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Russian invasion of Ukraine


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4 hours ago, BFTD said:

So is it finally a fucking war now, or what?

The UK hasn't declared war on anyone since 1945. The USA also hasn't declared war on anyone since 1945.

Post WW2 when the UN was set up the legal system created had built in consequences for countries who declare war so no one does it anymore. 

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15 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

If Putin deploys a nuke there will be a immediate and massive nuclear counterstrike on Russia from Ukraine or it's western allies.

I think it's hugely unlikely that Putin would deploy a nuke but the response wouldn't be a full scale nuclear counterstrike, that would mean almost certainly turning Washington, London and Berlin into glowing rubble along with Moscow, St Petersburg and Vladivostok. 

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6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I think it's hugely unlikely that Putin would deploy a nuke but the response wouldn't be a full scale nuclear counterstrike, that would mean almost certainly turning Washington, London and Berlin into glowing rubble along with Moscow, St Petersburg and Vladivostok. 

And Dumbarton.

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41 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Are there nukes in Ukraine?

No - they had inherited the Soviet's Russia controlled nukes but got rid of them in 1994, signing the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with the UK, USA and Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

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8 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The UK hasn't declared war on anyone since 1945. The USA also hasn't declared war on anyone since 1945.

Post WW2 when the UN was set up the legal system created had built in consequences for countries who declare war so no one does it anymore. 

Aye, I was referring to earlier in the thread, when people were saying that Vlad wouldn't be able to send more troops without a formal declaration. I presume this doesn't cover conscripts.

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8 minutes ago, jagfox said:

I see he's left room to pull back if mobilisation proves unsuccessful and unpopular. "Badly advised, those responsible have been dealt with etc.."

Quote

 I believe it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff to hold a partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation.

 

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37 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I don't know that much in detail but I think if Russia used a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, NATO would intervene.  Probably not with a nuclear strike of its own but with an overwhelming convential response.  

The biggest unknown is a reaction to Russia 'accidently' hitting one of Ukraine's nuclear power station.

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6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I see he's left room to pull back if mobilisation proves unsuccessful and unpopular. "Badly advised, those responsible have been dealt with etc.."

 

He also as far as I can see hasn't actually committed to annexing the four oblasts where fake referenda will be held.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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3 hours ago, Elixir said:

Putin's head:

focus-homer-simpson.gif

The desperate wee man has even waited until old Betty was finally planted in order to make his latest grand announcement, because he knows the global media is finally finished with that obsession and will go back to indulging his attention seeking.

I wish he'd waited at least another week so that I will gave been to Poland and back.

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5 hours ago, BFTD said:

So is it finally a fucking war now, or what?

I think we have to wait for the no doubt glorious result in the referenda and then Russia will say look those pesky Ukrainians are attacking the Russian federation and who know what the response to that would be, but I doubt it would be anything very good.

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Must be a gamble this for Putin. The calling up of yet more folk who dont want to be there, and hitherto probably thought they wouldn't be, could surely precipitate a swelling of unrest in the occupying forces.

If there are doubts already among the forces that have been deployed, what's going to happen when they are joined by folk who maybe know a bit more of what's going on, and want f**k all to do with a proxy war where NATO/the US are heavily invested in killing them all.

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So what do we have:

Active Conscripts terms extended and refusal rights constrained.

Contracts extended, f**k rights.

Approximately 1% of the 25,000,000 reserves to be called up, focused on recent experience in applicable fields (question, what fields?).

 

So this gives Putin a larger force of unhappier soldiers. Given the problems already seen with Russian troops morale and performance, this will likely inherently further degrade Russian combat readiness and performance. As others have noted, the integration and training of these new reservists cannot be properly performed within the existing Russian system. With a focus on short-term, high intensity fights, the expectation that new additions can be trained at the front and under fire is similar to the WWII tactics of Soviet Russian, which was characterized by human wave attacks, with Commissars trailing to “encourage” those lagging behind or running.

It is unlikely these tactics could be used in Ukraine, as the widespread distribution of phones and such would publish such a tactic nearly instantly, and the blowback would be spectacular. Instead, the Russian military will have to reinvent its training to get these new troops up to speed and paired with experienced (and cynical?) troops. This will require the removal of several Russian units from the front lines at a time, turning to reliance on militia, police, contract and mercenary units for holding the current lines.

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Also disaffected troops/ guys with guns hanging about in large numbers around Moscow doesn't usually work out for the Russian leader according to history...

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2 hours ago, Detournement said:

The UK hasn't declared war on anyone since 1945. The USA also hasn't declared war on anyone since 1945.

Post WW2 when the UN was set up the legal system created had built in consequences for countries who declare war so no one does it anymore. 

Torturing prisoners of war is against the convention.

Enhanced coercive interrogation of enemy combatants however, that's fine. 

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