Russian invasion of Ukraine

[supermik]

Whilst most flights are going up in Russia, this former Putin ally was going down flights.

https://apple.news/AukuFwcEkT3KL-ziB-C5rAw

[welshbairn]

25 minutes ago, Detournement said:

^^^ British media raging at Putin saying he will consider using nukes ^^^^

These people all probably think that Ukraine is Putin's business and we could do with someone like him running Britain.

[Elixir]

China and Xi won't let Putin start lobbing nukes.

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

These people all probably think that Ukraine is Putin's business and we could do with someone like him running Britain.

It was a comment on the media - particularly the BBC - who in 2017 decided the willingness to carry out a first strike nuclear attack was a prerequisite to being PM. 

[Dev]

At present no-one knows how the current situation will evolve. I certainly don't. Some on here seem to have a clearer grasp etc.

Some cynical thoughts below.

However, the bottom line is that Putin has opened a Pandora's Box for Russia, never mind for himself and for those who currently prop him up. Nato cannot back down over this invasion as it has previously i.e. over The Crimea (when there was hardly a whimper of protest). It has to see it through to the bitter end and that means regime change and loss of land and the payment of substantial penalties by the remains of Russia.

This time it is all about the freedom of the Western Way of Life versus a gang of international terrorists with nukes. However, Ukraine didn't have sophisticated weaponry or the man power to take on Russia over The Crimea but it now has the united backing of the West/Nato. That's a way different kettle of fish as the West has the nuke power to change the face of Russia if Putin makes a wrong step. Given that he and his mates are yellow as custard they will push and threaten as hard as they dare in order to see what they can get away with. The West/Nato is wise to that.

Putin, in his wisdom, has accepted advice which has lead to the current debacle in The Ukraine and which lead to the very recent proclamation about conscription etc. He always phrases it so that he has followed advice so that, when/if things go wrong he has someone-else to blame. Ultimately, however, "the buck stops here" i.e. on his desk.

He has now set out to arm hundreds of thousands of the more capable reserves and send them into a conflict where many of their former Army comrades have been blown to smithereens. If any group can change Russia it is hundreds of thousands of armed and motivated men. No private army or guard is going to stop them if they or some of them choose to take out the current regime. 

China must be licking its' lips in anticipation of chaos throughout Russia. At least it will mean that they don't have to push so many defensive/strategic resources in the direction of Russia. Maybe they will consider that it would be a good time for some adventures into the minerally wealthy area, Siberia, with the kind assistance of their puppet regime in North Korea? China will certainly be able to focus more closely on Taiwan.

Hazardous times for every-one, sadly.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Dev said:

This time it is all about the freedom of the Western Way of Life versus a gang of international terrorists with nukes.

I'd be slightly wary of citing Ukraine as a bastion of "the freedom of the Western Way of Life" tbh.

Make no mistake about it, Western intervention in this war stems from Anti-Russian sentiment emanating from the Cold War.

It is not, and never has been, about Ukraine itself.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

It was a comment on the media - particularly the BBC - who in 2017 decided the willingness to carry out a first strike nuclear attack was a prerequisite to being PM. 

Presumably that was someone on one of their shows rather than a corporate statement. It's a bit tricky, if you knew that another country was about to launch theirs it might be the only way to stop them, or at least for them to think you might. I'd imagine this is about Corbyn's inability to reconcile his own views with his party, so he likely dithered rather than saying he was in favour of unilateral disarmament, the same way he did disastrously with Brexit and a second referendum when he clearly wanted out.  

[Michael W]

1 hour ago, Bairnardo said:

Probably. Just not sure what gains there are for Vlad with this mobilisation. I could see that it might help stop the rot and produce another grinding stalemate, but that stalemate will be further East than the last one, with a worse equipped Russian Army than the last one, facing a better equipped, bigger Ukranian Army.

Even if throwing more men in plugs gaps now, it surely increases losses since there are quite simply going to be a mot more Russians to wipe out with NATO toys.

And you would imagine that both in terms of making sure this doesn't precipitate Russian gains, and also as an opportunity to further weaken Russias forces and Vlads position, NATO resolve is going to be more double down than back down.

Isn't it just a classic Russia tactic from the bygone years? Chuck a load of men at the situation, many of whom will be ultimately sent to their deaths due to poor preparation. 

