Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Ukrainians mysteriously shoot down a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea:

some chat online that it might have been a Patriot air defence system that was involved.

 

 

[ICTChris]

According to one Telegram channel police in the area of the incursion to Belgorod have been stood down. The authorities have said that as the attackers have allegedly stolen a number of police uniforms anyone dressed as a police officer should be considered an enemy combatant.

[Newbornbairn]

56 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

According to one Telegram channel police in the area of the incursion to Belgorod have been stood down. The authorities have said that as the attackers have allegedly stolen a number of police uniforms anyone dressed as a police officer should be considered an enemy combatant.

[LongTimeLurker]

This is all getting a wee bit mental:

 

[RuMoore]

 

[Newbornbairn]

[ICTChris]

Brutal article about the fighting around Bakhmut.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine

 

[welshbairn]

I don't think Medvedev plays the hardman at all convincingly, tries way too hard. I just remember him as that nervous smiley man who Putin let play at being President while he took a sabbatical.

 

[ICTChris]

The Russian MoD have said they've killed all the fighters who crossed the border at Belgorod but that is contradicted by reports from the ground and updated videos showing the pro-Ukrainian Russians firing mortars. 

There are also reports that a Russian helicopter was shot down but this could be spurious - there were also reports of this yesterday but they turned out to be inaccurate.

[TxRover]

On 22/05/2023 at 08:02, LongTimeLurker said:

Ukrainians mysteriously shoot down a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea:

some chat online that it might have been a Patriot air defence system that was involved.

 

 

With only two Patriot batteries in Ukraine, I’d be willing to bet one, if not both, are deployed near Kyiv. There is no way they forward deployed a battery to the Kherson area, and that would be necessary to put that reported shoot down even close to the effective range of a Patriot.

[LongTimeLurker]

One of them is known to be near Kyiv because that's where the hypersonic missiles have been shot down a lot of late, but given a lot of the incoming missiles come from the Black Sea fleet based in Crimea I would have thought somewhere near the Black Sea coast that could cover both Odesa and Kherson would make a lot of sense for one of those as well. Some of the missiles that have wound up hitting deep into western Ukraine have been reported to pass over Moldova on their way from Russian navy vessels that sail out of Sevastopol.

Have seen it argued that the Patriot system severely embarrassed Putin recently because the trip of a Chinese peace envoy to Kyiv had been expected to happen in the immediate aftermath of a devastating missile and drone raid but unexpectedly from a Russian and Chinese perspective they all got shot down. That made it easy for Zelensky to say the equivalent of "Naw, do one..." in Ukrainian to the visiting Chinese diplomats when the subject of trading land for peace was broached in a way that made the visitors look a little foolish.

 

[TxRover]

20 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

One of them is known to be near Kyiv because that's where the hypersonic missiles have been shot down a lot of late, but given a lot of the incoming missiles come from the Black Sea fleet based in Crimea I would have thought somewhere near the Black Sea coast that could cover both Odesa and Kherson would make a lot of sense for one of those as well. Some of the missiles that have wound up hitting deep into western Ukraine have been reported to pass over Moldova on their way from Russian navy vessels that sail out of Sevastopol.

Have seen it argued that the Patriot system severely embarrassed Putin recently because the trip of a Chinese peace envoy to Kyiv had been expected to happen in the immediate aftermath of a devastating missile and drone raid but unexpectedly from a Russian and Chinese perspective they all got shot down. That made it easy for Zelensky to say the equivalent of "Naw, do one..." in Ukrainian to the visiting Chinese diplomats when the subject of trading land for peace was broached in a way that made the visitors look a little foolish.

 

Given the effective range of a Patriot battery is well below the distance between the two cites, it’s improbable. To properly establish a defence against short-range ballistic and cruise missiles with Patriot, the batteries should be sited around 40 km apart. That would argue for a battery NE and SE of Kyiv.

[ICTChris]

Ukrainian naval drones operating 400km from Ukrainian controlled territory, attack a Russian recon ship in the Bosphoros Straits.  Russian ship appears to destroy at least one - Russian MoD claim all three were destroyed with no damage to the vessel.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by ICTChris

[Jacksgranda]

On 19/05/2023 at 20:33, ICTChris said:

Biden has said at the G7 that they won’t prevent any allies sending F-16s to Ukraine and that the US will assist in training Ukrainian pilots in Europe.

The whole thing sounds like it’s a medium term move rather than any immediate impact. Sounds like when main battle tanks were promised, although I assume it takes longer to be trained in flying a fighter jet than operating a tank. Willing to be corrected by P&B fighter jet pilots and tank commanders though.

@Sergeant Wilson

[TxRover]

Prigozhin treading quite close to getting a one-way trip out a window with his telegram statements about combat losses, the social issues within the losses, and a warning about a possible repeat of 1917.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-revolution-russian-elites-wont-send-kids-war-wagner-prigozhin-2023-5

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Prigozhin treading quite close to getting a one-way trip out a window with his telegram statements about combat losses, the social issues within the losses, and a warning about a possible repeat of 1917.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-revolution-russian-elites-wont-send-kids-war-wagner-prigozhin-2023-5

I interpret those comments as pro-Kremlin. I think he was saying to the oligarchy that they must offer up more military funding or it will be taken from them by the Kremlin.

It'd be great to believe an actual popular uprising was possible but Kremlin control over the population is near total. There's also no uniting oppositional movement, there is no bolshevism equivalent today in Russia. We've just seen that even in a society with more possibility, Turkey, the opposition couldn't rally around a uniting vision and therefore failed. Opposition to Putin will be similarly fragmented and incoherent. Eventually, the decline in living standards could motivate the masses in Russia to revolt but that wouldn't necessarily be accompanied by a demand to end the Ukraine occupation. Turkish economic decline led to this new opposition to Erdoğan but there's no chance of the next guy ending the occupation of northern Syria. Turks want a better deal from their government but remain indifferent to or even supportive of Turkish imperialism. Russians will be similar. 

[welshbairn]

The only opposition to Putin that's allowed are full blown Nazis like Igor Gerkin and his mates in the Angry Patriots Club, and Putin's old mafia pals from Leningrad like Prigozhin. Anyone who isn't a mad racist warmonger who complains is banged up in the gulags. With the Presidential election coming up I think Putin wants to look like the sensible moderate by letting scary nutters to dominate the very narrow opposition bandwidth.

[Sergeant Wilson]

16 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Ukrainian naval drones operating 400km from Ukrainian controlled territory, attack a Russian recon ship in the Bosphoros Straits.  Russian ship appears to destroy at least one - Russian MoD claim all three were destroyed with no damage to the vessel.

 

 

That looks like a motorised version of a boat from Lanark Loch.

[ICTChris]

Ukrainian source appears to show one of the naval drones got through to the Russian ship. No word on damage.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1661724151520849920?s=46&t=VI9PBOGiArQ8qgQBk99O4w
 

 

[ICTChris]

Russia and Belarus have signed an agreement permitting the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Unsure if this will happen - unclear if Belarus has the facilities required to store the weapons at this time.