Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dorlomin]

Story doing the rounds is the mobiks are not even getting dog tags. Dont know how widespread that is but it means if they fall in combat, their corpse will be unidentified unless its recovered on the spot. 

If they do not have proper footwear and proper training they will be hit hard by trenchfoot once they start working in the mud. Some might know trench foot as the wrinkled skin you get when you soak your feet or hands in a bath for a while. But if it keeps wet over days in the cold then the skin starts dying and you get infections, ulcers, blisters and without treatment gangrene can set in. The NCOs are supposed to be pretty strict on making sure soldiers keep changing socks, keep their feet dry and perform daily inspections, some might have seen this in Full Metal Jacket. Thing is the staggering state of the Russian army and this may not happen with the reservists. 

Being stuck in cold wet trenches will make them vulnerable to hypothermia. Good military grade clothing should prevent this, unless you become soaked and are unable to dry. 

As temperatures drop below zero, the water freezes up so the wet is no longer a problem but then extremities like noses, eye lids, finger tips etc become vulnerable to frostbite. 

These should not be problems for a modern army. But the mobik volksstrum look more a rabble than an army. 

[MONKMAN]

Russia sending reinforcements to Lyman, it's going to be bloodbath.  

[Melanius Mullarkey]

9 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Story doing the rounds is the mobiks are not even getting dog tags. Dont know how widespread that is but it means if they fall in combat, their corpse will be unidentified unless its recovered on the spot. 

If they do not have proper footwear and proper training they will be hit hard by trenchfoot once they start working in the mud. Some might know trench foot as the wrinkled skin you get when you soak your feet or hands in a bath for a while. But if it keeps wet over days in the cold then the skin starts dying and you get infections, ulcers, blisters and without treatment gangrene can set in. The NCOs are supposed to be pretty strict on making sure soldiers keep changing socks, keep their feet dry and perform daily inspections, some might have seen this in Full Metal Jacket. Thing is the staggering state of the Russian army and this may not happen with the reservists. 

Being stuck in cold wet trenches will make them vulnerable to hypothermia. Good military grade clothing should prevent this, unless you become soaked and are unable to dry. 

As temperatures drop below zero, the water freezes up so the wet is no longer a problem but then extremities like noses, eye lids, finger tips etc become vulnerable to frostbite. 

These should not be problems for a modern army. But the mobik volksstrum look more a rabble than an army. 

Almost as bad as working alongside the Prof by the sounds of it. 

[welshbairn]

WarGonzo's well away from the front line in Lyman I see.

[welshbairn]

Doesn't sound like much fun for the new conscripts.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/28/honestly-they-re-all-going-to-die-there

[Bairnardo]

It's great to read about Ukranian successes, and the shift in momentum, the possibility that Ukraine could win this war seemingly going from pie in the sky to a very good chance now, but it is really sad to hear about these mobilised "soldiers" being shovelled into the firing line. Its like we have gone back centuries, with young men being sacrificed at the altar of one man's vanity. There's no pleasure to be derived from the inevitable massacre of these men. It's shaping up to be one of the saddest examples of human callousness of our times.

Theres no wolf at the door. This isn't Stalingrad, these guys are effectively being exterminated by their own state. What a fucking sad waste of life

[Elixir]

5 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Kremlin rolling back a bit on nuclear threats.

Presumably that means more than Ukraine kicking them out of Kherson.

‘Irresponsible’: Kremlin on remarks on nuclear escalation

Shat it after they were told in no uncertain terms that they would be sent back to the stone age if they even think about it IMO.

[Elixir]

This concert in Moscow is like the shittest Eurovision/Live Aid ever.

[Dev]

8 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

It's great to read about Ukranian successes, and the shift in momentum, the possibility that Ukraine could win this war seemingly going from pie in the sky to a very good chance now, but it is really sad to hear about these mobilised "soldiers" being shovelled into the firing line. Its like we have gone back centuries, with young men being sacrificed at the altar of one man's vanity. There's no pleasure to be derived from the inevitable massacre of these men. It's shaping up to be one of the saddest examples of human callousness of our times.

