Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jagfox]

9 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Are Ukraine paying for all these weapons that NATO countries are supplying them?

I only ask because, for the rest of the world, the best outcome is peace ASAP, but there is surely little reason for Ukraine to seek a peace deal with Russia so long as they have free, unlimited access to modern weapons.

I assumed that the initial wave of sanctions and weapon shipments were designed to try and snuff the war out quickly. But, with that having failed, what's the long term game for NATO countries here? Continue shovelling indefinitely expensive resources into a war we aren't involved in?

I think there is a version of lend-lease on the go, certainly with US supplies who have budgeted for billions to Ukraine but then there are doubts of the effectiveness of some of the weapons sent such as the Javelin and N-Laws when the main disparity is in MLRS and artillery. Also a lot of NATO members have contributed effectively nothing. France and Germany the most notable. They have also failed to pushback to Putin for many years as well as the UK and USA,

Russia seems to be on target for its objectives of the Donbas and effectively cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. That final point may come down to if Odessa is taken. I don't think they would actually want anymore after stopping sea trade and destroying a lot of the industry in the East of the country. How Ukraine can pay back any bills to the US after that I am unsure.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Dormolin copy and pasting absolute drivel from Reddit has made this thread so much better. 

Says the King of Drivel.

[LongTimeLurker]

Big once 100% confirmed:

 

but has to be frustrating for the Ukrainians that these shipments only happen incremently. If these had been supplied at the very outset what difference would that have made in Kherson and Mariupol? 500 km isn't enough range to hit Moscow from Kharkiv but it potentially brings all of Crimea in range including the Kerch bridge. Hence the warnings from Lavrov.

[ICTChris]

There are now reports that Ukraine is actually reinforcing Severodonetsk not withdrawing. Main takeaway should be that no-one knows what is happening there really.

[dirty dingus]

10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There are now reports that Ukraine is actually reinforcing Severodonetsk not withdrawing. Main takeaway should be that no-one knows what is happening there really.

Why does this war seem to lack coverage? With the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Syria and even the Vietnam war it seemed every unit had a journalist embedded. Here there seems to be, photographs, drone, cctv and grainy phone footage. Is it to do with the enemy tracking the press sending data, lack of uk/us personnel involvement or just not as many budding Kate Aides anymore?

[jagfox]

25 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Big once 100% confirmed:

 

but has to be frustrating for the Ukrainians that these shipments only happen incremently. If these had been supplied at the very outset what difference would that have made in Kherson and Mariupol? 500 km isn't enough range to hit Moscow from Kharkiv but it potentially brings all of Crimea in range including the Kerch bridge. Hence the warnings from Lavrov.

I’ve seen other sources they are more likely to send shorter range systems if any. 

[LongTimeLurker]

19 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There are now reports that Ukraine is actually reinforcing Severodonetsk not withdrawing. Main takeaway should be that no-one knows what is happening there really.

The situation around Popasna is reported to have stabilised a bit. What the Ukrainians do at Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is likely to be shaped by how likely imminent encirclement is from that direction.

Using their hold on a sliver of land in Luhansk oblast as bait to have the Russians lose lots of their remaining armour and best trained personnel going after strong defensive positions is the ideal scenario from a Ukrainian standpoint at this point.

The Ukrainians are still in a holding pattern to a certain extent waiting to be ready to counterattack in a major way in July or August with newly trained reserves who will be equipped with all sorts of goodies supplied by NATO.

[doulikefish]

5 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Why does this war seem to lack coverage? With the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Syria and even the Vietnam war it seemed every unit had a journalist embedded. Here there seems to be, photographs, drone, cctv and grainy phone footage. Is it to do with the enemy tracking the press sending data, lack of uk/us personnel involvement or just not as many budding Kate Aides anymore?

Lack of "oor" boys being involved and the fact that Lyviv is quite a nice wee spot to report on a war 

[jagfox]

25 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

There are now reports that Ukraine is actually reinforcing Severodonetsk not withdrawing. Main takeaway should be that no-one knows what is happening there really.

Radio just said Russian forces have entered Severo-Donetsk 

[LongTimeLurker]

That happened yesterday at a location called the Mir hotel from a youtube clip I watched last night. One of two remaining bridges from Lysychansk was also blown up yesterday apparently:

Find this guy is reasonably balanced in terms of outlining the setbacks as well as the victories for his side.

Edited May 28, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[Sergeant Wilson]

17 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Why does this war seem to lack coverage? With the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Syria and even the Vietnam war it seemed every unit had a journalist embedded. Here there seems to be, photographs, drone, cctv and grainy phone footage. Is it to do with the enemy tracking the press sending data, lack of uk/us personnel involvement or just not as many budding Kate Aides anymore?

Because you can do it from your house apparently.

11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The situation around Popasna is reported to have stabilised a bit. What the Ukrainians do at Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is likely to be shaped by how likely imminent encirclement is from that direction.

