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Russian invasion of Ukraine


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11 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

It's not really just another few hundred miles as they don't normally drive it to Odessa to begin with, they sail it down the Dnieper.

Also, surely the port of Constanța has nowhere near the spare capacity to handle Ukraine's exports.

According to this most of it is delivered by rail to the Black Seas ports, which makes sense given that much of it will be grown a long way from the Dneiper. Apart from potential capacity at Constanta a problem is the railway's a different gauge in Romania.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-05/will-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-cause-wheat-shortages-raise-food-prices-more

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Guest Flash
Posted (edited)

The other problem is the cost of insurance for merchant shipping in the Black Sea. There is an article in the FT setting out the potential ways they are looking at of dealing with the blockade. There is a link in the FT to an article by Allianz on the impact of the blockade on worldwide shipping.

FT
Eta not sure if the FT link will work. Basically they are looking at shifting some stuff by rail and potentially looking at convoys in the Black Sea but that creates its own problems. Ukraine taking on the Russian navy with missiles supplied from the West is another. Again, not exactly easy.

Here’s the link to the Allianz article.

Allianz

 

Edited by Flash
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5 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Ukraine have ordered troops to stop defending Mariupol. Does this mean Russia are winning the war? It seemed to be going badly for them not too long ago. ☹️

Russia has been forced to significantly reduce its war aims several times. It started as a coup, the idea was that a lightning attack on Hostomel airport would allow their special forces to seize key locations in the capital, the government would flee and the army would roll over the disorganised opposition in 3 days. This is part of why their logistics sucked balls in the first couple of weeks. 

They have been forced to withdraw from near Kyiv at great loss.

They have also, in the past weeks, been pushed away from Ukraines second largest city: Kharkiv. So in the big picture its a total disaster for them. However As Ukraine has had to focus on defending its two largest cities and stop break outs in other parts of the country they have been losing ground around the JFO (Joint Forces Area)

Link to large map

Roughly from Izyum to Mariupol. 

The Russias have been rebuilding their shattered battalions into new battalions for one last push. This is slowly making ground. Ukraines plan from here on is to keep pulling in reservists and training them up and waiting for the US equipment to start arriving in mass in the coming months.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/19/unprecedented-us-congress-passes-massive-ukraine-aid-package

It will be a brutal and ugly artillery slugging match for the next couple of months. Then the armoured vehicles and other kit will begin to flood in. Russia will simply run out of enough trained and willing soldiers. 

 

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15 hours ago, jagfox said:

The article neglects to mention that USA sponsored the 1967-74 military dictatorship which Greeks had to suffer under. Memory of that is a large source of Greek mistrust with USA.

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Azovstal has fully surrendered, all of the Azov Battalion have surrendered to Russians and RU have declared "victory in Mariupol". Unclear yet whether they'll be part of a prisoner swap, war trials or some mix of outcomes.

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5 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Fair play to the girl. Ride your way to a passport with the first guy you meet then work on getting a richer man later. Very smart. 

You can't really blame Tony either, no one is going to be able to resist a hot 22 year old bird who lives in your house. Huge f**k up from the soon to be divorced mother of 2. 

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5 hours ago, Sweet Pete said:

Azovstal has fully surrendered, all of the Azov Battalion have surrendered to Russians and RU have declared "victory in Mariupol". Unclear yet whether they'll be part of a prisoner swap, war trials or some mix of outcomes.

I saw they have some Azov guy who made a video a few months ago saying he was going to rape Kadyrov's children. Good luck to him. 

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