Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Billy Jean King]

That useless p***k has spent more time in Kyiv this year than he's managed at Downing Street. Zelensky must be sick of the sight of him.

That's got to be fake ? Why would he go there on the very day Ukraine predicts Russian strikes on Kyiv when he is literally days away from officially being replaced.

[vikingTON]

5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Have any European countries given the slightest sign that their support for Ukraine is wavering?

Their governments haven't faced their electorates in the middle of a self-inflicted energy crisis yet. No amount of flegs and Eurovision will cover for that shoeing. 

[Newbornbairn]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

Let’s say Russia ends up status quo ante 2022 attack. That leaves Crimea with 10% of their 2014 required water supply, and they were using 180% of that for people alone. The farming in the area has been devastated post 2014, and with no water for industrial uses, that sector is pretty much static. The only advantage for Russia is Sevastopol, and the question is how much are they willing to rob Peter to pay Paul and support Crimea with infrastructure building out from the east? I suspect that’s part of why Ukraine ends up taking a longer term view on Crimea and it’s return, without saying it out loud.

When Russia loses this disastrous “special action”, if they keep Crimea in any form, the money won’t be there to spend on Crimea, and it will stagnate as a military peninsula and the majority ethnically Russian population will wither away. If Putin gets removed/killed, the chance for the Russians to re-sign a face saving lease on the base in Sevastopol (see 2010 Treaty for Gas) to resolve the issue as very high. It would offer the new Russian administration a face saving answer and allow the Ukrainians to get a relatively easy resolution with little downside.

The only thing of value to Russia in Crimea is Sevastapol. Ukraine have just demonstrated they can hit the naval base with long range missiles and what's left of the Black Sea fleet has been pulled out so it's hard to see what use the place is to Russia now.

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

7 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

The only thing of value to Russia in Crimea is Sevastapol. Ukraine have just demonstrated they can hit the naval base with long range missiles and what's left of the Black Sea fleet has been pulled out so it's hard to see what use the place is to Russia now.

Their navy needs a home warm water port.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

Their navy needs a home warm water port.

I don't think for a moment that Ukraine will get Crimea back, but Russia have other ports available on the Black Sea, even pre 2014, Novorossiysk for one.

[Detournement]

14 hours ago, TxRover said:

The interesting note is that even if Russia holds onto Crimea, they have to find a way to replace the 90% of the water supply that Ukraine cut off after the 2014 invasion. Add to that the majority of the power supply into Crimea has historically been from Ukraine, the area is a millstone around Putin, and Russia’s, neck if Ukraine can fully control the head of the North Crimean Canal.

Who controls the head of the North Crimean Canal today?

[Detournement]

Yesterday he banned trade unions in Ukraine. Maybe he will get around to banning Nazi patches next.....

[101]

59 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Zelensky and Boris Johnson doing a walk about in central Kyiv today.

 

 

Since he chucked it in he's spent his time on jollies whilst completely ignoring the crisis in the UK. 

[TxRover]

10 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Who controls the head of the North Crimean Canal today?

Russia, of course. It starts at Tavriysk, flowing south from the Kakhovka Reservoir, on the Dnieper River. The Ukrainians built a dam in 2015 to close off the canal, which the Russians explosively demolished a few months ago.

The amusing bit is the Russians claimed increased yields post water cutoff, but that was due to increased investments in machinery and equipment…and the numbers being fudged. Meanwhile, cultivated land in the Crimean area dropped from 130,000 hectares to 14,000 hectares over four years. Since the resumption of water flow in the canal, the residents of Crimea now have relatively consistent water supplies, up from 3-5 hours a day.

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Yesterday he banned trade unions in Ukraine. Maybe he will get around to banning Nazi patches next.....

Meanwhile a Russian Mayor has been arrested today for calling the invasion an, err, invasion.

[LongTimeLurker]

27 minutes ago, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

Their navy needs a home warm water port.

Vladivostok, Murmansk, Baltiysk and Novorossiysk all provide that, so that's not what makes Sevastopol so strategic. More to do with offshore natural gas discoveries being a threat to Gazprom and making sure NATO is never based there. Crimea being Ukrainian thanks to a drunken whim (legend has it anyway) of Khruschev wasn't a problem when Ukraine was still voting in relatively pro-Russian presidents and the east/south of the country dominated in the rada politically.

[DiegoDiego]

Vladivostok, Murmansk, Baltiysk and Novorossiysk all provide that

Murmansk? I wouldn't fancy a dip in that "warm water".

[LongTimeLurker]

Neither would I but being ice-free year round is the key consideration on this. The Kola peninsula benefits from the tail end of the Gulf Stream.

Edited August 24, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[welshbairn]

21 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

 

Murmansk? I wouldn't fancy a dip in that "warm water".

Baltiysk is fucking baltic.

[welshbairn]

Vladivostok used to need ice breakers for winter access until power plants started off loading loads of hot water to churn around the harbour. I think much of the talk of needing a warm water port comes from the 19th Century and before when powerful ice breakers weren't available. 

[8MileBU]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

It's the only place he can go where people don't shout  "w****r!" at him.

“v****r!”

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

I don't think for a moment that Ukraine will get Crimea back, but Russia have other ports available on the Black Sea, even pre 2014, Novorossiysk for one.

 

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Vladivostok, Murmansk, Baltiysk and Novorossiysk all provide that, so that's not what makes Sevastopol so strategic. More to do with offshore natural gas discoveries being a threat to Gazprom and making sure NATO is never based there. Crimea being Ukrainian thanks to a drunken whim (legend has it anyway) of Khruschev wasn't a problem when Ukraine was still voting in relatively pro-Russian presidents and the east/south of the country dominated in the rada politically.

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

[Detournement]

Macron's told the French people they will have to make sacrifices this winter to support Ukraine. 

He must have forgot to mention it during the election. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

4 hours ago, 101 said:

Since he chucked it in he's spent his time on jollies whilst completely ignoring the crisis in the UK. 

So would I to be fair.

[vikingTON]

5 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

The only thing of value to Russia in Crimea is Sevastapol. Ukraine have just demonstrated they can hit the naval base with long range missiles and what's left of the Black Sea fleet has been pulled out so it's hard to see what use the place is to Russia now.

Crimea is of enormous symbolic value not just to Putin's regime but a sizable plurality of Russians. They see it as part restoring what Catherine the Great won for the Russian lands and part getting their old summer holiday destinations back. The Crimean Tatars are irrelevant to that story but then all Tatar populations are in political terms. 

Strategically it is not critical to Russia but the same applies to the Ukraine nationalist insistence that it must revert to their control because Khrushchev was guilty about his stint in Kiev. 

3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

So the answer is "No" then basically.

Maybe we should revise this if and when they start showing a slow-down in support?

You must have a meltdown every time you see a weather forecast on a TV then. Having the temerity to call things that haven't happened yet!