Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dorlomin]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Wonder what this is all about:

 

Xi and his faction took total control of the CCP in the 20th party conference a few weeks back. It seems his foreign policy is continuing to become more hawkish as he is now supplying a belligerent in a war. They did this a little in the 60s and 70s but to no great effect and simply disappeared from that in the 80s. So it seems to mark China now actively supporting belligerents, specifically those against US allies. Seems quite the change. 

I'd assume what Russia wants more than anything from China is the DJI Mavic drones and others. Though other subcomponents and machine tools for their defence industry and even perhaps things like clothing and armour might be among the non lethal kit being bought. 

Hard to read what it really means but I think it may be pretty significant. And it may be that Xi "feels" he cannot see Russia lose. But still not willing to swallow the razor blade of supplying lethal aid. (Sorry for the metaphor). 

Speaks loudly to how much influence Scholtz had on him. 

 

[ICTChris]

Regarding the Bakhmut photos from earlier, there are videos on Telegram from there that are horrific - soldiers clearly suffering/dying from hypothermia, Wagner convicts being sent on what are effectively human wave attacks and being wiped out like fish in a barrell.  From what I can see and read the military value of Bakhmut is pretty low, even if Russia capture it without the Lyman/Izyum area to the North they can't really push on from there.  There are lots of rumours that they attacks are essentially political - it's Prigozhyn and Wagner trying to show they are the ones on the offensive and taking territory to benefit them in Moscow. 

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Regarding the Bakhmut photos from earlier, there are videos on Telegram from there that are horrific - soldiers clearly suffering/dying from hypothermia, Wagner convicts being sent on what are effectively human wave attacks and being wiped out like fish in a barrell.  From what I can see and read the military value of Bakhmut is pretty low, even if Russia capture it without the Lyman/Izyum area to the North they can't really push on from there.  There are lots of rumours that they attacks are essentially political - it's Prigozhyn and Wagner trying to show they are the ones on the offensive and taking territory to benefit them in Moscow. 

They seem to have been at if for about 4 months now without making any progress, can't be doing Prigozhyn's reputation any good.

[ICTChris]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

They seem to have been at if for about 4 months now without making any progress, can't be doing Prigozhyn's reputation any good.

Apparently the Russians have transferred some of the equipment and troops that were withdrawn from Kherson to Bakhmut so they seem to be backing him up.

 

[welshbairn]

On 26/11/2022 at 15:16, Bairnardo said:

They have been lobbing missiles about Ukraine for months though. How do we know any missile has gone undetected by NATO monitoring? NATO have decided not to directly do anything about it. That doesnt neccesisarily mean that any of them have evaded detection. It would presumably be different story if a missile was tracked heading towards a NATO country... 

A Soviet era drone carrying explosives managed to pass through Romanian, Hungarian and Croatian air defences before exploding in a Zagreb car park in March.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/13/crashed-military-drone-in-croatia-contained-explosives-say-investigators

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

A Soviet era drone carrying explosives managed to pass through Romanian, Hungarian and Croatian air defences before exploding in a Zagreb car park in March.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/04/13/crashed-military-drone-in-croatia-contained-explosives-say-investigators

Exactly, and hurt no one. They tracked it but didn’t try to shoot it down because it was headed for water. Shooting stuff down can cause problems, so if you don’t have to, you monitor. In that case, there was no prior data, and it was a recon style drone rigged with an aircraft bomb…something not evident at first view. I suspect they will splash the next drone as soon as it gets over any relatively uninhabited area.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Exactly, and hurt no one. They tracked it but didn’t try to shoot it down because it was headed for water. Shooting stuff down can cause problems, so if you don’t have to, you monitor. In that case, there was no prior data, and it was a recon style drone rigged with an aircraft bomb…something not evident at first view. I suspect they will splash the next drone as soon as it gets over any relatively uninhabited area.

It crashed next to a student dorm and damaged 40 cars, so I'd say it was down to luck that nobody was killed. The Croatian PM was not happy.

https://n1info.hr/english/news/croatias-pm-nato-members-failed-to-react-to-drone-incident/

 

[TxRover]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It crashed next to a student dorm and damaged 40 cars, so I'd say it was down to luck that nobody was killed. The Croatian PM was not happy.

https://n1info.hr/english/news/croatias-pm-nato-members-failed-to-react-to-drone-incident/

 

100% agree, it was likely, effectively, Russia’s free pass.

