Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

 

[LongTimeLurker]

39 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

When you see the number of missile hits the Kherson bridge took without doing anything like that much damage, it makes me think another method was involved, unless this bridge is particularly vulnerable.

The HIMARS missiles used on the Kherson bridge don't have the range so inherently has to be a larger longer range missile if that's how it was done. Also talk of Kerch bridge being built using a less sturdy approach.

[Dev]

28 minutes ago, peasy23 said:

 

As if the Russians needed an excuse to "officially" declare War !

If what is speculated upon on this thread is near the truth, then this could be an "in-house" job designed to give the Russians the excuse to completely lose it and go nuke. The bridge doesn't look as though both road carriageways were affected and the rail line, presumably, is fixable quickly. This line of communications isn't going to be out of action for very long.

Looks suspiciously like a Russian job to me FWIW.

[Hedgecutter]

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

 

They can no doubt solve that last bit by simply driving along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov via Berdyansk and Mariupol but that puts road traffic a lot closer to HIMARS and other missile systems the Ukrainians have at their disposal.

Or diversions via the A985 Kinkardinsky Bridge.

[LongTimeLurker]

Think it's abundantly clear that Ukraine did this:

 

[ICTChris]

Russian media claiming it was a truck bomb, they have published footage of the truck being checked at security.

 

[Clown Job]

6 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Russian media claiming it was a truck bomb, they have published footage of the truck being checked at security.

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

[peasy23]

[Dev]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think it's abundantly clear that Ukraine did this:

 

Maybe it's my mistrust of the Russians and their motives.

I wish the bridge was going to be wholly out of action and for a long time. My guess is that the two sections of bridge which came down can be replaced without too much difficulty provided their supports weren't damaged. Presumably the rail line has fire rather than explosives damage with metalwork fixable relatively quickly.

Damage to the bridge supports - all at the same point - would have made repair a longer job. Winter coming up will, presumably, help to add to the time-scale of repairs.

[LongTimeLurker]

The rail bridge is also double track so doubt that's out of commission for too long unfortunately. The road bridge appears to have been the main target though. If it was ballistic missiles rather than the lorry, there's probably not much Russians can do to prevent a repeat as happened with the bridge over the Dniepr near Kherson.

Edited October 8, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[Bairnardo]

It's hard not to chuckle at the various Russians calling this out as an "act of War" etc.

[TxRover]

45 minutes ago, Dev said:

Maybe it's my mistrust of the Russians and their motives.

I wish the bridge was going to be wholly out of action and for a long time. My guess is that the two sections of bridge which came down can be replaced without too much difficulty provided their supports weren't damaged. Presumably the rail line has fire rather than explosives damage with metalwork fixable relatively quickly.

Damage to the bridge supports - all at the same point - would have made repair a longer job. Winter coming up will, presumably, help to add to the time-scale of repairs.

1) Russian false flag is plausible, but no explicit evidence at this point. While a truck bomb would be quite plausible, the explosion on the rail span at the same relative location makes it much more plausible that it was planted explosives, unless it was caused by debris from the roadway explosion. On the other hand, the roadway damage certainly suggests an explosion on top of the span, not below it.

2) Ukrainians do have some unclear capacity to reach that far with missiles, but the damage/explosions look far more likely to be explosives detonated at either a fixed place or via a vehicle(s).

3) The train fire is interesting, as the rail span is distinct from the involved one of the two bridge spans, and there appears to be an intact road span still between two damaged spans. That doesn’t prohibit debris causing the rail fire, but makes it seem a bit more unlikely.

 

If it’s Russian, the mechanics of the same location, two explosion, are pretty easy. If it’s Ukrainian, perhaps a truck bomb followed by a suicide drone strike on a tanker car train? The bothersome bit on the train is even an exploding train doesn’t stop on a dime…it travels some distance as it stops. That’s why an explosion on the roadway, tossing burning debris on a train, wouldn’t cause the train to stop and burn at the exact same spot.

As for damage, the road span is likely a pretty “simple” repair, with the adjacent span likely mostly usable already…if the train doesn’t go boom big time. The rail span is much more difficult to repair. The weight capacity of a rail bridge is enormous, and the fire will have ruined, at a minimum, several spans between supports that will have to be completely replaced. If the supports themselves are damaged, they would likely have to be completely replaced, adding to the time. In both cases, the climate is not favorable to quick repair, as the Soviets found in 1945 when a previous bridge, built quickly and poorly, was destroyed by ice flows. Of the two, the rail loss is more critical to Russian supply lines.

Edited October 8, 2022 by TxRover

[TxRover]

Russian news reporting rail traffic restarting now, so despite the obvious heat applied to at least one support and two spans, they have adjudged the rail line usable. It will be interesting if they use it at full or a reduced carrying capacity. Roadway traffic to be restarted on the single remaining span shortly too…I think I’d decline to use either.

 

Edit: Interfax also reporting confirmation is was a truck bomb, and that debris set alight several train cars on the adjacent span.

 

Second edit: Russia now reporting on three deaths in the truck explosion…my false flag antenna are twitching more, especially as to why a train was idle on the bridge abeam where the explosion took place. It couldn’t have stopped quickly enough to have the fire that well aligned. It certainly plays to Putin’s narrative of a terrorist state he’s fighting.

Edited October 8, 2022 by TxRover

[Newbornbairn]

 

[welshbairn]

The train explosion might have been a happy coincidence or exceptional timing. I hope the guy driving the lorry was following a friendly Lada to whisk him away, the deaths could be from other vehicles caught in the blast. 

[LongTimeLurker]

Think it had to be a suicide mission if the lorry was involved. What seems to contradict that though is that the lorry was inspected before starting to cross and the first clip below (ignoring the drivel tweeted as accompanying text) shows towards the end that there are two sections of downed bridge between a section that appears OK:

 

[ICTChris]

Seems like a train has just crossed the Kerch bridge, so at least one line is open.

[RossBFaeDundee]

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

10 hours ago, Dev said:

The bridge doesn't look as though both road carriageways were affected and the rail line, presumably, is fixable quickly.