Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Clown Job]

39 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Summary in the FT of the potential impact of Russian mobilisation on the war. While the mobilised troops are unlikely to be very effective the addition of even minimally trained troops could have an impact .

https://www.ft.com/content/87e3ed67-0f31-49e2-a49d-5b49a12c39ec

 

[jagfox]

Interesting thread regarding what we see as the reasoning behind referenda of occupied territories.

 

[ICTChris]

A couple of points about the Russian mobilisation.

While Putin and Shiogu both said in their broadcasts that this was a partial mobilsation of reservists with specialist skills, the decree did not say that only reservists will be mobilised.  Russia also doesn't have reservists the way we do in the UK - there isn't an Army reserve/TA organisation where people train regularly and maintain their skills etc.

From what can be seen, the mobilisation is not focusing on people who have previously served in the military, local officials are scooping up people.  Students are being taken from classes to sign up as well as men who are at the very limitations of the age limit.  There have been cases of men in their early 60s being taken.  Part of this is bureacratic - the regional authorities are charged with providing a target number of draftees, once that is done then it's someone elses problem if they are all decrepit and don't know which end of the gun to point at the enemy.  

The place to watch I think is Dagestan.  The protests there are widespread and Dagestani civilians have taken heavy casualties in the war.  There is also a history of insurgency there, plenty of weapons among the population.  There are protests planned for coming days in large cities, it could get ugly.

ETA Peskov has said today that some regions are drafting more people than they should and that "instaces of deviation from the required criteria are being fixed".  Hmm.

Also, I saw someone mention Chechnya earlier in the thread - Chechnya is somewhat different from other regions in that it's forces are really seperate and out of the command structure of other Russian forces.  Kadyrov has basically been press ganging people who haven't signed up already but in response to the mobilisation has said he won't mobilise anyone in he Chechen republic because they've already sent troops.  

Edited September 26, 2022 by ICTChris

[welshbairn]

Further bad news for the Crimean Tatars if this and the other allegations are true.

Quote

Ukraine’s Armed Forces general staff has claimed some Russian conscripts from the Kremlin’s mass mobilisation are being sent directly to the frontlines in Ukraine without training.

Amid warnings from the UK’s Ministry of Defence and other experts that many of those conscripted were likely to get little meaningful training – and faced the risk of “high rates of attrition” when deployed – men recently mobilised by pro-Russian occupation officials in Ukraine were also being readied for the frontline.

Those included newly-drafted personnel in Crimea as well as conscripts in the Luhansk region who have received draft summonses in recent days.

The latest moves came as it was reported that Russia has also closed its border to occupied areas of Ukraine with the neighbouring Rostov region for entry and exit ordering locals to appear at military enlistment offices within three days

Guardian live page.

[ICTChris]

What the hell is going on in this video

 

 

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

What the hell is going on in this video

 

 

The bucket heid lad standing on the Russian flag looked like he was trying to get his knob out.

[Hillonearth]

1 minute ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said:

The bucket heid lad standing on the Russian flag looked like he was trying to get his knob out.

I think he was momentarily debating whether to start up his own personal Nordstream all over it.

[ICTChris]

Russia have sent troops to the border crossing into Georgia to stop draft eligible men crossing.

Edited September 26, 2022 by ICTChris

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, TheScarf said:

I mean I think it's pretty much guaranteed Russia will have one nuclear attack then be wiped out from all sides, literally.

It’s an interesting idea, but has a few flaws:

- The response to a tactical nuclear strike by Russia would be conventional, and likely from the United States.

- The explicit statement by the U.S. that Putin has had it explained to him exactly what will happen if he used WMD’s suggests that the world, as a whole, is generally lined up behind this plan.

- Any nuclear response to a Russian tac nuke would be a very dangerous gamble by whichever side launched the response. Even if it was clear that the response was launched on behalf of “the world”, Putin is plenty capable of lashing out with a counter-strike against anyone but the U.S., and perhaps China and France. The U.K.’s deployed deterrent force is likely too small to stop Putin, likewise for India, Pakistan or Israel (who has enough other problems), who would all have reach issues.

- I suspect the plan for response to a Russian tac nuke would be designed to show Russians that if Putin isn’t removed, Russia will be subject to destruction…which is a careful balancing act, because that’s exactly what we don’t want to happen. Exactly what the strike would encompass is difficult to guess, but it would likely be an attack on a military target on the Russian border with the occupied territories, designed to avoid civilian casualties to the extent possible. On that basis, and the fact it would be a U.S. strike, a cruise missile salvo at Novorossiysk military facilities seems plausible.