[TxRover]

Interesting little item…and damn near every “friendly” country has a couple of C-130’s…

From Strategy Page dot Com: “November 28, 2022: The U.S. Air Force has tested a novel system called Rapid Dragon for rapidly delivering cruise missiles. This involves placing the missiles on a cargo aircraft pallet. Four missiles are on each pallet in a 2x2 configuration. Currently the JASSM-ER air-to-surface missile is used. Each of these weighs a ton, with a 450 kg warhead and a range of 1,000 kilometers. Guidance is GPS with a slightly less accurate unjammable INS backup. The pallet is pushed out the back of a C-130 or C-17 transport. A parachute slows the pallet’s descent and stabilizes it whereupon the missiles launch. The transport carries a computerized battle management system that allows the GPS locations to be changed at the last minute before the pallet leaves the aircraft.

Rapid Dragon enables the air force to rapidly move these missiles to remote locations for immediate use in attacking a variety of targets, including SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) missions. Moreover the C-130 can operate from short airfields and make several flights a day to launch Rapid Dragon missiles. Each pallet weighs up to 9.9 tons and carries either JDAM-ER or anti-ship missiles with a range of 800 kilometers. Up to nine missiles can be carried on a pallet, depending on the size of each missile. 

The system has been tested several times since it entered service in 2021. The latest test was in November off the north coast of Norway, which is adjacent to the naval bases of the Russian Northern Fleet.”

[Sergeant Wilson]

6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

It crashed next to a student dorm 

Did it wake them?

[ICTChris]

Taking strikes behind enemy lines to the extreme here.

 

[Cosmic Joe]

2 hours ago, TxRover said:

Interesting little item…and damn near every “friendly” country has a couple of C-130’s…

From Strategy Page dot Com: “November 28, 2022: The U.S. Air Force has tested a novel system called Rapid Dragon for rapidly delivering cruise missiles. This involves placing the missiles on a cargo aircraft pallet. Four missiles are on each pallet in a 2x2 configuration. Currently the JASSM-ER air-to-surface missile is used. Each of these weighs a ton, with a 450 kg warhead and a range of 1,000 kilometers. Guidance is GPS with a slightly less accurate unjammable INS backup. The pallet is pushed out the back of a C-130 or C-17 transport. A parachute slows the pallet’s descent and stabilizes it whereupon the missiles launch. The transport carries a computerized battle management system that allows the GPS locations to be changed at the last minute before the pallet leaves the aircraft.

Rapid Dragon enables the air force to rapidly move these missiles to remote locations for immediate use in attacking a variety of targets, including SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) missions. Moreover the C-130 can operate from short airfields and make several flights a day to launch Rapid Dragon missiles. Each pallet weighs up to 9.9 tons and carries either JDAM-ER or anti-ship missiles with a range of 800 kilometers. Up to nine missiles can be carried on a pallet, depending on the size of each missile. 

The system has been tested several times since it entered service in 2021. The latest test was in November off the north coast of Norway, which is adjacent to the naval bases of the Russian Northern Fleet.”

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Cosmic Joe

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Taking strikes behind enemy lines to the extreme here.

 

Seems CAR rebels launched a small bombing attack from Chad. 4 bombs, and only material damage…no word on any pallets used or damaged…but the number 4 is interesting…

[welshbairn]

4 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Did it wake them?

Happened at 11pm so they were probably too pished to notice.

[Newbornbairn]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-pravdyne-grave.html?

 

Quote

Russian Retreat Reveals Signs of an Atrocity in a Ukrainian Village

f**k Russia, f**k Russians, f**k their apologists. 

[welshbairn]

 

 

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

 

 

I feel another sledgehammer video coming on. That, or he needs to stay on the ground floor and away from windows.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, TxRover said:

I feel another sledgehammer video coming on. That, or he needs to stay on the ground floor and away from windows.

I was wondering if he's terminally ill and doesn't give a f**k. Or that Prigozhyn's got some seriously powerful enemies.

[TxRover]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

I was wondering if he's terminally ill and doesn't give a f**k. Or that Prigozhyn's got some seriously powerful enemies.

He’s terminally ill alright, but just doesn’t know it.

[welshbairn]

Weird take by the Pope. It's not really the Russians, it's them pesky Muslims and Buddhists.

Quote

When I speak about Ukraine, I speak of a people who are martyred. If you have a martyred people, you have someone who martyrs them. When I speak about Ukraine, I speak about the cruelty because I have much information about the cruelty of the troops that come in. Generally, the cruelest are perhaps those who are of Russia but are not of the Russian tradition, such as the Chechens, the Buryati and so on. Certainly, the one who invades is the Russian state. This is very clear. Sometimes I try not to specify so as not to offend and rather condemn in general, although it is well known whom I am condemning. It is not necessary that I put a name and surname.

https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2022/11/28/pope-francis-interview-america-244225