainian sources are that they feel they have enough troops to continue offensive operations. If they’ve taken potential escalation by Belarus into account that suggests they are comfortable with the threat level from North. Belarus has a very significant anti-government movements and their government sending forces into Ukraine would be met with protests. I think they are a conscript army and it’s likely that they might face difficulties with this engagement. Lukashenko is not a stupid man and he will have had reasons for avoiding direct involvement in the war so far. Overall, it’s not good news for Ukraine - it suggests another attempt to attack from the North and could result in resourcing issues. We will see how it develops. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 52 minutes ago, Artemis said: USAF surveillance drone currently flying at 51,000 feet over the Black Sea south of Crimea. Seems to have taken off from Catania in Sicily. I was in Catania last week, could have been me.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Odds on Belarus would have already joined in by now if they were going to. From time to time Lukashenko says these sorts of things to avoid making it onto Vlad's regime change list. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said: Is Belarus joining in not like Laurel helping Hardy? The potato harvest must be over? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Zelensky has had a phone call with Macron, where Macron agreed to increase French military assistance to Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Zelensky has had a phone call with Macron, where Macron agreed to increase French military assistance to Ukraine. ^^^Sending white flags. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Quote BREAKINGGerman consulate hit in Kyiv missile strike The building housing the German consulate in Kyiv was hit by a Russian missile strike, Reuters news agency quotes Germany's foreign ministry as saying. It is not clear if anyone was killed or injured in the attack, we'll bring you more information as and when it is available. BBC live blog. The new head of theatre command Sergei Surovikin seems to be leaving his trademark of making the war a war against civilians. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Polish MANPADs take down a missile. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peasy23 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 3 hours ago, jagfox said: Also in Belarus. Bet eternally jammy Wales have them in their Quali group 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn88 Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 52 minutes ago, ICTChris said: Polish MANPADs take down a missile. Good celebrations on that one tbf. Last minute winner. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The DA Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 36 minutes ago, peasy23 said: Listen to his laugh - they really are just little boys. What a waste. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dev Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 3 hours ago, ICTChris said: German Consulate in Kyiv was hit by one of today’s Russian missile strikes. OK. FWIW. Some very random thoughts, only. The Russians set out to take or destroy from the start. Now that the West has backed The Ukraine the emphasis is pure brute force by Russia. However, dragging in Belorus will not go down well with Poland, hitting the German Embassy isn't a wise move either. Then sending missiles over Moldova (presumably sending them a message that they shouldn't think that they cannot be reached). Turkey will be concerned that if Russia gets away with destroying The Ukraine then Turkey (Turkiye) will be next as it controls access to the Med. If Turkey gets directly embroiled in this War then so may other Turkic nations and the whole thing will spread. [The Turkic peoples are also within the current boundaries of Russia (according to Wiki and 2010 Census stats) with more than 11 million spread throughout Russia in about 30 ethnic sub-groups. Then there's Azerbaiijan (about 10 million) etc. Turkey/Turkiye has about 84 million.] Russia's activities have extended the front lines and the danger to countries other than The Ukraine. Is that wise? It has given the West enough reason to alter its' approach too. This could be deeply damaging for Russia both short term and long term. Maybe a truly fatal error for the future of Russia as a single state?? Within Russia there may be internal differences i.e. the Military having their noses punched by Kadyrov and Wagner. Then there's the ethnic minorities and captured Ukrainians being used as Cannon Fodder. Over-all maybe approaching the time when the UN sends in "Peace Keepers", albeit in an unusual situation as Peace-Keeping goes as there's no Peace to keep. However, a UN presence would put the Wagnerites and Kadyrov supporters on the spot, as if they attacked the UN then they, in turn, would become direct targets wherever they may be. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TxRover Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 52 minutes ago, Dev said: OK. FWIW. Some very random thoughts, only. The Russians set out to take or destroy from the start. Now that the West has backed The Ukraine the emphasis is pure brute force by Russia. However, dragging in Belorus will not go down well with Poland, hitting the German Embassy isn't a wise move either. Then sending missiles over Moldova (presumably sending them a message that they shouldn't think that they cannot be reached). Turkey will be concerned that if Russia gets away with destroying The Ukraine then Turkey (Turkiye) will be next as it controls access to the Med. If Turkey gets directly embroiled in this War then so may other Turkic nations and the whole thing will spread. [The Turkic peoples are also within the current boundaries of Russia (according to Wiki and 2010 Census stats) with more than 11 million spread throughout Russia in about 30 ethnic sub-groups. Then there's Azerbaiijan (about 10 million) etc. Turkey/Turkiye has about 84 million.] Russia's activities have extended the front lines and the danger to countries other than The Ukraine. Is that wise? It has given the West enough reason to alter its' approach too. This could be deeply damaging for Russia both short term and long term. Maybe a truly fatal error for the future of Russia as a single state?? Within Russia there may be internal differences i.e. the Military having their noses punched by Kadyrov and Wagner. Then there's the ethnic minorities and captured Ukrainians being used as Cannon Fodder. Over-all maybe approaching the time when the UN sends in "Peace Keepers", albeit in an unusual situation as Peace-Keeping goes as there's no Peace to keep. However, a UN presence would put the Wagnerites and Kadyrov supporters on the spot, as if they attacked the UN then they, in turn, would become direct targets wherever they may be. Russias response with force against civilian targets shows their frustration. It also suggests they are pretty much out of true long-range precision weapons. They are just building a nice war crimes file if they don’t win. Belarus into the fight would be a huge Russian miscalculation, as it opens a couple of new direct frontiers with NATO, plus could result in a very real siege at Kaliningrad. Belarusian forces would be slaughtered by the Ukrainians, and with more direct NATO borders in play, any missile strike to support Belarusian forces has a real chance of bringing NATO into the war. The German Consulate was, and has been, empty, so it’s annoying, and a violation, but not too problematical…but it does reinforce Russian inability to perform precision strikes. Turkey is behind the Baltics and Moldova in worrying…the Russian military vs the mercs is the next story. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 I've just seen some Ukraine flag people on Twitter asking if there is a Go Fund Me for the family of the Azeri truck driver that got blown up. Very respectful. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, TxRover said: Russias response with force against civilian targets shows their frustration. It also suggests they are pretty much out of true long-range precision weapons. They are just building a nice war crimes file if they don’t win. Kissinger and the gang illegally flattened Cambodia while losing a war fifty years ago, and yet there's no sign of him at The Hague yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Dev said: Turkey will be concerned Turkey is in NATO, has one of the largest modern tank fleets in Europe, has a fleet of over 200 F-16s and its 18-30 population is not that much smaller than Russia's. Belarus's tanks have been photographed being transported to the Donbas region via rail. Its more likely that Putin is raiding their stores to keep his war going that they actually deploy. Though they may drag their troops in as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dev Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Boo Khaki said: Bet eternally jammy Wales have them in their Quali group Scotland is improving, at last, but Wales has been "Jammy" enough to have qualified for three massive tournaments in a row! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Given superb Ukrainian trolling so far, I'm surprised they haven't declared a cheeky annexation of Kaliningrad or something. I mean it's sitting there begging for it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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