- A breakup of he Russian Federation would be the worst case scenario for all but the oligarchs and ultra-rich. As swarth of strongman run states from the Urals to the Pacific would create a number of issues, and would almost certainly involve the “loss” of some WMD’s.

- The calculus seems to be that a removal of Putin would also involve the weakening of the oligarchs power in Russia, and possibly allow a more representative government to flourish in the area. I have my doubts on this front. However, a general assault on Russia from “all sides” would simply ensure the splintering that very few desire (see also: Iraq, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and all those lovely ‘Stan’s in Russia’s southern tier.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, oaksoft said:

 

I'm assuming a world leading historian such as yourself knows the difference between "recruits" and "forceably enlists by turning up at their houses and strong-arming them into a bus under threat of physical violence and/or imprisonment".

Well no because the second act is exactly how roughly 99% of states have filled the ranks of their armies throughout human history - minus the bus of course. 

It's also a strong historical continuity within Russia itself - the (major) wars of the Tsar as well as the Second World War were not fought by professionally recruited, trained and paid professional forces. 

[vikingTON]

11 hours ago, Loonytoons said:

Russia is sticking poorly trained, poorly equipped ethnic minorities on the front line against a rapidly improving well trained and better equipped foe.  They really aren't putting the ethnic Russians there in great numbers and at the first hint of it, those recruits are trying to scuttle out of it.

Even if this were all true, it still wouldn't come close to an act of genocide against Crimean Tatars or any other group though. It's really that straightforward. 

[Thane of Cawdor]

Bit of pre-emptive fragging? Bad enough being a squaddie and having Ukrainians trying to kill you; f**k being a Russian officer ordering unwilling 'recruits' to put their lives at risk.

A draft officer was shot in Ust-Ilimsk, a town of about 85,000 people in the Irkutsk region in Siberia. Video showed him being shot at close range by another man dressed in camouflage clothing as other potential draftees fled the room.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/russia-man-shoots-commander-drafting-residents-for-war-in-ukraine

Edited September 26, 2022 by Thane of Cawdor
Ineptitude

[ICTChris]

16 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

Bit of pre-emptive fragging? Bad enough being a squaddie and having Ukrainians trying to kill you; f**k being a Russian officer ordering unwilling 'recruits' to put their lives at risk.

A draft officer was shot in Ust-Ilimsk, a town of about 85,000 people in the Irkutsk region in Siberia. Video showed him being shot at close range by another man dressed in camouflage clothing as other potential draftees fled the room.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/26/russia-man-shoots-commander-drafting-residents-for-war-in-ukraine

They've caught the guy, he hadn't been called for the draft.  He did it because they drafted his best mate.

Sounds like a good mate.

[beefybake]

21 hours ago, virginton said:

Relocation wouldn't be genocide either. I think we should continue to use international law and consequent precise dictionaries to define this rather important term, rather than a political spin doctor. 

Or you.

[DiegoDiego]

They've caught the guy, he hadn't been called for the draft.  He did it because they drafted his best mate.
Sounds like a good mate.

I'm sure many men in the UK would have done the same for their "best mate" back in the days when it wasn't advisable to be openly homosexual.

[ICTChris]

10 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

They've caught the guy, he hadn't been called for the draft.  He did it because they drafted his best mate.
Sounds like a good mate.

I'm sure many men in the UK would have done the same for their "best mate" back in the days when it wasn't advisable to be openly homosexual.

The Love That Dare Not Speak It's Name. Blows Away The Military Commisar.

[The DA]

9 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The Love That Dare Not Speak It's Name. Blows Away The Military Commisar.

I'm glad you scored out that extraneous apostrophe!

[dirty dingus]

This is a good piece on the Hasidic Jews and their pilgrimage to Uman. This is also an interesting channel for front line reporting, it is obviously a very pro Ukrainian perspective but it's good to hear the views of the people from the disputed territory and the guys on the front line. 

[NorthernLights]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63036991

Maybe he fancied signing up for the front lines?

[LongTimeLurker]

Igor's no happy:

always find it amusing how a right wing Russian nationalist maniac is telling Russian people the unvarnished truth of what is actually going on complete with phrases like "cretinism" to describe Russian military strategy.