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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

True, but for all the public statements they seemed to have prepared pretty well, in the North and East anyway. Hard to know what Zelensky really thought, could be he didn't want to do or say anything that Russia could use as an excuse for invasion.

There was a good series in one of the US papers that reviewed the start of the war. Essentially, the Ukrainian intelligence service advised Zelensky that Russia wouldn’t invade because they assessed that the force was too small and that they wouldn’t achieve their goals. The US intelligence services said that despite this the invasion was going to happen anyway. You have to assume the US had access to high level people in the Russian intelligence and military that Ukrainian spooks didn’t.

 

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5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You and @Todd_is_God have repeatedly claimed the West should have negotiated with Putin to avert war at the start of this year.

I'm asking you how you think they could possibly have reasoned with a man who quotes Jesus and Satanism in speeches. 😂

If you can't answer, that's fine.

I don't answer all of your utterly stupid, non-sequitur points on request. 

Do we really have to go through Western politicians' references to sky fairies since Putin became Russian president? The entire neocon crusade into the Middle East was couched far more in religious terms than 'let's loot the oil lads'. Bush and Blair were holding fucking prayer policy sessions FFS.

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1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

There was a good series in one of the US papers that reviewed the start of the war. Essentially, the Ukrainian intelligence service advised Zelensky that Russia wouldn’t invade because they assessed that the force was too small and that they wouldn’t achieve their goals. The US intelligence services said that despite this the invasion was going to happen anyway. You have to assume the US had access to high level people in the Russian intelligence and military that Ukrainian spooks didn’t.

 

There was talk from the Ukrainian side of betrayal by some of their key people supposed to be organizing the Southern defence against Russian forces coming up from Crimea. Could just be blame shifting but they seem to have faced little resistance.

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All this is showing Putin’s gamble on mobilization is failing. A mobilization, to be effective, requires those being mobilized to be committed/willing to die for to the cause. Examples: Russia in WWII…committed and won, U.S. in Vietnam…not committed (at the low levels) and lost. Already throwing untrained recruits into the front lines is a recipe for disaster, and if the Ukrainians can hold back their fury and encourage those new, scared and unmotivated troops to surrender, Putin’s gamble will implode in a truly  spectacular manner. By selected mostly ethnic groups to target for “drafting”, he is trying to solve two problems, but is instead worsening one of them. While the resistance to his orders and rules will be reduced by this strategy, his army is weakened rather than strengthened.

Already the contract soldiers are showing a willingness to run rather than stand, the best units of the Russian army have been rendered combat ineffective, and older and less suitable equipment is being deployed against more and newer equipment in the other side. This latest bloodbath would have been much worse if the UAF was involved, but the Russians still have some air defences in place…for now.

Reports of the use of Surface-to-Air missiles as poorly directed artillery likely mean that older AA units are being deployed, and are likely ineffective in the AA role, so are being seconded as artillery to preserve their depleted supply’s of shells. The fact these unit were deployed also suggests their most modern AA units are now also low on ammunition, which could make thing a whole order of magnitude worse for the Russian army.

Additionally, an unplanned, forced retreat can only be conducted effectively with the profligate use of munitions, something increasingly beyond Russian capacity.

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Kadyrov has raged against the loss of Lyman on Telegram and has said Outin should declare martial law and use low yield nuclear weapons. Probably the first person within the Kremlin hierarchy to make a specific public call to use nuclear weapons.   

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14 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Kadyrov has raged against the loss of Lyman on Telegram and has said Outin should declare martial law and use low yield nuclear weapons. Probably the first person within the Kremlin hierarchy to make a specific public call to use nuclear weapons.   

Prigozhin, ex-con, millionaire and owner of Wagner, has praised Kadyrov for his attacks on the Russian general staff.

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There are signs of two voices emerging in the Kremlin over nukes, some like Medvedev upping the threats and rhetoric, others like Peskov trying to tone it down and saying it's not going to happen. I doubt anyone takes any notice of Kadyrov though.

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Chechnya is de facto independent with a large annual subsidy to Kadyrov's patronage network used to bribe them into not pushing to make it de jure and providing troops for Russia's imperial escapades when needed. He's always going to play the uber-patriot in other words but if the gravy train ever stops...

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1 minute ago, MONKMAN said:

Airfield at Sevastopol is currently on fire, with explosions being seen from distance. 
Official statement from Russia;  a plane has overshot and skidded off the runway. 

There is video of this happening, it looks like a plane did come off the runway. Very large explosion and fire for a single plane though, perhaps had ammunition cargo.

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2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Kadyrov has raged against the loss of Lyman on Telegram and has said Outin should declare martial law and use low yield nuclear weapons. Probably the first person within the Kremlin hierarchy to make a specific public call to use nuclear weapons.   

A whole lot of Russian milbloggers seem to be unusually incensed at this. Many were talking about the relief arriving hours before it was obvious the town had fallen. Kadyrov rages at Lapin the Central Military District commander (with the oh so ironic accusation of nepotism) while Rybar is saying he would be a scapegoat. Russian speakers are saying the who space is full of acrimony. 

 

Grozev hints he does not think this came from Kaydrov.

 

Google translate (not by me)

I have always said: there is nothing better than the voiced truth, albeit bitter, offensive, but the truth. This is the only way to move forward. Therefore, I cannot remain silent about what happened in Krasny Liman. The defense of this section was led by the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin. The same Lapin, who received the star of the Hero of Russia for the capture of Lisichansk, although de facto he was not there and was not around. Lapin was also given over to the troops of the Western Military District. The colonel-general deployed mobilized fighters from the LPR and other units on all frontiers of the Liman direction, but did not provide them with the necessary communications, interaction and the supply of ammunition. Two weeks ago, Major General Commander of the Akhmat Special Forces, my dear BROTHER Apty Alaudinov, personally reported to me that our fighters could become an easy target. In turn, I informed Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, about the danger. But the general assured me that he had no doubts about Lapin's leadership talent and did not believe that a retreat was possible in Krasny Liman and its environs. A week later, Lapin moves his headquarters to Starobelsk, a hundred kilometers from his subordinates, while he himself sits in Lugansk. How can you quickly manage units, being 150 km away from them? Due to the lack of elementary military logistics, today we have left several settlements and a large piece of territory. It's not a shame that Lapin is mediocre. And the fact that he is covered at the top by the leaders in the General Staff. If I had my way, I would have demoted Lapin to the rank of private, would have deprived him of his awards and, with a machine gun in his hands, would have sent him to the front lines to wash away my shame with blood. Army nepotism will not lead to good. In the army, it is necessary to appoint people of a strong character, courageous, principled, who worry about their fighters, who tear their teeth for their soldier, who know that a subordinate cannot be left without help and support. There is no place for nepotism in the army, especially in difficult times. We didn't have enough raisins? Even then, I said: shoot at the enemy’s military concentration in the Izyum captured by the Nazis, especially since our artillery at that time had such an opportunity. They would have done away with the main Satanists and fascists at once. We must carry out NWO in the full sense of the word, and not flirt. Use every opportunity and every weapon to defend OUR territory. Donetsk is still being shelled. Residents of the joined 4 territories want to be protected. I don't know what the RF Ministry of Defense reports to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but in my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons. It is not necessary to take every decision with an eye on the Western American community - it has already said so and done a lot against us. Yesterday there was a parade in Izyum, today a flag in Liman, and what tomorrow? Everything would be fine if it weren't so bad.

 

Edited by dorlomin
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