Theres no wolf at the door. This isn't Stalingrad, these guys are effectively being exterminated by their own state. What a fucking sad waste of life

This is why the Ukrainians have today appealed for rebellion from the ethnic minorities in Russia. You can bet that any new ethnic conscripts who survive Lyman will be cared for in accordance with the Geneva Convention etc etc. The Russians won't want the rest to go home at all if they are going to tell their families and friends about what has been going on in their names. Whatever happens the outlook looks bleak for regular Russian servicemen caught up in Lyman.

Ukraine in Nato would be deadly serious for everyone but there may be no alternative to drastic actions leading to great damage and Russia won't be exempt from that. If Russia in the name of Putin and his mates are not stopped once and for all then Europe is in for trouble for generations to come. Time, literally and sadly, to bite this bullet and to put an end to this criminal gangster regime. Putin may think he can bluff his way out of this alive - let's hope he is found to be mistaken before too long!

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, dorlomin said:

Story doing the rounds is the mobiks are not even getting dog tags. Dont know how widespread that is but it means if they fall in combat, their corpse will be unidentified unless its recovered on the spot. 

If they do not have proper footwear and proper training they will be hit hard by trenchfoot once they start working in the mud. Some might know trench foot as the wrinkled skin you get when you soak your feet or hands in a bath for a while. But if it keeps wet over days in the cold then the skin starts dying and you get infections, ulcers, blisters and without treatment gangrene can set in. The NCOs are supposed to be pretty strict on making sure soldiers keep changing socks, keep their feet dry and perform daily inspections, some might have seen this in Full Metal Jacket. Thing is the staggering state of the Russian army and this may not happen with the reservists. 

Being stuck in cold wet trenches will make them vulnerable to hypothermia. Good military grade clothing should prevent this, unless you become soaked and are unable to dry. 

As temperatures drop below zero, the water freezes up so the wet is no longer a problem but then extremities like noses, eye lids, finger tips etc become vulnerable to frostbite. 

These should not be problems for a modern army. But the mobik volksstrum look more a rabble than an army. 

A draftee was given these.

 

[Elixir]

Ukraine won't be let into NATO so I'm not sure what Zelensky is hoping to achieve. I imagine they'll be left pending until the conflict is over as outright rejecting it would simply make warnings to Moscow about potential retaliations (i.e. for tactical nuke usage) appear hollow.

[DiegoDiego]

It's great to read about Ukranian successes, and the shift in momentum, the possibility that Ukraine could win this war seemingly going from pie in the sky to a very good chance now, but it is really sad to hear about these mobilised "soldiers" being shovelled into the firing line. Its like we have gone back centuries, with young men being sacrificed at the altar of one man's vanity. There's no pleasure to be derived from the inevitable massacre of these men. It's shaping up to be one of the saddest examples of human callousness of our times.

Theres no wolf at the door. This isn't Stalingrad, these guys are effectively being exterminated by their own state. What a fucking sad waste of life

I read two interesting consequences of the apparent imminent slaughter of young Russian citizens.

1) They are exactly the demographic which would be expected to make the bulk of any serious protests against a government. So lots of them dying is good for Putin's chances of staying in power in that regard (though bad in others of course).

2) They are exactly the demographic which is needed to procreate their way out of a seemingly terminal demographic problem for Russia. 50k or whatever it may be of them meeting their end is not great news for Russia's future.

Regardless of what happens in the medium term, things look bleak for Russia's position in the global pecking order in the long term. Their actions at the moment don't seem too different from the wasps in my garden. They know the end is nigh, so are behaving like arseholes and invading my flat.

[Bairnardo]

I read two interesting consequences of the apparent imminent slaughter of young Russian citizens.

1) They are exactly the demographic which would be expected to make the bulk of any serious protests against a government. So lots of them dying is good for Putin's chances of staying in power in that regard (though bad in others of course).

2) They are exactly the demographic which is needed to procreate their way out of a seemingly terminal demographic problem for Russia. 50k or whatever it may be of them meeting their end is not great news for Russia's future.

Regardless of what happens in the medium term, things look bleak for Russia's position in the global pecking order in the long term. Their actions at the moment don't seem too different from the wasps in my garden. They know the end is nigh, so are behaving like arseholes and invading my flat.

I wonder how many of these guys it will take to sow enough discord in the army though that the military turning on Vlad becomes the most likely downfall for him.

I mean, I'm no historian, but strongmen need the military onside to stay strong, and when they lose it, they are fucked.

