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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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23 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

translation: we are ready to help you retake Transnistria, you've got our number why don't you use it...

The Moldovans genuinely don't want Transnistria back is the thing. One of the most bizarre places in Europe and just ridiculously underdeveloped.

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3 hours ago, virginton said:

A base interest rate of 14% will be helping with that.

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As far as can be told, it seems that Ukrainian troops have withdrawn to avoid being encircled in the East.  Russian forces are advancing across the point of their attack - remains to be seen if falling back to avoid encirclement and to more defensible lines means Ukraine can stop this. 

Further North, the Russians have apparently stopped a Ukrainian advance towards Vovchansk out of Kharkiv.  Russian troops from further South have been sent to the city to prevent the threat to Russian ground communication lines.

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A 63 year old retired Russian Air Force General has allegedly been killed when the jet he was flying was shot down in Ukraine. Kanamet Botashev left the Russian Air Force after being found guilty of taking an SU-27 fighter jet without permission and crashing it while performing a “corkscrew manoeuvre”.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-61559430
 

 

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8 hours ago, ICTChris said:

A 63 year old retired Russian Air Force General has allegedly been killed when the jet he was flying was shot down in Ukraine. Kanamet Botashev left the Russian Air Force after being found guilty of taking an SU-27 fighter jet without permission and crashing it while performing a “corkscrew manoeuvre”.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-61559430
 

Guess they are running short of pilots in a big way if he got called back as a reservist at that age after doing something like that. I'd take all the twitter stuff about advances on Vovchansk with a pinch of salt. When an ITN reporter actually visited that area the Donets river was described as the frontline and it was made clear that there were snipers on the far bank.

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Seems that as some have been saying for a couple of weeks its attritional trench warfare now.

 

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Its like the grinding of WWI when slow moves to take towns and villages no one had heard of costing hundreds to thousands of lives. Severodonetsk that Russia has captured is a town of about 11 000 pre war. Europes largest army spends weeks trying to capture something the size of Carluke. 

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24

 

Quote

Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements—enabling them to make incremental measured gains. Russian forces are likely attempting to achieve several simultaneous encirclements of small pockets of Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts: the broader Severodonetsk area (including Rubizhne and Lysychansk), Bakhmut-Lysychansk, around Zolote (just northeast of Popasna), and around Ukrainian fortifications in Avdiivka. Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces only controlled approximately 10 percent of Luhansk Oblast as of May 15 (compared to 30 percent prior to the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022).[1] Russian forces have secured more terrain in the past week than efforts earlier in May. However, they have done so by reducing the scope of their objectives—largely abandoning operations around Izyum and concentrating on key frontline towns: Russian performance remains poor.

 

If this is to believed then they have yet again reduced the scope and scale of their operations. 

A slow motion tragady\trainwreck wrecking a country, an army and the worlds food security for goals that seem to have changed so constantly that its hard to work out what the Russian elites themselves believe any more. 

Going through the motions because they cannot think of anything else to do. 

I assume what is left of strategic planning is to await the point they asses Ukraine's reserves will start arriving in numbers and declare a unilateral ceasefire and hope their "I don't support Putin but" friends will be able to raise enough noise about how the US and Ukraine are responsible for this that some in the world will blame them rather than Russia for the food and energy crises. To be honest I am flying blind and trying to come up with a strategy for them rather than going on anything they have said. 

It has become a nihilistic war to salvage the pride of a tiny elite.

 

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