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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

 

No wonder..

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Citizens enrolled in the military register from the beginning of mobilization do not have the right to leave their place of residence without permission from the military commissariats. The authorities have not yet specified whether this provision will apply to those not subject to partial mobilization.

https://tass.com/defense/1511049

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Russia isn't going to use Strategic Nuclear Weapons on Ukraine - it's next door ffs. Tactical Weapons are a different story, and we'd then be in a start of Threads scenario, but it's clear this threat is directed at the NATO aliance rather than Kyiv.

They also won't use nuclear weapons unless Russia's borders are invaded - that's where these referendums come in. If, following the shan vote, Putin then considers them to be part of Russia, should Ukraine attempt to liberate them he then may see that as violating Russia's borders - a scenario which does allow them to initiate a nuclear strike.

And what will they do if / when Ukraine does, as seems inevitable, seek to liberate said areas? If they don't use their nuclear arsenal they look weak and all talk to anyone else who might fancy a nibble. If they do use them, then they'll get wiped out but so will everyone else.

Edited by Todd_is_God
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2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Russia isn't going to use Strategic Nuclear Weapons on Ukraine - it's next door ffs. Tactical Weapons are a different story, and we'd then be in a start of Threads scenario.

They also won't use nuclear weapons unless Russia's borders are invaded - that's where these referendums come in. If, following the shan vote, Putin then considers them to be part of Russia, should Ukraine attempt to liberate them he then may see that as violating Russia's borders - a scenario which does allow them to initiate a nuclear strike.

And what will they do if / when Ukraine does, as seems inevitable, seek to liberate said areas? If they don't use their nuclear arsenal they look weak and all talk. If they do use them, then they'll get wiped out but so will everyone else.

From the start of the war Ukraine has launched attacks on Russia proper - both within the internationally recognised borders and within Crimea.  They attacked a Russian airbase with a ballistic missile in the first 48 hours of the war, they've blown up fuel depots with TB2s, used helicopters to attack Russian bases in Belgorod.  In the aftermath of the Kharkiv offensive they have forced Russian border guards to retreat from several checkpoints and have likely got troops inside Russia - a few hundred metres inside but there none the less.  Ukrainian forces have also attacked Russian naval avaiation and military infrastructure in Crimea.  They've blown up several Russian gas rigs in the Black Sea off Crimea as well.

None of these attacks, some of which have killed Russian civilians, have lead to change in Russia's nuclear posture.  The Russian government know that basically no-one on earth accepts the referendums, if they try to use a nuclear weapon on the back of them it will be end for the regime.

Russian doctrine is to comment on nuclear weapons, to make statements about having them.  They did this at the start of the war and are doing it again now.  I don't think that they will up their readiness or take any further steps towards using a nuclear weapon.  It's designed to put pressure on the West to stop or reduce providing weapons and support to Ukraine.  I don't think it will be successful.

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Shiogu has been quoted as saying that they will not mobilise conscripts and will not be send to the zone of special military operation.  They seem to be wanting to stop professionals quitting and force anyone with relevant military experience back into the army.

A lot of the professional soldiers in the Russian army are conscripts who sign on at the end of their term - harsh pressure is often placed on them and you can assume this will ramp up even more now.

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3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

From the start of the war Ukraine has launched attacks on Russia proper - both within the internationally recognised borders and within Crimea.  They attacked a Russian airbase with a ballistic missile in the first 48 hours of the war, they've blown up fuel depots with TB2s, used helicopters to attack Russian bases in Belgorod.  In the aftermath of the Kharkiv offensive they have forced Russian border guards to retreat from several checkpoints and have likely got troops inside Russia - a few hundred metres inside but there none the less.  Ukrainian forces have also attacked Russian naval avaiation and military infrastructure in Crimea.  They've blown up several Russian gas rigs in the Black Sea off Crimea as well.

None of these attacks, some of which have killed Russian civilians, have lead to change in Russia's nuclear posture.  The Russian government know that basically no-one on earth accepts the referendums, if they try to use a nuclear weapon on the back of them it will be end for the regime.

Russian doctrine is to comment on nuclear weapons, to make statements about having them.  They did this at the start of the war and are doing it again now.  I don't think that they will up their readiness or take any further steps towards using a nuclear weapon.  It's designed to put pressure on the West to stop or reduce providing weapons and support to Ukraine.  I don't think it will be successful.

True, but they haven't put a boot on the ground inside Russia.