Injecting into his army a huge number of non soldiers who do not want to be there and who might just know a little bit more about the nature of the conflict than the guys they go into Ukraine to support.... Seems like a powderkeg tbh.

I'm sure it's on the go already, but Ukraine and the world at large really, need to be pouring a huge effort into convincing these guys that laying down their arms is the best and only way to ensure they live another day. Their bravest option is to save their homeland from itself.

[welshbairn]

The Russian army in WW1 must be a bit of a worry for Putin, history buff that he is. Didn't end well for the Tsar, sending out badly equipped troops with barely any medical back up against a modern army. 

. 

[vikingTON]

54 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The Russian army in WW1 must be a bit of a worry for Putin, history buff that he is. Didn't end well for the Tsar, sending out badly equipped troops with barely any medical back up against a modern army. 

The Russians obliterated the Austro-Hungarians (and quite comfortably handled the Ottomans - unlike multiple British humiliations) during the First World War. They certainly got a pasting from the Germans, but then so did Britain and France until the summer of 1918.

Saint Petersburg was in the middle of a strike of 80,000 workers when the war crisis broke in July 1914. 1500 government officials were killed by political terrorism under Stolypin's ~five years in government alone. 

There's simply no genuine parallel between the repressive capacity - as well as ruthlessness - of a modern autocratic state to the exercise in wishful thinking that was Tsarist Russia.

[Tony Ferrino]

9 minutes ago, virginton said:

The Russians obliterated the Austro-Hungarians (and quite comfortably handled the Ottomans - unlike multiple British humiliations) during the First World War. They certainly got a pasting from the Germans, but then so did Britain and France until the summer of 1918.

Saint Petersburg was in the middle of a strike of 80,000 workers when the war crisis broke in July 1914. 1500 government officials were killed by political terrorism under Stolypin's ~five years in government alone. 

There's simply no genuine parallel between the repressive capacity - as well as ruthlessness - of a modern autocratic state to the exercise in wishful thinking that was Tsarist Russia.

OK, pipe down Alanis.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Tony Ferrino

[ICTChris]

I would say there is zero chance of the Armed Forces overthrowing Putin. They aren’t exactly over-encumbered with powerful generals who command the respect of the troops. None of them seem to have a power base, although appearances can be deceptive and we can’t really know.

The state security apparatus remains intact and they are the real power. Again it seems Putin is firmly in control of them, with the same caveats as above.

The only senior political figure in Russia that has a power base is Kadyrov. He has thousands of troops, he hoovers up Russian money and doesn’t contribute much. He does what he wants - he basically said they wouldn’t do a mobilisation in Chechnya and no-one did anything. However, he isn’t a threat as his fate is tied to Putin. He could never be a leader of Russia due to his background.

Edited September 30, 2022 by ICTChris

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

I wonder how many of these guys it will take to sow enough discord in the army though that the military turning on Vlad becomes the most likely downfall for him.

I mean, I'm no historian, but strongmen need the military onside to stay strong, and when they lose it, they are fucked.

Injecting into his army a huge number of non soldiers who do not want to be there and who might just know a little bit more about the nature of the conflict than the guys they go into Ukraine to support.... Seems like a powderkeg tbh.

The people who make the decisions about army loyalty are the generals not the conscripts. The army isn't even currently required to maintain public order within Russia - which is where ordinary soldiers could play some role. But even under those conditions, unless a significant chunk of the army generals also switch sides to an as yet non-existent alternative then any mutiny of ordinary soldiers is bound to fail. 

Syria should be an instructive lesson in how a far weaker regime can still pull through despite a significant army defection. It is all utterly wishful thinking to expect the Russian state to collapse through army mutiny. 

[ICTChris]

On the great liberating mission

[welshbairn]

Since WW1 has been rubbished as an analogy, how about WW2? Russia was initially smashed by Germany, rebuilt with the help of Western supplies and threw millions of conscripts at the Germans, eventually succeeding at a huge cost. Who's going to supply the parts they need now? Putin's put all the energy and raw materials revenue into making his ex KBG pals rich beyond avarice, no micro electronics industry, none of the essentials for a modern military apart from raw steel, like back in WW2. Shopping in the West has been closed off, and for some reason China has decided not to fill the void. Apparently his guided missile manufacturers have been reduced to importing fridges and washing machines to cannibalise the circuit boards and chips.