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Russian invasion of Ukraine


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22 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The complaint in blue was coming from a Russian blogger who has been spinning it as a cluster bomb munition. That's probably just a sign that its use has already been having a devastating impact.

Yeah, it's not a cluster munition, and there are ways around the land mines treaty for cluster type munitions.

The Germans developed a MLRS munition that deploys AT mines which are made compliant to the landmines treaty (it has a timer that forces it to detonate between a few hours to a few weeks, and runs on a battery that runs out after that) which some twitter accounts reckon has been deployed to Ukraine.

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Kadyrov claiming he's sending his teenage sons off to war. 

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Minor age should not interfere with the training of the defenders of our Motherland. The grandchildren of the First President of the Chechen Republic, Hero of Russia Akhmat-Khadzhi Kadyrov - Akhmat, Eli and Adam are 16, 15 and 14 years old respectively. But their military training began a long time ago, almost from an early age. It's not enough just to know how to shoot. On the basis of the RUS, they are taught how to handle various weapons, how to use them at any distance, and the theoretical foundations. I always believed that the main goal of any father is to instill piety in his sons and teach them to protect the family, the people, the Fatherland. If you want peace, prepare for war!

Akhmat, Eli and Adam are ready to use their skills in the NWO zone. And I'm not kidding. It's time to show themselves in a real fight, and this is their desire, I only welcome. Soon they will go to the front line and will be on the most difficult sections of the line of contact.

I appeal to the idle talkers who claimed that my relatives do not take part in the SVO: in the near future you will have the opportunity to take positions with the guys and personally see that AKHMAT is POWER! Show on the spot your spirit, your ideology and what you are like in general. Prove that you are at least a little bit of a man.

I am also addressing you, the couch Chechen-speaking "warriors" who criticize us and sit in front of computers in Europe. Come on, move to Ukraine, convince us that you don't wear skirts and don't hide behind them. We are convinced that even underage children will be able to crush you to smithereens, because you have neither spirit, nor honor, nor dignity. Wait!

 

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Taking this guy's pronouncements at face value would not be sensible but still interesting that he would say this:

suggests they were just testing to see if the West would cave into all the implied nuclear threats and tell the Ukrainians they had to make a deal. Problem for Vlad and his inner circle is that if you lead a regime staffed largely by glorified street thugs you are expected to follow through on your threats or you lose face big time.

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29 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Taking this guy's pronouncements at face value would not be sensible but still interesting that he would say this:

suggests they were just testing to see if the West would cave into all the implied nuclear threats and tell the Ukrainians they had to make a deal. Problem for Vlad and his inner circle is that if you lead a regime staffed largely by glorified street thugs you are expected to follow through on your threats or you lose face big time.

Looks like Putin might just be full of shit as regards all of his threats.

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36 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

"Fucks sake, da...it you don't want to buy us birthday presents next year, just SAY..."

Looks like he's sent his Dad out too..

image.png.09cf62d4af53db6f85a2b4f64d583b6c.png

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Interesting speculation that Putin might try a “nuclear demonstration” with a high altitude nuclear burst. The problem is EMP and knock-on impacts, aren’t clearly understood or predictable. https://www.chds.us/ed/resources/uploads/2010/05/2017_HS_Summit_Lane_Electromagnetic_Pulses.pdf
 

If they explode it too low, the main EMP effect is mostly neutralized and fallout drift becomes a serious concern for, mainly, Russia. If they explode it too high, they melt equipment in Russia and Belarus in addition to Ukraine…and possibly further afield, like Turkey, Moldova or Romania. There is also a nasty artificial radiation belt side-effect that might ace a shitload of satellites over the next six months or so…

On the whole, it would be a spectacularly stupid thing to do, therefore, well within Putin’s wheelhouse.

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Some of these stories are getting a bit mental. Its obviously not coming from Putin himself, but rather a desperate scramble to think up new ways how he might follow through with the nuclear threat without actually going proper nuclear.

Starting to get the (hopeful) impression that the in-private threats that have no doubt been issued by the US directly to Vlad via the batphone might have struck a chord.

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49 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Some of these stories are getting a bit mental. Its obviously not coming from Putin himself, but rather a desperate scramble to think up new ways how he might follow through with the nuclear threat without actually going proper nuclear.

Starting to get the (hopeful) impression that the in-private threats that have no doubt been issued by the US directly to Vlad via the batphone might have struck a chord.
 

If he ever actually does use Nuclear weapons they are not going to be used on Ukraine.

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Has McBookie got a nuclear bomb first half/second half odds on the go yet?
The other day I saw it trading at about 13% the chance of a nuclear non-test firing somewhere in the world in the next twelve months.
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This guy is normally sensible and level-headed on these matters:

Image

Safe to say that would be a major development. The last open rail link from Russia into the north of Luhansk oblast is at Troitske and Starobilsk. Anybody suggesting a few weeks back that there was a possibility of the Ukrainians getting anywhere near that by the end of October would no doubt have been laughed at.

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