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If like Erdoğan says, Russia are becoming more open to talking, I guess they need to try to do so from any position of strength they can muster.

Ultimately the endgame here involves sanctions being lifted. Insisting parts of Ukraine are actually Russia because of a sham referendum isn't going to fly in terms of the post war picture.

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42 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

They also won't use nuclear weapons unless Russia's borders are invaded - that's where these referendums come in. If, following the shan vote, Putin then considers them to be part of Russia, should Ukraine attempt to liberate them he then may see that as violating Russia's borders - a scenario which does allow them to initiate a nuclear strike.

That doctrine is new to me, invade and annex another country's territory and if they fight back it's fair play to nuke them.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

That doctrine is new to me, invade and annex another country's territory and if they fight back it's fair play to nuke them.

It's not about fighting back, it's about invading the borders of Russia.

If they interpret the results of these referenda to mean that those areas are now part of the Russian Federation (rather than areas of Ukraine under Russian control) then Ukrainian troops entering those areas could be viewed by the Kremlin very differently to when they did so in those areas already liberated.

This is literally what Putin is threatening / suggesting, whether he cleared it with you first or not.

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1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's not about fighting back, it's about invading the borders of Russia.

If they interpret the results of these referenda to mean that those areas are now part of the Russian Federation (rather than areas of Ukraine under Russian control) then Ukrainian troops entering those areas could be viewed by the Kremlin very differently to when they did so in those areas already liberated.

This is literally what Putin is threatening / suggesting, whether he cleared it with you first or not.

The point is whether other countries agree. Particularly, other nuclear powers.

Unless the other nuclear/NATO powers can be persuaded that indeed, Ukraine is invading sovereign Russian territory then they risk a showdown with the West.

That would start at a convention level. NATO direct intervention would utterly destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine in a couple of weeks and Putin would be right back where he started but with no Army and his nuclear trump card no longer usable since any nuclear attack on NATO forces would likely see (at first) proportionate tactical strikes on Russian oil and gas refineries before escalating further.

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3 minutes ago, renton said:

The point is whether other countries agree. Particularly, other nuclear powers.

Unless the other nuclear/NATO powers can be persuaded that indeed, Ukraine is invading sovereign Russian territory then they risk a showdown with the West.

That would start at a convention level. NATO direct intervention would utterly destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine in a couple of weeks and Putin would be right back where he started but with no Army and his nuclear trump card no longer usable since any nuclear attack on NATO forces would likely see (at first) proportionate tactical strikes on Russian oil and gas refineries before escalating further.

They aren't hiding this, though. The threat is directed towards NATO / the West, not Ukraine.

Putin is very clear on who he believes is orchestrating the Ukrainian offensive; it's not Kyiv.

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There's a guy I follow on Twitter who is convinced that nuclear armed nations all have low radiation nuclear weapons in their arsenals. We might find out soon.

The guy has documents showing that the US were working on this in the 70s but the main focus is the 43m deep crater from the Beirut explosion which is far bigger than it should be going by the official account. 

 

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9 minutes ago, renton said:

The point is whether other countries agree. Particularly, other nuclear powers.

Unless the other nuclear/NATO powers can be persuaded that indeed, Ukraine is invading sovereign Russian territory then they risk a showdown with the West.

That would start at a convention level. NATO direct intervention would utterly destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine in a couple of weeks and Putin would be right back where he started but with no Army and his nuclear trump card no longer usable since any nuclear attack on NATO forces would likely see (at first) proportionate tactical strikes on Russian oil and gas refineries before escalating further.

It's quite an achievement to make nuclear war seem dull. Well done. 

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Just now, Detournement said:

It's quite an achievement to make nuclear war seem dull. Well done. 

I dont doubt that a disastrous escalation would be unavoidable. I don't think Putin is willing though, even now, to risk a nuclear confrontation with the West. 

 

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I don't know how much maintenance nuclear missiles require but, given the seeming neglect of much of their conventional hardware, I wonder how many of their 6000 nukes would actually take off, hit their targets and explode. Given the unlikelihood of them ever being used it's quite feasible resources were deployed elsewhere. I'm not suggesting we should ever test this though...

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Just now, renton said:

I dont doubt that a disastrous escalation would be unavoidable. I don't think Putin is willing though, even now, to risk a nuclear confrontation with the West. 

He's a dying man on the verge of a humiliating defeat.

He is exactly the type of person, if anyone is, who would be likely to risk a nuclear exchange as he has little left to lose.

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