Russian invasion of Ukraine

[HK Hibee]

On 03/06/2022 at 13:32, Detournement said:

Sanctioning China would cause the West to meltdown in about a week. China has already won the economic war. 

All the West will do is invent more and more far fetched lies to try and deflect from the fact that a population that was mainly illiterate peasants a few generations ago are going to have a noticeably higher standard of living than the majority of people here. 

The most important thing for China’s leadership is avoiding anything which causes social unrest. There is a social contract which is broadly continue to make us rich and we are ok about not having a say in how we are governed. 
 

this year they run a real risk of not hitting the economic growth required to keep living standards at same level.   
 

while China could probably survive sanctions if it invaded Taiwan it would be at a cost of lower growth and living standards and unless they were able to do it quickly the population might not like the impact of sanctions. There are plenty in the top of the CCP who are waiting for any excuse to unsettle Xi. 
 

And living standards, on average, are not as good as here. There is also more income inequality than here. 
 

summary. China hasn’t won the economic war and the top leadership  to be a bit careful about what it does if it wants to survive. 

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

I think that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seems pretty fanciful based on what's happened in Ukraine. The Russian military had recent combat experience in Syria, Georgia and Ukraine, was fighting on its own doorstep, had an enormous advantage in equipment, airpower and naval power and have still experienced a colossal disaster. 

The Chinese military haven't fought anyone for the best part of 40 years, apart from their own citizens. They'd have to cross 100 miles of open ocean, opposed by a reasonably large (if old) Taiwanese navy and a large, modern Taiwanese air force. I don't see how they could do it.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Carl Cort's Hamstring

[Guest]

On 04/06/2022 at 08:11, Newbornbairn said:

Estonia's PM - https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/03/estonia-russia-ukraine-war-kallas-baltics-nato/

 

Quote

FP: You’ve said before that “peace cannot be the ultimate goal.” Do you feel your stance is supported by other European countries?

KK: There are different [possible] ends to the war, and I think this is where the differences of opinion lie. For some countries in Europe, peace is the ultimate goal. Their mindset is that with peace, everything is fine. But we had peace after the Second World War, and yet the atrocities for my country started—the mass deportations, the killings. This will happen to the occupied territories [in Ukraine] and the people there, too. This needs to be understood. If the aggressor is not punished and we go back to business as usual, then everything will continue.
Nazi crimes were widely condemned after the Second World War, but Communist crimes never were. Actually, [Joseph] Stalin killed more people than [Adolf] Hitler did. If it is not condemned, you see the result: 70 percent of people are in favor of Stalinism in Russia. The history books in Estonia were rewritten after the Soviet Union collapsed, but they were never rewritten in Russia. So if people admire dictators, then there is no obstacle to becoming one or submitting to one.

There's a further paragraph to her answer not in the quotation there and in it she mentions Timothy Snyder. Possibly the world's most respected historian specialising in both Hitler and Stalin, Snyder says Hitler killed more than Stalin. Kallas claims the opposite, contradicting something so key to Snyder's work, yet then namedrops him a few sentences later. 

[BFTD]

You'd think that, by now, we could all just agree that both Hitler and Stalin had their faults.

[Hillonearth]

2 minutes ago, BFTD said:

You'd think that, by now, we could all just agree that both Hitler and Stalin had their faults.

When it came down to it it was just an epic case of musical differences.

 

[BFTD]

Modern technology is marvellous.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

3 hours ago, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

The Chinese military haven't fought anyone for the best part of 40 years, apart from their own citizens. They'd have to cross 100 miles of open ocean, opposed by a reasonably large (if old) Taiwanese navy and a large, modern Taiwanese air force. I don't see how they could do it.

Kinmen is less than 5 miles off the mainland and they couldn't take that despite continuous bombardment decades ago.

[Bairnardo]

Modern technology is marvellous.

Certianly a better use of the technology than convincing the UK that the Queen is still alive, for some reason.

[welshbairn]

I'm sure if Germany had succeeded in taking over the UK in 1940 they wouldn't have found it hard to find willing volunteers to do the dirty work of sorting out the Jews. What this has to do with Russia's efforts to restore its Empire in 2022 is beyond me though.

Edited June 5, 2022 by welshbairn

[Richey Edwards]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm sure if Germany had succeeded in taking over the UK in 1940 they wouldn't have found it hard to find willing volunteers to do the dirty work of sorting out the Jews. What this has to do with Russia's efforts to restore its Empire in 2020 is beyond me though.

Sometimes I wonder if the Nazis did actually win.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Richey Edwards

[dorlomin]

On 25/05/2022 at 08:48, dorlomin said:

Seems that as some have been saying for a couple of weeks its attritional trench warfare now.

 

 

Its like the grinding of WWI when slow moves to take towns and villages no one had heard of costing hundreds to thousands of lives. Severodonetsk that Russia has captured is a town of about 11 000 pre war. Europes largest army spends weeks trying to capture something the size of Carluke. 

