Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

What is the Scottish terrorists thing about? Is he getting us confused with the Irish?

[bennett]

21 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

What is the Scottish terrorists thing about? Is he getting us confused with the Irish?

celtic fans?

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Willing to go to Siberia on the condition that it's the training programme from Rocky IV.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

What is the Scottish terrorists thing about? Is he getting us confused with the Irish?

I guess he’s suggesting fomenting dissent and unrest in the UK, like the UK is doing in a part of Russia called Ukraine….yes, right.

[ICTChris]

Peter Murrell and Callum Beattie will be driving the motorhome that way tonight. No chance of extradition.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

 

 

 

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

There is at least one Scot that everyone would be happy to see shipped off to Siberia.

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Sherrif John Bunnell

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

There is at least one Scot that everyone would be happy to see shipped off to Siberia.

 

 

Haven't heard much about the biolabs in Ukraine for a while.  Spirit of February 2022 being channelled by Neil Oliver.

Back in those heady days one formerly prominent poster listed biolabs as one reason he supported the invasion.  What a time to be alive and unbanned from P&B.

Edited May 1, 2023 by ICTChris

[dirty dingus]

Oliver should do a serious called Toast where he walks up and down the front line looking for biolabs.

[jagfox]

22 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Haven't heard much about the biolabs in Ukraine for a while.  Spirit of February 2022 being channelled by Neil Oliver.

Back in those heady days one formerly prominent poster listed biolabs as one reason he supported the invasion.  What a time to be alive and unbanned from P&B.

I read a reference, to one in Sudan, the other day

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, jagfox said:

I read a reference, to one in Sudan, the other day

Clinton blew up a factory in Sudan that he claimed was making nerve gas, turned out it was making anti-malaria drugs and antibiotics. 

[ICTChris]

Reports that Ukraine has counter attacked in Bakhmut.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Reports that Ukraine has counter attacked in Bakhmut.

Ukrainian counterattacks, at the local level, seem to have recaptured some ground from the Russians. It’s a poor place for the long expected counterattack to be launched, but may well draw in additional Russian troops and weaken other areas.

[LongTimeLurker]

22 hours ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

There is at least one Scot that everyone would be happy to see shipped off to Siberia.

 

 

The narration track of his history documentaries used to be something along the lines of "....Britain...Britain...our land... Britain...Britain..." then rinse and repeat. Every bit as nationalist in his mindset as the SNP supporters he berates, just fixated by a different piece of coloured cloth. 

Not sure how accurate this was:

but this may not be entirely coincidental:

 

[ICTChris]

They've been using ferries since the bombing of the Kerch bridge last year, haven't they?  The railway line hasn't reopened yet after the attack, but the road bridge has.

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

They've been using ferries since the bombing of the Kerch bridge last year, haven't they?  The railway line hasn't reopened yet after the attack, but the road bridge has.

With the style of ferries they are using, I’d expect a drone and/or mine attack on a ferry soon. They are probably reticent due to the possibility of civilian casualties, but that’s something they can work around. Sinking a ferry, and blocking an unloading ramp, would be an excellent opportunity for Ukraine.

[ICTChris]

John Kirby, Communications director at the US National Security Council, has revealed that US intelligence shows that Russia has lost 20,000 troops killed since December, including probably around 10,000 in Bakhmut.  In all engagements since the end of the Second World War, the British Army has lost about 5,500 soldiers - that's in over 70 years.  Russia has likely lost twice that in five months.  A few years back there was a scandal about the US response to an ambush on a special forces group in Niger where four soldiers died, there were Congressional inquiries and a report was prepared by the Department of Defense.  For four soldiers dying.  

We are about eight months on from Ukraine's successes in the Kharkiv counter offensive and six months on from the liberation of Kherson.  Since then, Russia has mobilised 300,000 men - chaotically at first, which was to be expected, but they did it.  Russia took these men, and thousands of convicts used by Wagner and began another Donbas offensive in February.  They have made almost no gains and in every caculation have suffered horrible losses of both men and equipment.  They embarked on a campaign of missile, drone and air strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure to put pressure on the country - this has failed, Ukraine recently went back to exporting electricity and when missile salvos come now Ukraine regularly shoots down 90%+ of them.  The ones that get through do manage to hit civilian targets, as we can see from the attacks this week.

Some observers reckon that in the month of April Russia lost more territory than it gained due to Ukraine moving into zones that were previously contested or uncontrolled.  That's fairly wooly and hard to quantify but the fact that this is even a discussion just shows what a disaster this war has been for Russia.  The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will be very difficult and hard - it's easier to defend than attack, there are big questions about the terrain, the quality of Ukrainian forces and the training they've received.  But the opposite is also true - there are massive questions about the ability of Russian forces to defend against Ukraine and how they will cope.

