Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

13 minutes ago, virginton said:

^^^ word salad 

^^^ deflection from answering

[vikingTON]

Answering what? There was an entire post that dismantled your nonsense claims. That you pretend that this doesn't exist and will no doubt throw another pile of intellectual faeces at the wall for somebody to clean up tomorrow is standard operating procedure by now. 

You're fooling nobody though. 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, virginton said:

Answering what? There was an entire post that dismantled your nonsense claims. That you pretend that this doesn't exist and will no doubt throw another pile of intellectual faeces at the wall for somebody to clean up tomorrow is standard operating procedure by now. 

You're fooling nobody though. 

If you wish to believe that, you are entitled to your opinion. Meanwhile, back to the current war…shall we review early posts?

[LongTimeLurker]

Meanwhile in and around Bakhmut:

 

 

[vikingTON]

8 hours ago, TxRover said:

If you wish to believe that, you are entitled to your opinion. Meanwhile, back to the current war…shall we review early posts?

And there it is, the usual *sweep sweep sweep* exercise after your latest clown running across a minefield display. 

Rinse and repeat, every single day, until a Texan village finally regains its idiot.

[ICTChris]

The Patriot battery that was damaged earlier this week has now been repaired.

There was another large scale attack on Kyiv last night with 20+ cruise missiles and four UAVs being shot down. Seems like this is going to be a pattern.

Edited May 18, 2023 by ICTChris

[Bairnardo]

30 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The Patriot battery that was damaged earlier this week has now been repaired.

There was another large scale attack on Kyiv last night with 20+ cruise missiles and four UAVs being shot down. Seems like this is going to be a pattern.

Who runs out first?

[ICTChris]

51 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Who runs out first?

I guess it depends inability to resupply. Ukraine was rumoured to be running low on air defence kissiles several months back - it was also referenced in the Discord leaks. There are ways to get round this though and there are producers and states with stocks who will looks to tide them over.

The level of Russian precision munitions and their ability to launch them is unknown really. Estimates vary but the level of a Ukrainian air defences is a major limitation on their air operations. They can’t operate in the way that they did in previous conflicts (Chechnya, Syria) because of the threat to their aircraft from MANPADS and SAMs. If Ukraine were to be provided with modern fighter jets then this would be increased as it would give greater ability to shoot down Russian jets air to air.

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

Who runs out first?

Russia, due to production bottlenecks. They are already using “smart” missiles produced in the last quarter of 2022 or the first quarter of 2023. They have stopped any usage of longer range weapons in battlefront or near battlefront areas in order to conserve them for deeper strikes, which requires the use of so called glide weapons, which brings Russian aircraft within the extended range of Ukrainian air defences (like happened a few days ago). Even more worrisome for the Russians is one of the Mi-8’s shot down the other day was reportedly equipped with the most recent jamming gear.

If the Russians have actually lost the ability to operate air missions within the battlefront air environment, that’s a huge blow for the Russian Army. It’s well and good to lob a TV guided glide weapon at the front lines, but if you have effectively lost the ability to attempt to interdict deep supply lines, then the battle is now nearly even on that front. The advantage Russia supposedly enjoyed pre-attack was this ability to sever Ukrainian supply lines. Now the Ukrainians, operating on interior lines, have an effective advantage.

A collateral benefit for the Ukrainians is the operational intelligence they are generating for NATO counties on their weapon systems use against the Russian equipment, which is a strong incentive to keep the Ukrainian supply up so more can be learned. The ability of the Patriot to intercept “hypersonic” Kinzhal missiles was predicted, but is now “proven”, which is priceless data for the U.S. and the UK will be happily toting up the results of Storm Shadow usage. Both countries probably had intelligence aircraft orbiting to observe the Russian attacks and defences to understand what happened and why.

[Sergeant Wilson]

8 hours ago, ICTChris said:

I guess it depends inability to resupply. Ukraine was rumoured to be running low on air defence kissiles several months back - it was also referenced in the Discord leaks. There are ways to get round this though and there are producers and states with stocks who will looks to tide them over.

The level of Russian precision munitions and their ability to launch them is unknown really. Estimates vary but the level of a Ukrainian air defences is a major limitation on their air operations. They can’t operate in the way that they did in previous conflicts (Chechnya, Syria) because of the threat to their aircraft from MANPADS and SAMs. If Ukraine were to be provided with modern fighter jets then this would be increased as it would give greater ability to shoot down Russian jets air to air.

I like the sound of them.

[Billy Jean King]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

I like the sound of them.

Supplied by the French I suspect

[Thane of Cawdor]

2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

Supplied by the French I suspect

Glaswegians, more likely.

[Hillonearth]

4 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

I like the sound of them.

[ICTChris]

Reports in the US that some, maybe all, of the Russian jets and helicopters shot down over the weekend were hit with Patriots. This would explain why Russia fired $200m worth of missiles at them.

Also, Ukrainian forces are reported to have retaken more parts of South Western Bakhmut, while Russian forces press on metre by metre in the city centre.  Read some analysis that Russia has moved army reinforcements to stop the flank advances but that Ukraine aren’t using any of their new brigades in this, meaning this could weaken other parts of Russias defences.

Edited May 18, 2023 by ICTChris

[TxRover]

20 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Reports in the US that some, maybe all, of the Russian jets and helicopters shot down over the weekend were hit with Patriots. This would explain why Russia fired $200m worth of missiles at them.

Unlikely, as the Air-Defense version has a sub-160 km range, while the Anti-Missile versions are 30-60 km, depending on the version. The S-300 and S-400 have 300-400 km range…and the Ukrainians have been very good at “adjusting” Russian weapons to surprise the Russians.

[ICTChris]

7 hours ago, TxRover said:

Unlikely, as the Air-Defense version has a sub-160 km range, while the Anti-Missile versions are 30-60 km, depending on the version. The S-300 and S-400 have 300-400 km range…and the Ukrainians have been very good at “adjusting” Russian weapons to surprise the Russians.

It’s in this CNN report - https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

It’s in this CNN report - https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

 

I understand, but the Patriot isn’t a large area denial weapon like the Russian S series of Ground-to-Air missiles. The maximum ranged Patriot variant has a range of 99 miles…the Russian air losses were reported as between 25 and 50 miles inside Russia. That would suggest the Ukrainians would have moved a Patriot battery, one of two defending Kyiv, within at least 50 miles of the Russian border. That would be closer to the Russian border almost than Kharkiv, which is not going to happen. The Patriot is not a shoot and scoot weapon, it takes hours to setup or takedown a Patriot battery, and additional time to calibrate the radar for maximum effectiveness…a process that has the radar emitting, and thus detectable to the Russians.

So, the CNN reports says “in recent weeks” and “at least one faraway Russian jet”. The only practical location would be a Russian jet, over Belarus, attempting to launch a glide weapon at the Kiyv area.

[Cosmic Joe]

If/ when Ukraine restores it's borders, will they be looking at repatriating Crimea? 

[LongTimeLurker]

Crimea is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine so they are definitely aiming to do that.

[Loonytoons]

4 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Crimea is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine so they are definitely aiming to do that.

Pretty grim that you have to destroy your own country to get rid of someone.

Tories have been at it for a while too though.