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24

 

 

If this is to believed then they have yet again reduced the scope and scale of their operations. 

Two weeks later and its pretty much the same, with the exception that the Russian advance in Luhansk Oblast seems to have totally stalled. 

Quote

 

Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian frontal assaults in Severodonetsk through prudent and effective local counterattacks in Severodonetsk and their defense of the western Siverskyi Donets riverbank. Ukrainian officials reported on June 3 that Ukrainian defenders pushed back against Russian advances in Severodonetsk and are actively hindering Russian advances on Lysychansk from the southwest.[1]  Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai disagreed with the UK Defense Ministry forecast on June 3 that Russian forces will seize the remaining 10% of the oblast in the next two weeks, claiming that Ukrainian forces have enough reinforcements and equipment to conduct further counterattacks and defend their positions.[2] Haidai noted that Russian forces wrongfully believe in their own successes, enabling Ukrainian defenders to inflict high losses against unsuspecting Chechen units. Pro-Russian milblogger Voenkor Kotyenok Z claimed that Russian forces are unlikely to break through Ukrainian defenses in Lysychansk from Severodonetsk (through continued frontal assaults and an opposed crossing of the Siverskyi Donetsk River) and will likely need to complete the drive from Popasna if they hope to capture Lysychansk.[3] Voenkor Kotyenok Z claimed that Ukrainian forces could prevent Russian river crossings from Severodonetsk and highlighted that Russian forces have not yet secured access to two key highways to Lysychansk.

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4

They seem to lack the armour and mechanised units to from enough mass to force a return to manoeuvre warfare. They seem to have lost so much infantry that they now lack the numbers to bludgeon their way through Ukrainian defensive lines any more. All that is left for the moment is to use their artillery numbers to try to bombard the Ukrainians into defeat. Sort of what Falkenhayn planned at Verdun. Though now western artillery pieces are now being employed, Ukrainians are posting more and more videos of counter battery strikes. 

In battles of attrition not much seems to happen until one side cracks then you get a bit of movement as they have to shorten defensive lines and so on. The other change that could tip things is if Ukraine receives large amounts of night vision kit for infantry. This would totally change the balance in the trench by trench stuff. 

Quote

 

 

Its going to be a long grim summer. 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

4 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

There's a further paragraph to her answer not in the quotation there and in it she mentions Timothy Snyder. Possibly the world's most respected historian specialising in both Hitler and Stalin, Snyder says Hitler killed more than Stalin. Kallas claims the opposite, contradicting something so key to Snyder's work, yet then namedrops him a few sentences later. 

Have read Bloodlands and I don't think a Hitler vs Stalin body count was Timothy Snyder's main conclusion because he  viewed both as being very bad news and he was interested in the interplay between their systems in what he termed the Bloodlands in Eadtern Europe where both held sway for a bit between 1939-45.

His approach avoided nationalist narratives and revolved around mass killings being particularly bad in areas where the rule of law provided by a state was dismantled and much of the local state apparatus then collaborated with invading armies two or maybe even three times in relatively quick succession. That would mean doing stuff like helping the einsatzgruppen as a way to keep themselves in paid employmemt.

Getting back to Vlad's special military operation. From what I've read, I think one reason why things appear to be tilting slightly in Ukraine's favour again may be that a lot of the contracts signed on the Russian side in late Feb only ran for three months making it easier for some of the more experienced Russian soldiers to leave the battlefield at this point.

[Guest]

14 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Have read Bloodlands and I don't think a Hitler vs Stalin body count was Timothy Snyder's main conclusion because he  viewed both as being very bad news and he was interested in the interplay between their systems in what he termed the Bloodlands in Eadtern Europe where both held sway for a bit between 1939-45.

His approach avoided nationalist narratives and revolved around mass killings being particularly bad in areas where the rule of law provided by a state was dismantled and much of the local state apparatus then collaborated with invading armies two or maybe even three times in relatively quick succession. That would mean doing stuff like helping the einsatzgruppen as a way to keep themselves in paid employmemt.

Sure, all true. He has been categorical in other writing, though; "We know now that the Germans killed more people than the Soviets did". I should've made clearer in my previous post that I only picked up on that part to show how Kaja Kallas, like most politicians, might not be entirely consistent or honest.

Edited June 6, 2022 by FreedomFarter

[LongTimeLurker]

Given the two main roads into Lysychansk are within artillery range for the Russians at this point that was a very risky thing to do. Maybe necessary though to bolster morale.

[ICTChris]

The governor of Luhansk region has said that the situation in Severodonetsk has deteriorated.

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

The governor of Luhansk region has said that the situation in Severodonetsk has deteriorated.

 

It's now Severerodonetsk.

[welshbairn]

Don't know if this has been posted before, I reckon this guy has blown his armchair general gig on Russian TV.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

He did a U-turn after that and sung a very different tune on his next appearance. Not sure if he still gets on TV there though.

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

In Sievierodonetsk, fierce urban battle ongoing to exhaust Russia