It's Putin pulling out stops to try and stop the embarrassment suffered recently and turn it around. Time will tell if it works, but an unwelcome development all the same, if indeed a predictable one. 

[ICTChris]

Aiden Aslin, a British National who was captured by Russian troops during the siege of Mariupol, has been released and is being returned to the UK. Aslin served with the Ukrainian Naval Infantry.
 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Given Russian jails are not for the faint hearted and people viewed as traitors are unlikely to be treated gently in that context this is quite impressive:

Probably needs about 100 times that number and a considerably less genteel demographic showing up before Vlad is likely to be ousted though.

[Bairnardo]

Given Russian jails are not for the faint hearted and people viewed as traitors are unlikely to be treated gently in that context this is quite impressive:
Probably needs about 100 times that number and a considerably less genteel demographic showing up before Vlad is likely to be ousted though.

From little acorns.....

[LongTimeLurker]

Russian sources are making it sound like the Ukrainians are making progress where Lyman is concerned:

 

[Thane of Cawdor]

Hello again sailors, time for round 2?  I'm not a trained historian, so my question to better-informed posters is: are there any parallels between the disastrous Russian defeats in the Russo-Japanese war and Putin's misadventures in Ukraine. The former had strongly negative outcomes for that regime, is anything similar likely to bite Vlad on the arse?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HalfCutNinja]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

I'd be slightly wary of citing Ukraine as a bastion of "the freedom of the Western Way of Life" tbh.

Make no mistake about it, Western intervention in this war stems from Anti-Russian sentiment emanating from the Cold War.

It is not, and never has been, about Ukraine itself.

Totally. Imagine being that naive.

In Russia's position we would have done the exact same.

We wanted this, we spent years preparing for and trying to provoke exactly this series of events. We blocked a peace deal in April.

We are responsible for this. And this is going to develop into WWIII. This time next year we will be at war with Russia, because it was decided a long time ago in Washington that's what in America's best interests.

 

[HalfCutNinja]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

These people all probably think that Ukraine is Putin's business and we could do with someone like him running Britain.

Ukraine is absolutely Putin's business. That's his job. He's president of the Russian federation, if a country is inviting a hostile military alliance to station nuclear weapons along Russia's border that is absolutely one million percent his business.

 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

11 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

Ukraine is absolutely Putin's business. That's his job. He's president of the Russian federation, if a country is inviting a hostile military alliance to station nuclear weapons along Russia's border that is absolutely one million percent his business.

 

It can’t be more than 100%. That is the maximum amount of business possible.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Theroadlesstravelled

[LongTimeLurker]

25 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

Hello again sailors, time for round 2?  I'm not a trained historian, so my question to better-informed posters is: are there any parallels between the disastrous Russian defeats in the Russo-Japanese war and Putin's misadventures in Ukraine. The former had strongly negative outcomes for that regime, is anything similar likely to bite Vlad on the arse?

Not a trained historian either or a sailor for that matter but don't think there's much doubt that Putin is unlikely to survive a military defeat by Ukraine either politically or physically. Hence the partial mobilisation to try to shore things up enough to be able to seize the four oblasts where the fake referenda will be held.

Think that losing to the Ukrainians would actually be a lot worse for the Russian elite than losing to Japan in 1905 because Ukraine until recently was majority Russophone (including Zelensky, who was elected primarily by the more Russian speaking east and south) and provides a clear example of how there's a democratic alternative to Putin's power vertical in the post-Soviet space.

Edited September 21, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[welshbairn]

13 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

Ukraine is absolutely Putin's business. That's his job. He's president of the Russian federation, if a country is inviting a hostile military alliance to station nuclear weapons along Russia's border that is absolutely one million percent his business.

 

Even if this happened, which I seriously doubt given that they voluntarily gave up their nukes in the 90's, there is zero chance that NATO countries would have agreed to it. Ukraine voted for independence by a large margin, Putin can't accept that.

[renton]

32 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

Ukraine is absolutely Putin's business. That's his job. He's president of the Russian federation, if a country is inviting a hostile military alliance to station nuclear weapons along Russia's border that is absolutely one million percent his business.

 

What nuclear weapons were going to be stationed on Russia's borders, again?

[jagfox]

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by jagfox