[Bairnardo]

24 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

John Kirby, Communications director at the US National Security Council, has revealed that US intelligence shows that Russia has lost 20,000 troops killed since December, including probably around 10,000 in Bakhmut.  In all engagements since the end of the Second World War, the British Army has lost about 5,500 soldiers - that's in over 70 years.  Russia has likely lost twice that in five months.  A few years back there was a scandal about the US response to an ambush on a special forces group in Niger where four soldiers died, there were Congressional inquiries and a report was prepared by the Department of Defense.  For four soldiers dying.  

We are about eight months on from Ukraine's successes in the Kharkiv counter offensive and six months on from the liberation of Kherson.  Since then, Russia has mobilised 300,000 men - chaotically at first, which was to be expected, but they did it.  Russia took these men, and thousands of convicts used by Wagner and began another Donbas offensive in February.  They have made almost no gains and in every caculation have suffered horrible losses of both men and equipment.  They embarked on a campaign of missile, drone and air strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure to put pressure on the country - this has failed, Ukraine recently went back to exporting electricity and when missile salvos come now Ukraine regularly shoots down 90%+ of them.  The ones that get through do manage to hit civilian targets, as we can see from the attacks this week.

Some observers reckon that in the month of April Russia lost more territory than it gained due to Ukraine moving into zones that were previously contested or uncontrolled.  That's fairly wooly and hard to quantify but the fact that this is even a discussion just shows what a disaster this war has been for Russia.  The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will be very difficult and hard - it's easier to defend than attack, there are big questions about the terrain, the quality of Ukrainian forces and the training they've received.  But the opposite is also true - there are massive questions about the ability of Russian forces to defend against Ukraine and how they will cope.

Surely there's a negotiation tipping point soon where Ukraine and their allies can offer Russia no more than leave now with some bullshit about having achieved objectives, versus continuing to press and continuing to supply the means to absolutely rout them out of Ukraine and leave Russias military fucked for years? 

[ICTChris]

44 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Surely there's a negotiation tipping point soon where Ukraine and their allies can offer Russia no more than leave now with some bullshit about having achieved objectives, versus continuing to press and continuing to supply the means to absolutely rout them out of Ukraine and leave Russias military fucked for years? 

I don't think there will be any negotiations for a while, probably not for the rest of the year.  Neither side wants to negotiate at this point, they both think they can achieve their goals on the battlefield.

Ukraine want to liberate territory that Russia has captured - primarily since February 2022 but also the territory taken since 2014.  They have built a number of brigades, trained them and incorporated Western equipment to launch an offensive to win back territory.  No-one knows where this will happen yet and how successful it will be, but it's clear that Ukraine thinks they can do something.  

Russia think that they can withstand a Ukrainian offensive and essentially wear down Ukraine in a long, drawn out conflict.  They calculate that Ukraine's partners will reduce support and that Ukraine's ability to fight on will be hamstrung.  At the very least in this scenario Ukraine will be unable to push Russian troops out of it's territory, in the most successful scenario for Russia the Ukrainian army collapses and the country are forced to surrender or sue for peace on Russia's terms.

This is kind of what Russia have been trying to do since it became clear after a few weeks that Ukraine wasn't going to fold immediately.  It failed very badly in the Donbas, where Russia's initial offensive caused them to expend large volumes of equipment and men to take very small areas of territory.  Ukraine then pushed Russia out of much larger areas in Kherson and Kharkiv, partly due to Russia's terrible management of it's military.  

Russia has been gambling on military aid stopping for most of the war but now we are seeing Patriot missile batteries, Western main battle tanks and sophisticated artillery systems in Ukraine.  None of that was expected at the start of the war and the threats by Russia have been revealed to be toothless.  

Where Russia might be right is what happens after this offensive.  A total failure (ala Russia's latest Donbas offensive) or a total victory (something akin to the sweep through Kharkiv Oblast in September) are highly unlikely but if Ukraine succeed in pushing Russia back but not out, what happens then?  I think there will be louder voices among Ukraine's backers for a settlement or at least discussion of a settlement.

[Salvo Montalbano]

Surely the western powers would be looking for some kind of "status quo plus" (Russia keeps Criimea, power sharing/autonomy in Donbass with borders protecting by UN/NATO "Peacekeeping Force", Ukraine not allowed to join NATO for x number of years, trade both ways back up and running with some kind of guaranteed access to Black Sea etc) but can't see current Russian leadership going for that. Can't seen Ukraine or the West accepting Donbass as new parts of Russian Federation unless there are serious sweeteners included (no idea what they'd be) so we are at the classic impasse. And then there's the wild card in China.