Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

Putin has visited occupied Mariupol. Of the 14,000 children named in the ICC indictment 1,000 were from Mariupol. He was shown several rebuilt buildings with suitably grateful locals on hand.

[Newbornbairn]

That's Mariupol that Russia carpet bombed using heavy bombers and unguided bombs, a violation of the Geneva Convention -

Carpet bombing of cities, towns, villages, or hamlets containing a concentration of civilians is considered a war crime[5] as of Article 51 of the 1977 Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions.[6][7][8]

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/15/russian-bombers-just-carpet-bombed-mariupol/?sh=72ae4a8f7b28

[LongTimeLurker]

Not sure what to make of this:

Guess you can argue that it can probably be loaded with more explosives than a drone. Maybe the Russians have to stay out in the open more to spot these coming where you can target them better by mortar etc?

This still looks like people with way too much time on their hands though but with self-driving car technology maybe you don't need a deluded suicide bomber dreaming about 72 virgins these days to do some of the truck bombs that caused so much carnage in Iraq and Syria?

[Newbornbairn]

 

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Not sure what to make of this:

Guess you can argue that it can probably be loaded with more explosives than a drone. Maybe the Russians have to stay out in the open more to spot these coming where you can target them better by mortar etc?

This still looks like people with way too much time on their hands though but with self-driving car technology maybe you don't need a deluded suicide bomber dreaming about 72 virgins these days to do some of the truck bombs that caused so much carnage in Iraq and Syria?

Might be effective against a hardpoint/bunker IF you had a sufficiently concealed approach route. Also against a parked vehicle. Mortars are a difficult to target accurately weapon outside clear line of sight, and finicky even with line of sight.

[Newbornbairn]

 

[ICTChris]

A local woman shouted "It's not true, it's all for show" from a window as Putin did a scripted meet the locals in occupied Mariupol.

 

 

[beefybake]

6 hours ago, ICTChris said:

A local woman shouted "It's not true, it's all for show" from a window as Putin did a scripted meet the locals in occupied Mariupol.

 

 

Wonder what happened next for her.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

7 minutes ago, beefybake said:

Wonder what happened next for her.

I'm sure it involved a window.

[ICTChris]

Article About the attack on Ukrainian utility infrastructure and how the Russian attempt to blackout the country over winter failed - so far.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ukraine-survived-russias-mission-to-turn-off-the-lights-winter-is-over-and-were-still-here-8668c5f5
 

[ICTChris]

Thread by Rob Lee on Bakhmut. He visited the city a few weeks ago with a number of other analysts, Michael Kofman has also spoken about their trip on several podcasts.

 

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Ukraine reported as having hit the main railway junction in Crimea with drones:

 

 

[ICTChris]

Alleged wreckage of the drone

[ICTChris]

Girkin posted a typically doomery update where he compares the battle of Bakhmut to Stalingrad but casting the Ukrainians as the Soviets, who have held on in a seemingly hopeless situation while building reserves for a decisive counter attack.

[LongTimeLurker]

Also a lot more directly critical of Vlad than he used to be:

 

[welshbairn]

Igor's heading for defenestration or Siberia imo. Maybe he'll escape to the Hague where he'll get well looked after for his role in MH17.

Edited March 21, 2023 by welshbairn

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Alleged wreckage of the drone

It’s strange, as that tail doesn’t match anything Ukrjet openly talks about producing…but it looks like it might be a munition of the UJ-22/31 platform (few pictures to judge by). Since the UJ-31 seems be a loitering munition delivered from a UJ-22, and targeted at static/immobile platform targets, that would match the strike and range. That’s basically a UJ-22 with an autonomous guidance sub-munition (UJ-31) that has self target selection software and an RPG-7 warhead.

Edited March 21, 2023 by TxRover

[alta-pete]

[welshbairn]

Igor getting to the nub of it. 

Quote

At the same time, our president, his entourage and all the "rich and beautiful" VIP officials are holy and sinless ... It was not they who plundered the country, de-industrialized it, raised the retirement age, and then frivolously and completely without preparation they got into a big war.

Quote

Thanks to the oligarchs and the part of officials serving their interests, most of the high-tech production inherited from the USSR has been destroyed in 30 years. And now a lot is required at the front, from drones to protective equipment. Citizens themselves are throwing themselves into this. There are still no rumors that one of the oligarchs would help the defenders of the Motherland.

Such an elite is a natural conductor of the economic model set by the West for embedding Russia into world capitalism as a semi-periphery of raw materials. The elite programmed by an external enemy is hardly capable of anything more than defeat.

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by welshbairn