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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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Interesting speculation that Putin might try a “nuclear demonstration” with a high altitude nuclear burst. The problem is EMP and knock-on impacts, aren’t clearly understood or predictable. https://www.chds.us/ed/resources/uploads/2010/05/2017_HS_Summit_Lane_Electromagnetic_Pulses.pdf
 

If they explode it too low, the main EMP effect is mostly neutralized and fallout drift becomes a serious concern for, mainly, Russia. If they explode it too high, they melt equipment in Russia and Belarus in addition to Ukraine…and possibly further afield, like Turkey, Moldova or Romania. There is also a nasty artificial radiation belt side-effect that might ace a shitload of satellites over the next six months or so…

On the whole, it would be a spectacularly stupid thing to do, therefore, well within Putin’s wheelhouse.

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Some of these stories are getting a bit mental. Its obviously not coming from Putin himself, but rather a desperate scramble to think up new ways how he might follow through with the nuclear threat without actually going proper nuclear.

Starting to get the (hopeful) impression that the in-private threats that have no doubt been issued by the US directly to Vlad via the batphone might have struck a chord.

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49 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Some of these stories are getting a bit mental. Its obviously not coming from Putin himself, but rather a desperate scramble to think up new ways how he might follow through with the nuclear threat without actually going proper nuclear.

Starting to get the (hopeful) impression that the in-private threats that have no doubt been issued by the US directly to Vlad via the batphone might have struck a chord.
 

If he ever actually does use Nuclear weapons they are not going to be used on Ukraine.

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This guy is normally sensible and level-headed on these matters:

Image

Safe to say that would be a major development. The last open rail link from Russia into the north of Luhansk oblast is at Troitske and Starobilsk. Anybody suggesting a few weeks back that there was a possibility of the Ukrainians getting anywhere near that by the end of October would no doubt have been laughed at.

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41 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

This guy is normally sensible and level-headed on these matters:

Image

Safe to say that would be a major development. The last open rail link from Russia into the north of Luhansk oblast is at Troitske and Starobilsk. Anybody suggesting a few weeks back that there was a possibility of the Ukrainians getting anywhere near that by the end of October would no doubt have been laughed at.

Reaching Svatove would place the whole length of that rail link within Ukrainian HIMARS range, and just beyond tube artillery range.

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25 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:
6 hours ago, welshbairn said:
Looks like he's sent his Dad out too..
image.png.09cf62d4af53db6f85a2b4f64d583b6c.png

Danny McGrain is looking well !

Yes, he's the one in the middle.

Blackbeard has a funny nose tattoo.

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