Using their hold on a sliver of land in Luhansk oblast as bait to have the Russians lose lots of their remaining armour and best trained personnel going after strong defensive positions is the ideal scenario from a Ukrainian standpoint at this point.

The Ukrainians are still in a holding pattern to a certain extent waiting to be ready to counterattack in a major way in July or August with newly trained reserves who will be equipped with all sorts of goodies supplied by NATO.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Twitter and youtube have changed everything in media terms. You can find people like the Ukrainian dude in the clip above who actually know what they are talking about to keep you informed now rather than listening to some talking head on the BBC who basically only got the job because they had a posh Oxbridge accent and were the sort of person the Beeb top brass were comfortable having around at office Christmas parties, etc.

Edited May 28, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[Detournement]

All the information on Telegram and other sources in English from both sides has completely negated the reporting/propaganda techniques that the British media used while covering wars in Muslim nations. 

Especially in Syria there was an obvious effort to coordinate reporting of the fighting with political efforts here to join the war. The war would disappear for weeks then all the news channels would bring back coverage simultaneously.

 

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Detournement

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Radio just said Russian forces have entered Severo-Donetsk 

They entered Kyiv and Kharkiv as well. It's all pretty meaningless because we are only getting fed what each side wants to show us.

[ICTChris]

23 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

Radio just said Russian forces have entered Severo-Donetsk 

They entered Kyiv and Kharkiv as well. It's all pretty meaningless because we are only getting fed what each side wants to show us.

Kyiv and Kharkiv are huge cities with populations of millions and big metropolitan areas. Severodonetsk has a population of 100k, or did pre war. It’s much smaller and Russian forces entering suggests it’s under immediate threat.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

I’ve seen other sources they are more likely to send shorter range systems if any. 

This might be the way they do it:

 

Thread that's worth a read from somebody who I suspect probably has more concept of what's happening than Kate Adie would if she were reporting off a teleprompter from Bakhmut:

 

 

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

Why does this war seem to lack coverage? With the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Syria and even the Vietnam war it seemed every unit had a journalist embedded. Here there seems to be, photographs, drone, cctv and grainy phone footage. Is it to do with the enemy tracking the press sending data, lack of uk/us personnel involvement or just not as many budding Kate Aides anymore?

Boris was once paid to be a journalist, send the c**t over.

[beefybake]

1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

Why does this war seem to lack coverage? With the Gulf War, Afghanistan, Syria and even the Vietnam war it seemed every unit had a journalist embedded. Here there seems to be, photographs, drone, cctv and grainy phone footage. Is it to do with the enemy tracking the press sending data, lack of uk/us personnel involvement or just not as many budding Kate Aides anymore?

Well, I do remember the coverage of the Vietnam war.  Photo journalism was everywhere, on the ground, in the gunships.., everywhere.

The journalists and reporters were given huge access at the sharp end. At all times they were reporting and writing for their employers, or independently.

All this open access had huge political repercussions when the US public could see what was happening. 

The aftermath was that the politicians and military resolved that, in future, they would control the access, and hence, the narrative of what the public could see.

What you refer to as 'embedding' is something that came about after Vietnam.  Highly controlled, with footage often reviewed by the military before it reaches public broacast.

Edited May 28, 2022 by beefybake

[Newbornbairn]

8 minutes ago, beefybake said:

Well, I do remember the coverage of the Vietnam war.  Photo journalism was everywhere, on the ground, in the gunships.., everywhere.

The journalists and reporters were given huge access at the sharp end. At all times they were reporting and writing for their employers, or independently.

All this open access had huge political repercussions when the US public could see what was happening. 

The aftermath was that the politicians and military resolved that, in future, they would control the access, and hence, the narrative of what the public could see.

What you refer to as 'embedding' is something that came about after Vietnam.  Highly controlled, with footage often reviewed by the military before it reaches public broacast.

There's also been a history of reporters giving away useful information to the other side. The BBC did this in the Falklands, warning the Argentinians about Goose Green and telling their air force to adjust the fuses on their bombs. In this conflict, a Russian reporter did a video report  standing beside an artillery piece that was firing. The Ukrainians geo-located it and destroyed the site. 

 

Quite a few journalists killed in this conflict - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/13/20-journalists-killed-in-ukraine-war-union-a77336

Edited May 28, 2022 by Newbornbairn

[ICTChris]

Weekly update from Michel Goya

https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/2022/05/point-de-situation-des-operations-en_28.html

 

Esssentially the three options are - stay and fight; counter attack against Popsana or withdraw to the river. Latter option is best militarily bit difficult politically.

Ukraine have let the military lead battlefield decisions but that could be tested if they are advised to withdraw from those cities. Probably the most difficult period of the war so far for the Ukrainians.

Edited May 28, 2022 by ICTChris